Climb That Ladder

Please watch and share this video I made 15 years ago if you can. If you disagree, let’s talk about it. youtu.be/9hyz4Hnb64o?si…

Good call. I’ll likely have to close my STRC puts as those can interfere with long term capital gains treatement. I’ll use something more indirect.

@Heeler999 I’ll check it out thanks.

@ActuallyClimber Have you looked into how hedging with puts affects long term capital gains treatment in this case? Many times it can make distributions count as short term gains

Half of the $80-$90 strike June-September $STRC puts are owned by myself. That’s merely to (mostly) protect a $3.3 mil position.

@BTCDeepThoughts Exactly.

@ActuallyClimber If you ask what it takes to invalidate the power law, they don't have an answer. The price could drop to $5k tomorrow and they'd say, "It's fine."

Either 1. Saylor/MSTR hasn’t helped Bitcoin price much (hE bUyS OTC bRO, cAnT U rEaD?) OR 2. Bitcoin powerlaw would have failed already without him. (Powerlaw not only predicted his birth but also his singular obsession with Bitcoin) To me, either potential has issues.

@PankajGoel66 Ya definitely, and I considered that, but price is high unless you go really far out of the money. I’m wanting my hedge to only cost 1/3 of the dividends they’re paying me so figured a direct approach would be good. If you find something attractive, let me know.

@ActuallyClimber Is there a way to hedge via $IBIT or $MSTR as they are more liquid

@PankajGoel66 It’s difficult even to get the mid price as no one is trading these.

@ActuallyClimber 90/95 Spreads are $0.50 for Sept expirations.

@RyanShe74157201 @BurnA951 Ya, but other assets don’t claim to have a power law.

@ActuallyClimber @BurnA951 It is absolutely true that without the level of demand it’s had that the price would be lower. But then again, that can be said for all assets.

How much has Saylor buying ~750,000 Bitcoin helped the Bitcoin price? If you think it has, do you also believe Bitcoin therefore would be below the powerlaw support line if Saylor never existed?

@PankajGoel66 Cool

@ActuallyClimber I am on the other side of trade!

@HShearsay @mikealfred $1-$2 for 6 months of protection.

@ActuallyClimber @mikealfred How much are the puts costing you in percentage return? I trust that your position is still yielding well over 5 percent?

@Entouarnt4 @morpheus7447x At what price does it fail, for you? Or will the goalpost move?

Which part of the feedback loop has broken? There’s countless examples of power laws. Find me one example of one that “stopped working”, without hitting an upper limit (resource or other hard cap). That’s the point. They don’t have to last forever. But they last until something fundamental changes. I haven’t found a single example where something follows a power law over 7 magnitudes of scale and then just stops doing so. But we want to assume btc will do that, because vibes?

@celestal21 Ya Saylor is a single man, not millions of people on a city.

@ActuallyClimber I don't think this is a useful framework. City growth tends to follow power law. Did power law specifically predict a particular big factory employing lots of people? No. But somehow at scale these power laws appear even though there is no way to predict all the single events.

@suenther Of course they are. Either there’s some truth to one or the other. Or do you like balancing on fence tops?

@ActuallyClimber ‘Pick your poison’ is a false dilemma. Markets are multi-causal by nature

@klaus_koo @BurnA951 Despite True North and Saylor and Strategy World existing to increase bitcoin adoption, they’ve had no effect? Poor Saylor.

@ActuallyClimber @BurnA951 Bitcoin demand has gone to MSTR. Simple.

@suenther True North didn’t exist because of Bitcoin. It was born of MSTR. Strategy World etc exist to pull more people into Bitcoin or MSTR. Maybe they’ve succeeded, maybe not. Either way my 1 or 2 point stands. Pick your poison.

@ActuallyClimber Without MSTR, people would have simply bought spot, no mNAV premium eating into their allocation, just more BTC per dollar. The idea that the power law must have failed is simply wrong ex ante

@Entouarnt4 @morpheus7447x Sir, I’m not arguing that power laws exist. I’m arguing that bitcoin will keep following one because it has before.

That’s funny tho about looking to the stars. Orbits follow a power law. (Kepler figured this out. Keplers third law…). Fwiw, he was pretty much dismissed for it at the time. Credit came later when advancements in telescopes and measuring tools proved his predictive theory was totally accurate. And NASA later used the same formulas to calculate orbits and send rockets up to space and into orbit…. Bro, you talk a lot about power law stuff. Have you ever bothered to actually engage with the research and literature out of Santa Fe institute? Or is this all just vibes? (No offense. I’m genuinely curious.)

@thediscreteuser We can’t help attraction. We can look at the numbers, realize the error in our investing ways and call out BS where we see it. I’m glad I’m able to pivot and historically have done so at amazing times, though not every time.

@ActuallyClimber I have actually read a lot. It just surprises me how can a person who used to be so bullish, turn bearish suddenly. It’s like a man that really loves women, turning gay from one day to another.

@FiatisF00lsgold Ya I thought Metaplanet’s mNAV arb would work a bit longer. For your sake I hope it continues performing.

@ActuallyClimber It’s not infallible, just the best tool we have right now for thinking about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Like every model, it works until it doesn’t.

@thediscreteuser I’ve written a bunch about this since October if you want to read.

@ActuallyClimber Why did you turn bearish? Just wondering with all due respect. Cheers, Climb.

@TeddyBitcoins @BTCBreadMan @Sahra03352270 Ya every month below a 1 year hold increases the difference between selling now or waiting and decreases the time I need protection.

@ActuallyClimber @BTCBreadMan @Sahra03352270 Ahh cost basis dropping because of tax deferred dividends…right. Makes sense

@TeddyBitcoins @BTCBreadMan @Sahra03352270 My cost basis right now is $88 as it drops $1 every month. I bought around $92. Currently about $400k in short term gains.

@ActuallyClimber @BTCBreadMan @Sahra03352270 How big of a cap gain could there really be? Strc has a low of $90 right?

@mikealfred Whatcha going to shill next Mike? Good luck!

@ActuallyClimber Seems like you may be new to investing. Good luck!