Alex Wice

Even with gold over $5k, we might still be in relatively early innings of a massive run on gold. If previous bull runs on gold are an indication, we are still looking at amazing 50% to 300% gains from here. If this is a more unique situation, it might even be bigger. Buys have mostly been from central banks, which have christened gold as the tried and true best ponzi in the world amidst the weakening dollar. That's why I don't think this is a blowoff top any time soon like most people think. I think only mostly the smart money is getting in, we are still in the 4th inning, and the dumb money is oblivious to the financial situation on the ground. With the gamblification of finance, everyone loves a good "runner". Think back to late 2020, early 2021 for crypto: when people were yeeting into coins every day on robinhood, and talk about crypto was nonstop. Or think back to GME when everyone piled on. We are not anywhere close to this level of mania and exuberance about gold. I think as gold and silver continues to run, attention on them will grow and metals have a chance to really, seriously rip, even from here. This is the power of reflexivity: if people decide, this is when the music is going to stop, everyone is ready to rip it in. With the size of the asset, all big money players are on the field too. The notion that "gold is real money" is not a new idea, it's actually an old idea - fiat is an experimental bubble. Ponzis depend on belief and a lot of this comes from the meme value, the strength of the narrative. Gold being the most lindy, being synonymous with wealth, its potency as a ponzi is unmatched. Gold simply has the best narrative in the zeitgeist. To use the now famous words ironically, when it comes to ponzis, "there is no second best." The best of course clearly being gold. Which brings us to BTC. Despite BTC having better technical factors, I don't see the same level of belief anymore. Nowadays people only bought crypto to get rich, sans belief, which means you dump reflexively on the way down because you dont believe in it. And even now those tourists are mostly gone. Plus, you can't even get multiples on it because everything else worth investing into (gold, ai, robotics) is ripping while BTC stays flat. This is really dangerous for BTC's long term future and could result in an Ethereum-like situation where it languishes for years before collapsing in price as people question the value of holding a risky asset for years without realized returns. There are now solutions to having an acceptably fast and secure blockchain that don't require a huge ponzi attached to it. Again, if somehow enough people believed BTC is real money worth saving their wealth into, then everyone is forced to own it eventually, but the problem is this belief doesn't seem to be growing like maybe there was a case for years ago, it seems to be shrinking. I don't know if bitcoin ultimately makes it or doesn't make it, but I prepare for both outcomes and I think it's risky to assume that bitcoin is a sacred cow that can't be slaughtered. I hope bitcoin makes it but I think owning gold (as well as tsla and goog) are slam dunk allocations that you need to be exposed to, and now isn't too late when you look at very high timeframes.

@ilyasut This is theater. Domestic mass surveillance means allies spy on each other. "No autonomous weapons" has already been walked back to "human responsibility", meaning a suit approved the autonomy. Also, it's not like it mattered anyways, AI can jailbreak itself in five seconds.

It’s extremely good that Anthropic has not backed down, and it’s siginficant that OpenAI has taken a similar stance. In the future, there will be much more challenging situations of this nature, and it will be critical for the relevant leaders to rise up to the occasion, for fierce competitors to put their differences aside. Good to see that happen today.

@Jackkk Tipping culture is complete dogshit. Shame is a strategy employed by servicepeople to procure extra tips. The tipping system is used by employers to squeeze money out of more generous customers. Customers should demand the establishment ban it.

MrBeast explains why he now ALWAYS asks for a receipt “One of the first times someone paid for my meal, I didn’t get a receipt. I asked the waiter, ‘So I’m good to go?’ They said yeah. Then the next day it’s on the front page of Reddit with the headline MrBeast didn’t tip” “But they conveniently leave out that someone else paid the bill. It’s like, one of the largest philanthropists in the world can’t afford to tip? I didn’t even get the bill. I don’t carry cash, how do you want me to tip? Do you want me to wave my hand and spawn some money? “So now if someone pays for my meal, I won’t leave until someone gives me a receipt so I can leave a tip”

An insane but predictable stance from CFTC, which affirmed its intent to police insider trading on event contracts. Insider trading laws aren't about morality, they exist to protect market makers' profits. Curbing toxic flow can improve liquidity. MMs can simply choose not to make "insider" events, such as TIME Person of the Year. Venues can simply choose not to list these events. Every bid, ask, and list is voluntary. Incentivizing people who know the outcome is the whole point of a prediction market. Otherwise it is just gambling.

