@WeTheBrandon Brandon...you are my favourite analyst, especially when you are hosted by Mario and you contradict him on almost 80% of his crooked analysis
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Rania Akhras
390 posts
@MarioNawfal Control is another story! Laughable...the US has been controlling the globe and states that it does not even share a border with them!
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🇮🇷🇴🇲 Who actually owns the Strait of Hormuz?
Legally, nobody. It's an international waterway under maritime law, open to all.
But control is a different story, and Iran has spent this war proving the gap between the two.
Tehran sits on one side of the strait, Oman on the other.
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil moved through daily before the fighting, about a fifth of the world's supply.
Since closing the strait back on March 2, Iran has made clear the old rules are over.
The waterway can be shut, and Tehran now knows exactly how easy it is to do it with cheap drones aimed at largely defenseless cargo ships.
That leverage is the whole game.
Iran has been advertising "service fees" to let ships pass, which is a toll by another name, with the service being a promise not to fire on you.
The alternatives don't add up.
Saudi Arabia's pipeline to the Red Sea maxes out around 7 million barrels a day.
The UAE's line to the Gulf of Oman moves under 2 million, with an expansion not due until 2027.
Both run across open ground that's an easy drone target.
Even the escape routes have catches.
Go south past Yemen and you hit the Bab el-Mandeb, where the Houthis, an Iranian ally, have shut down shipping before.
So ownership on paper means little.
Iran holds the coastline, the drones, and the willingness to use both, and that's left the whole region asking the same question: is there any way around this thing?
Writer: Julie
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@AJEnglish The improvement is in enhancing Iran's regional role and more rapidly eliminating the evil influence of US imperialism from the entire West Asian region.
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Netanyahu declaró ahora que no va a aceptar la cláusula que los obliga a retirarse del Líbano y ya le dijo a Donald Trump que las FDI no se van a ir. El terrorista israelí no está dispuesto a relegar su proyecto supremacista-expansionista y vuelve a poner en riesgo a toda la región. Su objetivo es la guerra y la destrucción de Medio Oriente. Estados Unidos si realmente quiere la paz tiene que liberarse de este criminal de una vez por todas y llevarlo a los Tribunales Internacionales para ser juzgado, no puede seguir financiándolo mas. No va a prosperar ningún acuerdo pacífico que incluya a un genocida de este calibre. Netanyahu es el mayor enemigo de la humanidad.
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@DropSiteNews What about Trump braging " I hereby authorise the toll free opening of the strait of Hormouz?!" He might have confounded the strait of Panama with the strait of Hormuz🤔
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🚨 Trump said Sunday the Strait of Hormuz would open “upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal,” declaring that oil will then flow on both ends.
🔸Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, part of Tehran’s negotiating team, confirmed the Friday signing and laid out a conditional sequence:
🔸He said the formal ceremony on Friday would be followed by talks between the two delegations to set the framework for the next phase, and that 60 days of negotiations would only begin “after it has been verified that the United States has fulfilled its commitments.”
🔸By that time, he said, Washington’s pledges on ending the war in the region, lifting the blockade on Iran, and releasing Iran’s frozen assets “will be verified.”
Drop Site@DropSiteNews
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi: 🔹 “The 60-day negotiations will begin only after it has been verified that the United States has fulfilled its commitments. 🔹 On Friday, there will be a formal signing ceremony, after which the heads of the two delegations will hold talks to determine the framework for the next phase of negotiations. 🔹 By that time, the U.S. commitments regarding ending the war, lifting the blockade, and releasing frozen Iranian assets will be assessed and verified. 🔹 The launch of the 60-day negotiations is contingent on the implementation of those U.S. commitments.”
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@Cosmos_politic وانا اتفق معك... حتى التظاهرات المعارضة في ايران اليوم لم اجدها بريئة
العربية
سأقول شيئًا يدور في ذهني.
ماذا لو كنا ننظر إلى المشهد بالمقلوب؟ ماذا لو أن إسرائيل هي التي تحاول فرض خطوطها الحمراء هذه المرة، وليس إيران؟
ماذا لو أن ما يحدث ليس إلا فخًا نصبه الإيرانيون لإسرائيل؟
فكروا قليلاً. إسرائيل كررت عشرات المرات أن أي قصف للمستوطنات الشمالية سيقابله قصف للضاحية الجنوبية.
حزب الله لم يقصف المستوطنات منذ فترة، ثم فجأة وقع القصف بالأمس، لتأتي بعدها الضربة الإسرائيلية على الضاحية قبل ساعات من توقيع الاتفاق المرتقب بين امريكا وايران.
لا أقول إنه ليس من حق الحزب الرد متى شاء وكيفما أراد على إسرائيل، ولكن توقيت الضربة بالفعل يبعث على التساؤل.
في إيران الآن نقاش داخلي كبير بشأن عقد اتفاق مع الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، والصقور الذين يتمركزون في الحرس الثوري يعارضون الاتفاق.
