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ActuallyFin
30.2K posts
ActuallyFin
@ActuallyFinance
Get-rich-slow scheme researcher. May like good tweets from bad accts. Expect sarcasm. Suggested 0.5% royalty for idea use pls.
Katılım Ocak 2018
1K Takip Edilen2.2K Takipçiler
ActuallyFin retweetledi
@waitbutwhy There is a nice convexity to choosing blue here. If you die, it is because there is less hope for the world. If you live, it is because there is more.
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Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@waitbutwhy 42%, even if they think the vast majority (say >80%) think like them, knowingly chose to let a billion people die.
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@choffstein Two scenarios:
Hit a red button: at least hundred of millions of people will die, more likely billions.
Hit a blue button: everyone will live, as long as at least half the world did not want to kill hundreds of millions or billions of people.
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@ActuallyFinance Let's reframe this.
x.com/choffstein/sta…
Corey Hoffstein 🏴☠️@choffstein
Bond Villain: "Press blue... or don't." Me: "What if I don't?" BV: "Nothing. You go home." Me: "And if I press it?" BV: "You die, along with everyone else who pressed blue, unless half of humanity also presses it." Me: "But I can just leave?" BV: "Correct."
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Red looks selfish until you realize: if everyone presses red, everyone lives.
The "cooperative" answer requires coordination and trust.
The "selfish" answer just requires everyone making the same selfish choice.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@choffstein I am imagine a world where the red people fund an aggressive worldwide advertising campaign, then maybe we could get it down to only a billion. A conservative guess. Certainly closer to correct than your zero.
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@ActuallyFinance You've chosen a random number to define how expensive it is. But, given the number you chose, blue was going to lose regardless, so... 🤷♂️
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A buddy who does HNW told me of a client of his—a doctor!—who sold right at the COVID bottom because "this is gonna get really bad" ... don't know if or when that client ever got back in... thoughts & prayers lol x.com/choffstein/sta…
Corey Hoffstein 🏴☠️@choffstein
last april, during the tariff tantrum, equity + trend fell -25% vs S&P 500's -16%. a client fully redeemed. to paraphrase, "I feel bad for you guys; you'll be out of business soon." since then, stocks + trend beat the S&P 500 by 24 percentage points and AUM is up ~62%. sometimes the realized path is just a way to let clients self select into the process. it's a good thing.
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Curious what happens if you add in financial outcomes to this (eg the people who press red also get $5 or $500).
I bet if you ran this poll more than a few times, eventually you’d get a sense of how much respondents value human life per capita.
vittorio@IterIntellectus
why would anyone even press blue?!?
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@RampCapitalLLC @IterIntellectus It is possible to be (1) smart and (2) not want to kill every nice or dumb person in the world.
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why would anyone even press blue?!?
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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"intel has now done something that it has not done in 26 years. it had the audacity to make an all time high."
intel made all-time highs in mar 2018, apr 2019, jan 2020, apr 2021...
Hugh Hendry Acid Capitalist TV@hendry_hugh
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@taobanker Claude is dumb as hell right now. Anything I ask, it just responds "You've hit your limit"
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People who use the word “stochastic” in places where “random” is totally sufficient <
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Claude is so fucking bad right now
Honestly I don't even look at the first response I just say "Hey man that fucking stunk can you try again but actually put some effort into it?"
And then it does the actual work
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Everyone bonkers over AI right now, but my recent experience is that it's been getting worse. ChatGPT and Claude. Frequent hallucinations. Maybe 25% of the time if I say, "That sounds wrong, double check it", I get a backtrack & a different answer. Is it just compute scarcity?
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@taobanker You know, you can live in the real world if you want
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