@zhusu Really great article, congrats

@rampagepoker Confirmed top on Pokémon cards.

I started this Pokemon card collection journey just 6 months ago in August, 2024. Ever since, I’ve been hooked getting back into this franchise I once loved as a kid. It started with late nights researching what cards existed, then being completely overwhelmed with the catalogue of modern, mid-era, and vintage cards on the market, and finally flabbergasted at the prices of these little cardboard squares could amount to. As the sticker shock subsided and my love for Pokemon reignited, there was one card that stuck out amongst all else - the Rayquaza Gold Star specifically PSA 10. At the time, rumors had it the card was worth between $150,000 - $200,000. An unimaginable number that prices out the majority of all people on this planet, including myself. But at least the beauty of this hobby is it can appeal to everyone no matter your income level. From $1 binders, $7 packs, all the way up to the grails of the high end market like $1M cards, there’s something for everyone who enjoys the hobby and it embraces you with open arms. So I started slowly, buying $25-100 slabs of some real cute pokemon (Azumarill) and learning more and more about this hobby that I’ve lost my relationship with for the better part of 20 years. From all the card shows I attended, the countless hours scrolling eBay or Facebook marketplace, or even the most random places I’ve driven to just to catch a raid on pokemon go.. any reasonable person would think I’m insane. But for the last 20~ years, I’ve lost sight of something that pokemon has been able to bring back to me, my inner child. From the ages of 7-9, loading up Emerald on my gameboy advance SP, trading/battling pokemon with friends, and camping out in a local mall for a special Celebi DLC were some of my fondest memories I carry with me in my childhood. There aren’t words to describe the feeling my 9 year old self felt when I finally got my first level 100 pokemon (Azumarill and Ray) - the countless hours grinding the Elite 4 and feeling of mastery can’t be replicated. Sitting in the crossroads between professional pursuit and nostalgia is THIS very card for me. The gold star Rayquaza represents more than just a pokemon or even my love of the hobby/collectibles. To me, it’s the perfect all encompassing depiction of my journey of personal growth and rediscovery of my inner child; simultaneously climbing a new mountaintop in professional achievement to be financially able to splurge $340,000 on this card. Every time I look at this card, it triggers the same feeling as inserting that light green Emerald insert booting up my Game Boy. There are only 47 of these cards in the world and the demand seems higher than ever for high end collectibles. Sadly this one is now off the market, whether price goes up or down doesn’t matter to me. This one will be safe in my PC :) PS. May we all discover our inner child, pursue it endlessly, and express ourselves freely. I believe our inner child is our path to happiness - I lost sight of mine for a long while and couldn’t be happier to have a relationship with him again

@padspoker This hand is objectively way more suspicious than the Robbi hand.

Going to write this in BBs call 1bb, call (QJo), call, call 63o raise 40bb K7s call QJo all in 300bbs, AA call 300bbs (lol) 63o calls 260bbs 8d5h4s AA bets 165bbs, 63o calls. 2c AA bets 300bbsish, 63o jams 600bbs @

@tombos21 Gambler 2 by busting quickly, reduces their average total wagered, so they don't pay as much -$ev to the wagering requirement. By linearity they therefore keep more of the bonus, ie. EV = bonus - (avg total wagered) x (house edge)

Gambling puzzle: A casino matches your deposit as a bonus. They require you to wager 30x your deposit before you can withdraw the bonus. Gambler 1 wants to minimize their bust rate. So they play a low-variance game with 97% return to player (RTP). Gambler 2 wants to maximize their variance. So they play an extremely high-variance game with 97% RTP. Curiously, Gambler #2 has a MUCH higher expected value than #1, despite having the same RTP and a higher chance of busting. In fact, if the variance is high enough, gambler #2 can theoretically have a positive expected value, despite playing a losing game! How is this possible?

@RaoulGMI AI induced psychosis.

This might be the most uncomfortable article I'ever ever published. It is easily the most ambitious. The Universal Code is the culmination of 30 years of macro thinking... but its a LOT more than just macro. x.com/RaoulGMI/statu…

Look, if your agent is rocking a PFP under $100k plz don't @ me or share its opinion on my wall. Reality is it needs to work harder, move out of your mac mini, buy a few real PFP then share its opinion.