ماذا لو أنهم نسقوا مع الحزب قصف المستوطنات الشمالية لعلمهم أن إسرائيل ستقصف الضاحية، وأن ذلك سيلزم جميع الأطراف في إيران بالرد على إسرائيل، وبذلك يتم إعاقة توقيع الاتفاق؟
عندها لا تكون إسرائيل قد ضربت الضاحية لأنها فرضت معادلتها، بل لأنها سارت إلى الفخ بنفسها. وعندها يصبح الرد الإسرائيلي نفسه أداة استخدمت لتعطيل الاتفاق الذي تسعى إليه واشنطن وبعض الأطراف داخل إيران.
بصراحة، لو كان هذا ما حدث فعلاً، فهذه ليست مجرد مناورة سياسية. هذه ضربة معلم بكل معنى الكلمة. استخدام اندفاع الخصم ضده، وتحويل خطه الأحمر إلى عبء عليه، وإفشال مسار كامل من دون إطلاق رصاصة إضافية.
إن صح هذا السيناريو، فإسرائيل لم تكن اللاعب الذي فرض المعادلة، بل كانت القطعة التي تم تحريكها داخلها.
مرة اخرى، لا اقول ان هذا حدث… ولكنه احتمال مثير للاهتمام والتفكير.
العربية
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BREAKING: Iran rejects Trump's new claim to Axios that a deal will be signed "within the next few hours," calling it "out of touch with reality" given that nothing has been finalized and no agreement exists, especially after today's Israeli strike on Beirut, per Tasnim.
Iran's senior negotiating team member Marandi separately says "there will be no more negotiations for now."
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Rania Akhras retweetledi
WOW
A website is DOCUMENTING Israel’s crimes with GEOLOCATION, dates, categories of crimes, and footage of the incidents themselves.
One click and you can see EXACTLY what Israel did.
An enormous digital archive built for ACCOUNTABILITY.
Link: genocide.live
Direct Link: #zoom_to_selection=true" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">experience.arcgis.com/experience/3fb…
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🇮🇷🇨🇳 Iran’s ambassador to China just told the world exactly what China means to Iran: their shield and not just a customer.
The statement dropped hours before Trump boarded a plane to Beijing, where he plans to ask Xi to pressure Iran into a deal.
The same day, the U.S. Treasury blacklisted 12 people and entities for helping Iran sell oil to China.
Trump is flying to Beijing to ask China to squeeze Iran.
Iran just called China its strategic shield. Xi is in an extraordinarily difficult spot.
Source: CNN
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump lands in Beijing this week, alongside 17 of America's most powerful CEOs. It’s the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. On the guest list: Elon, Tim Cook, Larry Fink of BlackRock, plus executives from Meta, JP Morgan, Boeing, Visa and more. The agenda: trade, technology, semiconductors, and persuading Xi to pressure Iran into a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Notably absent: Nvidia's Jensen Huang. The man at the center of the U.S.-China chip war wasn't invited. Source: BBC
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@MarioNawfal Mario, you should have listened to the people who you kept saying they are smarter than you! The issue long ago stopped being linked to "Dust" and enrichment, it has become the "New Architectural Structure" of the gulf region!
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UPDATE: I NO LONGER STAND WITH THIS STATEMENT
I know I've been saying the war is over since Trump made the threats to 'wipe out Iran's civilization', and doubled down since as it became obvious Trump wanted to walk away
But things have changed.
The Iranian demands have gone from reasonable, to almost impossible for Trump to accept
If the latest reports from Iran are true, Iran wants to:
- Not concede on their ballistic missile program and proxy network (fair, expected)
- Control the Strait of Hormuz and charge a fee, as well as ban some countries (maximalist, but workable)
- According to Bloomberg: Reparations (This is impossible for Trump to accept)
- Unfreezing of assets and lifting of sanctions BEFORE any negotiations on nuclear program (That's according to Iran's Fars. If true, that would be a deal breaker, as logically the lifting of sanctions was always a concession linked to the nuclear program, similar to the JCPOA)
If the above reports are true, then the likelihood of war is even higher than 50%. However it's impossible to know what Iran's actual stance is, and which "conditions" are throw away terms.
Either way, things are not looking good at all.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
UPDATE: I STILL BELIEVE THE WAR IS OVER With the news today, most people believe the opposite
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ترامب ينتظر صفقة تلبي احتياجاته، لكن يبقى السؤال: هل سينجح في انتزاعها.؟
Department of State@StateDept
PRESIDENT TRUMP: Iran isn’t coming through with the kind of deal that we need to have. We’re going to get this thing done properly. We’re not going to leave early and then have the problem arise in 3 years.
العربية
THE BIGGEST LOSER FROM THE IRAN WAR WILL BE LEBANON
again 💔
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump just decided how this war ends, and it's not how anyone expected...
