Rakesh Kumar

$NIO

If street treats $NIO ER fairly, I don’t see a reason why SP should not be up >20% today alone even after discounting it for being a Chinese company.

$NIO Vehicle delivery up 90+% YoY, Improving Vehicle Margin QoQ to 18.8% now, 2nd quarter of operating profitability excluding stock comp, cash reserves improving each quarter now sitting on $7B of cash. Safe to say that bankruptcy concerns are completely off the table and full year profitability is almost guaranteed. Only 2nd pure play EV player after @Tesla to achieve profitability. Operating at 1/100th of Tesla’s m-cap.

Any reason @Tesla bulls/fans don’t track/comment on $NIO as the worthy competition in EV space. Growing more than 50% YoY and clear path to profitability evident by last 2 quarters of operating profit.

@shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc Goes on to show the incredible execution speed from $LMND. Feels like a switch flip to go live in a new state.

@Lemonade_Inc Renters is now live in South Dakota 💪

Thanks for doing this @Neil_X10. This creates so much value for the community and gives opportunity to everyone to settle their doubts through discussion especially for the ones who are on fences regarding their $LMND investments. I must say lately I have started to appreciate @ShadyJosh5 input on all this given his prior industry experience.

Thanks to everyone who participated — one of our longest $LMND spaces to date but lots of ground covered! Hope others find this useful. S/O @ShadyJosh5 @slipperyklown @anthonyisonline @PrinPaska @Leinad7331 @CuspInvest @MarkPaddey

@Neil_X10 I will be sad if LMND gets acquired because the founders most likely will leave and we might not see the true upside of LMND.

I jumped on $LMND bandwagon back in 2022 around 70$ stock price purely on the unlimited TAM, superior product experience and the fact that industry was ripe to be disrupted. To be honest, I did not do a lot of due diligence until after watching Paperbag videos much later on. My initial goal was to see $LMND achieve 30B M-CAP over 5 years time horizon from 2023. But having now followed the company close enough in last 3 years, I can also see the clear path for this to become 100B M-CAP and great in long term. My current view is to see LMND is 30% compounder each year and I will be extremly satisfied with that as long as that continues.

Thoughts on $LMND post Q1 2026 ER from a personal investment perspective. I've been following the Lemonade story since way before the IPO, having come across Daniel Schrieber and the original peer to peer business model in circa 2016. Luckily I missed out on the stock price action post IPO and through 2021, but got very interested in the stock in early 2022 when stock had fallen from peak 183 to around $18, and had a good hard look at whether the company could achieve it's claims. Watched many a @PaperBagInvest video before we ever crossed paths online or invested, he is the OG in the stock. The company suffered through a period of technical challenges in 2022 - 2024, mostly to do with macro inflation increasing claims costs at the same time as the mechanics (and regulatory rate filing limitations) would not allow Lemonade to match risk with rate - i.e. because inflation took off so dramatically in the 2022 period, writing business was simply not profitable. The management team took the very sensible and well signposted approach of taking their foot off the gas until inflation calmed down and regulatory approvals allowed rates to catch up to the cost of future claims. The earnings reports in this period were terrible, with a double whammy of poor topline growth alongside dismal bottom line results and large EBITDA losses. Understandably the stock struggled in the $12 - $18 range. I first invested in early 2022 but sold out a few times, luckily at some local peaks and traded pairs with Tesla in 2022 - 2023/24 which worked well. Then from around Sept 2023 I began to seriously ask the question: what would it look like in 20 years if I just committed to holding this stock from a $1bn market capitalization? What happens if the company does get through the rate change quagmire, and get back to a 30% long term growth rate? What if the claimed tech does result in collapsing loss adjusting expenses? What if there is truth to the claim that AI can literally run the company with limited human oversight? The conclusion I came to was that IF Lemonade could achieve the things laid out so eloquently in the earnings reports, albeit having to see past the near term market and mechanical challenges, the company had a clear path to a $100bn and greater market cap. So logically, all one had to do was hold one's nose and get past inflation/rate/capital adequacy concerns, and hold the stock. My background as a general insurance actuary massively helped here, as I could understand clearly the mechanics of why near term challenges would go away in time, and why Lemonade could have a clear 10% or more loss ratio advantage over the competition once they hit scale. That's a huge differential in a market where many insurers struggle to maintain a 90% combined ratio. Pricing elasticity means a slightly lower price than competitors translates into massive market share gains. Fast forward to early 2024 and the story hit a new trajectory of accelerating growth, increasing gross profit. The stock rapidly re-rated to $50 around the Nov 2024 investor day as investors finally got it. The stock hit a peak of ~$100 in Jan 2026 and has since halved to around $54, leading to frustration among newer investors and people looking for a quick buck. My own perspective is twofold: firstly, if you had invested $100,000 on 10th May 2024 at $16.58 you would now have $329,000 on 8th May 2026, a compound return of 81%. Not too shabby, notwithstanding the recent fall from $100. Secondly, if the thesis still holds, and Lemonade has an understandable, relatively low risk path to $100bn market cap, then all we have to do is hold and the returns will be astronomical from the current $4.2bn market cap. Investors like me with a cost basis around $17 for the bulk of shares held have had a 4x return so far, and I'm in it for the eventual 100x. Everything I read in the last four earnings reports put the trajectory squarely on the original thesis. Almost all of the data points we predicted and were looking for in the thesis that long term bulls agreed upon in late 2023 are in place and being hit consistently. The two areas of concern introduced in Q1 26 ER are: Stock based comp being higher than before (to me this is a non-relevant issue - if the stock goes up, happy for Daniel, Shai etc to create and capture value) The underlying operating expenses minus marketing increasing from around $85m per quarter in 2022 - 2024 to $110m in most recent ER. I give two thoughts to this: firstly, I think from Shai's comments on Q4 earnings call that the team are behind the scenes building infrastructure for future products that we don't know about (same as in 2022 a big amount of opex $ was to build the car product) - and secondly, a decent chunk of it is related to interest payable on the general catalyst programme. Just as Lemonade was using 75% then 55% and now 20% quota share, and the reduction increases revenue and retained profit, so they will in due course close the general catalyst programme and retain the 16% IRR for the company profit account. Capital constraints mean that is some way off, but eventually it will go away and the OPEX line will come down. Overall in my opinion the underlying Lemonade bull thesis is fully intact, and without going overboard on detail I believe the data points in last 3 earnings reports overwhelmingly give evidence that we are exactly on the trajectory we want to be on. The path to $100bn or greater market cap is clear to see if you have a long enough timeframe and patience. A better question than looking at the current stock price is, what kind of investor am I? Am I willing to park a good chunk of capital for 20 years to get an eventual 100x pay off? I asked myself those questions over the past 3 years and am fully committed to seeing the course. I will of course sell some along the way (around $180-$200) but the bulk of my investment is in it for the 20 year win. Hope to see some long term bulls be patient and chill as the story plays out. Not investment advice or influence, my risk tolerance is very high compared to an average investor and I have been relaxed about a large reduction in net worth over past six months. Many investors would sell at the bottom and lose, so if that's you then do diversify and use adequate risk management. Do not buy Lemonade stock if you get nervous about volatility. Good luck!