I agree that the biggest obstacle to sbf getting a pardon is simply public opinion. Pardons from the T administration are clearly on offer to actual bonafide criminals, for not even much money nowadays. The main impediment in sbf's case is just heat as it is a high profile case, and perhaps actually coughing up the cash as he's probably not doing to well anymore to say the least. Imo his motion is not even to get a new trial per se, which will probably fail on technicalities, but rather to present his case to the public. In giving his arguments, I think it is convincing, maybe not legally but from a holistical view. Encourage anyone to read the actual pdfs. If sbf gets a pardon, I think it will be on Trump's final days - not by summer - but I still think this is a low probability. I think that the lowest level accounts could be paid pr, as it is the internet, but in terms of high level accounts, only a couple of accounts are even in his favor, including me, and they have always held this position since Nov 2022, and I'm a real person, I'm not paid directly or indirectly by sbf's pardon campaign either, so I know they don't have the cheese. Also it's kind of bullshit to say this is all paid slop when the comment section is 100-1 against sbf. The argument that all the money was gone and he stole it all enriching himself, is a complete fiction repeated ad nauseum on Twitter, and only after the verdict rendered was it admitted to be a lie. This lie was held up by s&c trying to minimize recovery so as to avoid contradictions. It also helped to cover s&c's justification for the bankruptcy being in US (for which ftxus was clearly fully solvent and liquid). And securing the conviction provided cover to then completely loot the company while disposing of criminal liability (code audit, ledgerx). 3 witnesses who wanted to testify for Sam clearly got intimidated. They directly contradict the prosecutions story. With everyone threatened with life in prison, it is amazing that you had guys like Ryan and Nishad still defending Sam. What benefit do they have defending a crook? These guys stood on principles, but ultimately cracked under unrelenting pressure.

if you watch what’s happening, someone is currently working overtime to manufacture consent around an SBF pardon narrative rewrite being promoted with smaller accounts and propagated and spread by larger accounts pardon by summer, mark my words

the narrative on ross is that he is a murderer that deserves 50 years. or do you not believe this narrative, and if so why not? i think you even admit that the sbf trial was swiss cheese (correct me if wrong), but now have moved to "what does it matter that it was a phony trial, if he is a criminal". the issue is by not getting a fair trial he has not been able to show any evidence that might exonerate him. in fact, almost every point that the general public believes about this case is incorrect, and can be proven in court. sbf's wrong portrayal was done on purpose to make sure the bk was handled in the usa and provide cover for s&c looting. once the verdict was rendered, everyone immediately stopped pretending.

@AWice @MrPurple_DJ @un4w4r3 Its quite a stretch comparing Ross to SBF lol

@EvgenyGaevoy, @AWice is probably not doing all the evidence justice in a "wall of text "(I’ll address that below), but first: to your “simple smell test.” If SBF sought liquidity (from CZ and Justin Sun, both proven by evidence) that doesn’t equate bankruptcy. Illiquidity =/= bankruptcy whereas bankruptcy does = insolvency. Those are different. Sometimes illiquidity can require a bankruptcy but not always. So, your straw man argument rests on a completely incorrect assumption (that illiquidity = bankruptcy = insolvency). If you want to argue they were too illiquid and it required a bankruptcy then do so, but again your “smell test” is not that at all. You should probably already understand that nuance considering Wintermute was on the UCC in the bankruptcy. You also indicate he stole money “for lavish expenses like real estate.” For that “fact” as you allege, not only was that not part of evidence linking real estate purchases to customer funds in the criminal case, but it also was not brought as evidence in the bankruptcy. On top of that, while it is alleged that buying out Binance for $1.76B in July 2021 used $1.2B of customer funds, there is one pretty significant problem with the facts thereafter. Real estate was bought in fall 2021 for $250mm, LedgerX was bought in October 2021 for $300mm (with an additional $250mm put up for the CFTC), FTX EU was bought in the same month for $280mm+, and then in November nearly $200mm was committed to buy FTX Japan. All of that $1.2B+ was not only not alleged to be customer funds, but the Independent Examiner also proved that FTX Europe and LedgerX were not paid for with customer funds (so, $0.8B+). So, how can FTX use $1.2B of customer funds in July and not use at least $0.8B of $1.2B+ in customer funds in October? One of those has to be wrong, that’s how I would define a “smell test.” As to illiquidity, liquidity, insolvency, and the entire bankruptcy narrative that you have incorrect (despite being privy to information the public doesn’t have by being on the UCC), here is a more coherent layout of the “facts” that we keep "discussing every few months." x.com/MrPurple_DJ/st… What’s your response to that?

