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Quick update on where things stand in 2026. Interesting times in our sports betting space, and a lot of opportunity to think creatively and profit!
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Adam's Analytics
44 posts
Adam's Analytics
@AdamsAnalytics1
Sports wagerer. Numerical storyteller. World traveler. NBA 22: +11.6u | NBA 23: +27.6u | MLB 23: -57.3u
Katılım Aralık 2025
14 Takip Edilen5 Takipçiler
@Babyquad @PlusEVAnalytics The utility of tripling your bankroll from $5k to $15k by hitting around a 50% play is greater than the utility of occasionally hitting it big but usually being stuck still at $5k, especially as you can only play once
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@PlusEVAnalytics You can’t go broke because it’s a bonus bet. So why does bankroll matter? Why not go for max ev?
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Assume normal bet size of $50 is 1% of bankroll, and assume all possible bets have 4.5% vig:
Let x be the decimal odds of the bonus bet.
Using the Kelly Criterion, select x that maximizes:
(.955/x) * log(5000+10000*(x-1)) + (1 - .955/x) * log(5000) for x>1.
Solution is x = 2.296 or +130 odds.
#calculus
JFar 🧞♂️@JFar2Nice
If your usual bet size was like $50, and you got a $10,000 bonus bet (not splittable) What would bet with it? What type of odds?
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@tristantac61198 @mansourtarek_ Not just should drive Uber, but would be better off driving Uber for just ONE WEEK and quitting than trying to succeed on Kalshi
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@AdamsAnalytics1 @mansourtarek_ “98% should just drive uber” like yeah bro let me min-max my life into hourly wages 😭
markets aren’t supposed to be easy lil bro
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Kalshi is the only financial market where Main St. has an edge over Wall St.
Gigi, Nicholas, Brandon, Joel, Heather, Paul, and Stephanie have all found their edge and mastered their own niche on Kalshi.
Prediction markets are the people’s markets.
Kalshi@Kalshi
There’s markets on Kalshi for everyone
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@TheOddsGap Major respect for doing that hard work for the sake of accuracy, earned a follow!
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(2/7) Bug 1: I wasn't baking Kalshi's taker fee into the price comparison.
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × P × (1−P). On a 50¢ contract, that's 1.75¢. A 53¢ 'yes' costs ~54.75¢.
Raw Kalshi vs cooked sportsbook prices made Kalshi look better. Thanks to @AdamsAnalytics1 for flagging this!
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(1/7) I owe everyone a correction on my Kalshi thread from earlier this week.
Two bugs in how I compared Kalshi prices to sportsbooks. The 56/51.8/52.4% numbers were overstated. Methodology is fixed, site is accurate going forward.
Thread on what was wrong 👇
The Odds Gap@TheOddsGap
One book has the best price on: - Moneylines: 56.0% of the time - Spreads: 51.8% - Totals: 52.4% The same book sweeps every major market. It isn't a sportsbook. It's an exchange. It's @KalshiSports. The structural difference is doing all the work. Thread:
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@DK__DFS Whats the unit split with props only excluding DFS, and what % are widely available (not off market 365/MGM)?
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@DNVR_Nuggets All these angry comments havent spent much time on trade machine. CB untradeable, bench guys FAs or suck, AG health scares teams. If there's no good offer for Jamal or Cam there's no point in getting worse just to 'shuffle the deck'. Should've fired coach and trainers though
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Josh Kroenke says everything is on the table for the Nuggets this offseason, except trading Nikola Jokic 🗣️
"Everything's on the table right now, outside of trading Nikola."
"I think we need to have running it back as a possibility."
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@TheOddsGap @DeItaone I assume this is just a shill account for Kalshi, but why not include Novig and PX? If youre including taker fees in the price you'll see that Kalshi number plummet dramatically
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@DeItaone We track data across sportsbooks and Kalshi. 30-day scan across 17 books has Kalshi best-priced 56.0% on ML, 51.8% on spreads, 52.4% on totals. Structural, not sharper traders. Wrote up the full breakdown earlier today if you want the math.
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KALSHI RAISES $1B AT $22B VALUATION AS PREDICTION MARKETS SCALE
Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, led by Coatue with participation from major investors including Morgan Stanley, Sequoia Capital, and Andreessen Horowitz.
Founded to turn real-world questions into tradable markets, Kalshi says it is building a new financial system where probabilities are priced transparently, not through fragmented or opaque channels.
The company now claims over 90% of U.S. prediction market volume and says annualized trading has reached $178 billion in the past six months, with growing institutional adoption from hedge funds and asset managers.
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@Soarin22 Sure but point being that this does not hurt FanDuel as they have a hard time limiting this player anyway especially if they have account resources, so its not much of a 'different beast' from their end
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@AdamsAnalytics1 but if you can beat SGPs, then why wouldn't you play them via RFQ as well to get better odds and higher limits?