What do you prefer more - A stock that multiplies rapidly 2,3,4X in short span of time discounting multiple years of future earnings way ahead of it’s fundamentals or a stock that is a consistent compounder that grows 20-30% each year inline with it’s fundamentals? I view $LMND as a 30% CAGR compounder for the next decade and beyond.

Loved all the election results that have come through this evening. Largely, anti-incumbency seems to be the deciding factor in all three major states: Tamilnadu, West Bengal and Keralam. The real insight for me in these results are that people across the country are looking for credible alternatives in the power. TN results are the biggest testimony to that where a mere 2 years old party has thrown out deep rooted dynasty based parties.

@bhagya_rana I wonder what’s the inside news. It’s volume driven move suggesting that there’s been some insider information. May be blockbuster Q4 driven by water route disruption

Afcom Holdings #afcom CMP - 960 38.9% up! 🔥🔥🔥 #afcomHoldings

In India, human life and people’s time seems to have extremely low to no value. Waiting for 3+ hours and counting waiting at Passport Seva Kendra after having an appointment. What is the point of appointment system in this case? ☹️😞😥

@ASchulz888 @Ironic_Ape @RealJimChanos @shai_wininger @kidfrancescoli 💯

I do have some thoughts on SBC as well. There were some special circumstances this Q, as you point out. And there was the recent expiry of the 2021 incentive plan (granted near the all-time peak), which removed a lot of upside optionality for management. The board may have felt compelled to do something to offset that impact. Also I feel that the senior leadership team is doing a hell of a job and deserve to get paid. It is also worth pointing out that $LMND has continued to leverage SBC (i.e. SBC / revenues has been on a steady downward trend). So as long as SBC continues to scale like opex and not like revenues I don't think there is a problem long-term. In my mind, the main problem here was one of optics. In an environment where investors are asking a lot more questions about SBC their guidance for a higher run rate of SBC invites questions like the ones I was responding to. If $LMND wanted to put these questions to rest permanently they could do what some other companies have done and set clearer targets around continued SBC leverage. But that is up to them. And to reiterate, in substance I don't think there is a problem here.

I get where you are coming from. Looking only at these headline numbers, you might come to that conclusion. But one thing to keep in mind. $LMND signaled on the 4Q25 earnings call that they were seeing opportunities for high ROI investments, particularly in marketing and cross selling. Expenses did rise in 1Q26, but so did the evidence of the ROI on these investments. Marketing efficiency (defined as gross IFP added / growth spend) jumped sharply to the highest since 2Q24. And management called out a doubling in cross selling dollars Y/Y on the 1Q26 call, among other supportive anecdotes. $LMND has made it clear for a while that their objective is not to maximize their 2026 EBITDA, but rather to maximize long-term value subject to the constraint of achieving their long-term guidance target of positive EBITDA in 4Q26. The reason that EBITDA guidance was not raised more appears to be that they are doubling down on high ROI investments that shareholders should be excited about, and that will result in faster value compounding over time. But of course the associated expenses are incurred today, while the revenues accrue over the life of the newly acquired policy holders. Modeling the resulting higher growth at better unit economics (due to better marketing efficiency) yields higher, not lower profitability in future years. Maybe this could have been communicated more clearly, but the fact that $LMND is succeeding in improving marketing efficiency in an environment where many companies are struggling with this exact problem (due to changes in Google search, LLM impact, rising social media costs, ...) is a material positive. I get that the current market is a "shoot first, ask questions later" environment, so maybe you are right and headlines are more important than underlying economics for now (except perhaps in a few semis / AI infrastructure companies). And the stock traded as you suggested yesterday, so kudos to you. But in my opinion the long-term story for $LMND got better with this earnings report, not worse.