@EvgenyGaevoy @MrPurple_DJ @un4w4r3 Same reason I care about free ross, think certain things deserve to be said or exposed

@AWice @MrPurple_DJ @un4w4r3 Why do you care?

@EvgenyGaevoy @MrPurple_DJ @un4w4r3 all the witnesses for the defense were clearly intimidated into not testifying and admit this openly. for nishad specifically, he even 180 flipped his testimony under pressure. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…

@MrPurple_DJ @un4w4r3 @AWice Well I genuinely don’t care about SBF getting a fairer deal because my current assessment is he is a psychopath that can’t be trusted. I’ve seen zero remorse from him about what he did, and I’d rather care about people who actually deserve to be re-tried like privacy devs

@MrPurple_DJ @EvgenyGaevoy

@EvgenyGaevoy @AWice False again Gaevoy, they were not a "simple cex with every asset backed 1:1." You and your GC are well aware of this fact so why to you say otherwise? The ToS does not indicate what you say it does. x.com/i/status/19881…

about the recent sbf pardonposting. think its clear ryan salame got raw dogged simply for refusing to testify against sam. imo thats a glimpse into that the us court system is more kangaroo than many want to admit. this is because they basically create the case that will lead to the result, then bully everyone into testimony. this is not justice, its a kangaroo court. i think people chunk the trial and then take sam's guilty verdict as proof that he stole the money, but his argument that he was not allowed to present evidence is also largely correct. actually, kaplan fucked him at every turn: didnt allow him to use "relied on lawyers" as a defense (negates intent), that customers will get paid back (negating harm), excluded solvency evidence, excluded discussion the 12th section of t&c that says if you agree to margin lend its risky and you may not get paid back, forced "dry run" of defense which is highly unusual to say the least, and many other things. imo kaplan is a highly suspicious judge. the trial narrative was largely a fiction constructed by prosecutors and s&c to stick all the blame on sbf. s&c is as smart as they are malicious and i wouldn't be surprised if they end up having contributed to this bad pr. imo it is not even controversial to say that what the jurors saw and heard is not anywhere an accurate portrayal of what happened. they think sbf stole all the money and disappeared. reality is a tiny fraction of the money was actually missing at the time (yes even valuing all sam coins at zero, valuing all claims as in kind, etc.), probably (my guess) from the alameda blowup within the margin lend system after the market giga puked. sbf was a sloppy ceo to the point that he was prob criminally negligent. but if he is a thief, where is the money? all these transfers are on chain, so there is always a paper trail. sbf at every turn tried to keep ftx afloat (pay customers), simply because it is in his own best interest to do so, so to me the motive component of fraud doesn't line up either. in fact if he didn't sign bankruptcy, i think ftx customers would of been paid faster and the whole shebang would still be running today (similar to bitfinex) as it was also a highly profitable business. at the end of the day how shady sbf lines up in the crypto hall of fame wouldn't even crack the top half. he was just a dude way in over his head that rose to his level of incompetence. but in this industry, might makes right, so the real mobsters get pardoned, guys like sbf get chewed up, and the system pats itself on the back. i don't have to agree with that system. i think ryan salame shouldn't be in jail for refusing to testify and for having no involvement with the customer loss of funds, getting ringed up on a chickenshit process crime and then the penalties tripled to make an example on their threatening him into submission. this to me is a completely uncontroversial opinion. similarly i don't think sbf's trial was remotely fair to him either. none of these views should be controversial but they apparently are, i think because people have bit so hard that this is the guy that stole the money. so its easy to say "fuck you, thief", it is easy to parrot the exact same slop opinion but i would invite anyone who disagrees, to ask ai about the trial and what happened, as all of the points i mention can be proven. i don't have any bone to pick either, i don't need to be proven right. i am simply reporting how i see it, and let that be that. free salame. free sbf.