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Would be very curious to know how their MMing is going. I don’t do RFQs, but I’d imagine it’s quite a different beast than their trading on FD, when on PMs you are facing automated traders that you can’t profile, can’t limit, and actually have to compete with others on hold %
Nick Devor@nickdevor_
NEW: When you make a parlay bet on a prediction market, FanDuel might be your counterparty. Flutter, the parent-company of FanDuel, announced in its Q1 earnings report today that "in April, we began trialing market-making services on a major, third-party prediction market platform.” FanDuel has its own prediction market platform, FanDuel Predicts, which $FLUT CEO Peter Jackson tells me is mainly for onboarding new bettors in states yet to legalize traditional sports betting. “I want to do both,” Jackson says. “I want to make money through market-making and I want to acquire customers.” The prediction market market-making Flutter is doing is mainly in prediction market parlay or "combo" bets, Jackson says. Prediction markets say they differ from sports betting operators because they aren't the house. But now they may be pitting you against the house of Flutter.
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Just as the last decade created Uber drivers, Airbnb hosts, and Tiktok influencers, this decade is creating something new: the superforecaster.
This new class of professionals emerging online make a living predicting the future. They trade everything from elections, weather, inflation, to pop culture, economic and onchain data.
Prediction markets are the first open marketplace for competitive intelligence, rewarding whoever understands the world more clearly than anyone else.
The new Wall Street is here to stay.
Kalshi@Kalshi
There’s markets on Kalshi for everyone
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@luanalopeslara Only ~2% of users have over $1k profit. This means NINETY EIGHT PERCENT of Kalshi users would be better off financially by driving Uber for a week and never having even HEARD of Kalshi
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Here I rewrote the headline to match the article data: “people win more on prediction markets than sportsbooks and equities” 👍
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
A WSJ analysis found 67% of Polymarket profits goes to just 0.1% of accounts, while most traders are in the red. Most Kalshi users also lose money. on.wsj.com/4td9UPy
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@Domahhhh None of this addresses his main point- Kalshi needs squares to bleed money to attract market makers, as without MMs the company cannot operate at scale. The entire business is built on the premise that squares will bleed money
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I've noticed sports bettors are a bit obsessed with classifying PMs as gambling, or at least in the same breath as casinos. It's stupid.
A tweet yday on Kalshi (but applies to Poly, BF, etc.) made this point & it drove me nuts. Responding in 2nd tweet.
howgamblingworks.substack.com/p/kalshis-favo…
Isaac@roundrobin42
Wrote about how prediction markets depend on user losses, and why Kalshi’s claim that their incentives are fundamentally different from casinos is a lie
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@BsblBets How do you add units if no book still has the line?
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Adding .5u to Tulane/USM over at 10.5 -115
Baseball Betting Picks@BsblBets
1 unit: Rutgers/Uconn under 13 -123
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@JohnsonPlays51 Honestly stunning that you lasted long enough to place 600 college baseball bets
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Awful news to share: I have officially been limited to basically nothing on Bet365. We knew this day would come eventually. A very sad day in the Big Unit household.
I'm literally Mr. Bet365. Mr. Tuesday Night. How can they do this to me??
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@BsblBets @Deltad1mes Thanks, which books offer team totals?
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.5u:
Arkansas TT over 6.5 -118
Liberty ML +109 tailing @Deltad1mes
Baseball Betting Picks@BsblBets
.5u: GT/UNC under 13 -123
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@DoctorRazzWSOP @Flupnolide Does this same principle apply to an individual betting with several different methods to generate high volume? Or is the math specific to splitting up the risk among different people's bankrolls?
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@Flupnolide Cool story. Love the LLC graph! Reminds me of my article here: pinnacle.com/betting-resour…
Tl;dr version: if you don’t take 50% downswings once in a while, you’re doing it wrong
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Decided to make a substack to get some random thoughts out. Probably my only post:
flupnolide.substack.com/p/scaling-a-be…
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Nuggets line already at -12 and even -12.5 in places....
Adam's Analytics@AdamsAnalytics1
I must be crazy to think books are pricing in the Nuggets sitting starters tomorrow. They don't want to be the 5 seed opening at Houston. Give me the -10.5 and let's see where it closes...
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@den_shorts Absolutely because:
1. Don't want to lose HCA by dropping to 5
2. Need PWat to beat OKC which changes the preferred order of series
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So Houston wins. Lakers win.
Denver wins out and it doesn’t matter. But will they go for it?!
SportShorts@den_shorts
The lakers are gonna win aren’t they…
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I must be crazy to think books are pricing in the Nuggets sitting starters tomorrow. They don't want to be the 5 seed opening at Houston. Give me the -10.5 and let's see where it closes...
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