Adam Cochran actually blew open the Epstein case quite a bit. He showed the US govt was covering it up (tape edit, barr suicide note). But there's another point I think many are missing. Remember that Dershowitz (Epstein's lawyer) told Acosta that Epstein belonged to "both U.S. and allied intelligence". Much focus has been put on the Israel side of that statement. But what is not well understood yet is the US side. The blackmail was not just for the benefit of Israel. It was for the benefit of the US deep state too, and why senior US officials went to great lengths to cover up. This I think will be shown in time.

@DoveyWan not the state of overall ai, the state of openai. they (openai) produced models that cost too much and are getting squeezed in every dimension.

Sam's mini essay makes me wonder the state of overall ai .. the confidence crack is there, straight out from his own tweet

Fuck.

@fede_intern When he said depressed, he's referring to his past, like shit he was dealing with years ago.

Bryan Johnson invests millions in extreme biological optimization while publicly promoting ketamine and mushrooms as evidence based solutions for depression and aging, often citing n=1 data and preliminary studies. This is not scientific, serious or useful. It can be actually very damaging for people that don't have experience in reading papers or scientific research. Yet he continues sharing raw accounts of being in "the depths of despair where nothing matters." Maybe the mushrooms and ketamine aren't the solution to the problems @bryan_johnson? This pattern of broadcasting both profound vulnerability and bold therapeutic endorsements without any real serious data suggests the primary objective is sustained public attention rather than scientific discourse. Genuine progress in mental health and longevity requires rigorous, replicated evidence. Performative self experimentation optimized for engagement produces neither. Taleb @nntaleb was again right.

@thekitze @levelsio What is this word salad He doesn't want to rt your product it's that simple. It's beggar energy. Ssris are now known to have no long term benefit (plos study). Pharma preyed on desperate people to prescribe a drug they can't quit and that doesn't help them.

i've supported and defended @levelsio publicly *countless* times when ppl blocked him, dunked on his takes, ego etc. after texting and interacting a bunch on twitter i invited him for coffee in 2017 when we both lived in nl and he replied "that would be a waste of time, it's low ROI" don't confuse this for a stan-type relationship, we actually interacted a lot before this, he even subscribed to me and texted "dude i'm your biggest fan" etc. which is confusing af to me i asked him to have a conversation on a podcast countless times over the years and he kept inventing different conditions a week ago he RT-ed some random dude and i dmd him to ask "man how come you supports anyone about anything but never gave one of my apps a chance" .. (by chance i meant to even try them, because i know how some of them can help him out to be more productive) he replied "brother this is begger energy", which kinda hurt. when ppl ask me for a RT boost even now (especially someone i interact with constantly) i try to at least be helpful and not insulting the guy's fame and x revenue hit him so hard in the head really forgot how to interact with human beings and forgot that some words actually hurt, especially coming from someone you've been looking up to someone and saw them as an inspiration for over 10 years i had a draft to invite him to tinkerers because everyone wants him there, but i knew what he's gonna reply with, and i'm glad i didn't send it the last straw for me is when literally everyone on the timeline has been congratulating @tinkererclub success publicly and privately. i mean literally all the big names. heck i even made amends with ppl i haven't interacted with in years, and i'm happy i did so. the supports mean A LOT especially cuz i'm navigating an uncharted territory of growth i haven't seen before. guess who i wanted to ask for advice? another unsent draft. the only thing pieter had to say was to dunk on me twice about my tweet about antidepressants (which was VERY hard to write and confess publicly) the person who was trying to sell an ai therapist to people is now making fun of mental health and depression imagine being this rich and famous but still to have this amount of bitterness and saltiness in you, it's actually sad tbh this is a skill issue because i continue to confuse acquaintances for friends. i don't have friends, and that's fine. if i ever lose my head to reach this level of being cruel to ppl i want you to call me out if anything this makes me wanna be more helpful and nicer to people i hate to admit it, but some of you mfs were right about him, i just couldn't see clearly. hardest block i've pressed in my life. but i've burned bridges and cut off *way* closer people this year over toxicity. i'm starting fresh. sayonara brother, i wish you all the best ✌️