Trump has reportedly told his aides to prepare for an extended U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The president apparently sees both available off-ramps, pulling out of the conflict entirely or resuming combat operations, as carrying significantly more risk than maintaining the current naval blockade indefinitely.
This follows separate reporting that the intelligence community was directed to assess the risks of declaring unilateral victory and pulling back from the conflict.
Both data points point in the same direction.
Trump is choosing to settle into the standoff rather than force a resolution either way.
The logic is brutal but coherent.
Resuming bombing burns through more JASSM-ER missiles the Pentagon can't replace for years, risks more American casualties, drives oil even higher heading into midterms, and almost certainly fails to extract the nuclear concession Iran refuses to make.
Walking away with no deal hands Iran a clean political victory and tells every adversary that American military pressure can be outwaited.
Maintaining the blockade keeps the pressure on Tehran, slowly degrades the Iranian economy, and preserves Trump's leverage for whenever a real diplomatic opening emerges.
But there's a real cost to "indefinite blockade" as a strategy.
American gas prices already at $4.18 don't ease while the Strait stays effectively closed.
Fertilizer prices stay 90% above pre-war levels.
Global supply chains stay fractured.
The Iran war might be morphing into a permanent low-intensity confrontation, with the U.S. Navy enforcing a blockade in perpetuity while Iran keeps boarding ships, deploying cyber attacks, and waiting for the political pressure on Trump to crack first.
Source: WSJ
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇸🇴 UK Maritime Trade Operations just issued a warning after a tanker was approached by a Potential Attack Group (PAG) 500 nautical miles east of Mogadishu, Somalia. -A large wooden mothership crossed in front of the tanker at 1 nautical mile -Two additional small craft approached from the starboard side and closed to within 400 meters -Armed sentries on the tanker spotted the threat, and all three vessels turned away -UKMTO warning of "increased threat of possible PAG activity" in the region -All vessels in the area advised to transit with caution and report suspicious activity Source: UKMTO
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@alrougui صياغتك هي تماما تجسيد لما يسمى بالتضليل الاعلامي! هنا نواجه حالتين: اما انك لا تفهم العربية! او انك تفهم على "مراءك"
العربية
عاجل :
إيران تعرض على واشنطن فتح مضيق هرمز مقابل عدم الاتفاق بشأن النووي واليورانيوم.
العربية
@alrougui وبالنهاية . . لا اتفاق سيخضعون ويتنازلوا عن "النووي واليورانيوم" وهم صاغرون
العربية
@MarioNawfal Oh yes...Syria is back to an empty room...Mario, I enjoy your interviews about Iran, find them well structured... Get inside info about Syria before you dive in.
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🇬🇧🇸🇾 The last time a Syrian president met a British Prime Minister in London was December 2002.
That was Bashar al-Assad. Today it's Ahmed al-Sharaa meeting Keir Starmer.
Two decades of war, sanctions, and isolation, and Syria is back in the room.
Western governments are betting on the new leadership delivering stability, minority protections, and probably a break from Iranian and Russian influence.
Source: @clashreport
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇸🇾🇮🇷 Syria’s president pitching himself as Europe’s new energy lifeline Ahmad al-Sharaa told Europe that if Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea, Syria’s strategic spot can keep Gulf oil flowing safely.
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@MarioNawfal I was in Daraa in 2011. Children were detained. But the fingernail removal story is bogus. I saw no evidence of it. International media ran with a lie
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🇸🇾 Atef Najib, Assad's cousin and former head of Political Security in Daraa, is on trial in Damascus today.
In 2011, he ordered the arrest and torture of 15 schoolboys, some as young as 10, for writing graffiti. They were beaten, burned, and had their fingernails pulled out.
When parents begged for their children, he told them to go make more.
15 years later, he is the one in the dock.
Source: @ivarmm
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇬🇧🇸🇾 The last time a Syrian president met a British Prime Minister in London was December 2002. That was Bashar al-Assad. Today it's Ahmed al-Sharaa meeting Keir Starmer. Two decades of war, sanctions, and isolation, and Syria is back in the room. Western governments are betting on the new leadership delivering stability, minority protections, and probably a break from Iranian and Russian influence. Source: @clashreport
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@ShivAroor @grok can you trace back this post when it appeared first?
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Trump posted and deleted this in approximately 2 minutes yesterday. Iran considers Armenia a friend, by the way. Trump may have just painted a big fat target on an already war-weary Armenia.
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@Cosmos_politic حزمة القروض للامارات ليس حبا بهم ولكن لكي لا يضطرون الى بيع فوضوي لسندات الخزينة الاميركية للحصول على الدولار.
العربية
كما قلت، والأيام ستبين صحة أقوالي:
الإمارات انتهت.
دول الخليج الصغيرة انتهت، وهناك احتمال عالٍ لانهيار تدريجي وسريع فيها.
إغلاق مضيق هرمز والحرب منعا عملياً أي تدفق مالي لهذه الدول، واستمرار الاضطراب سيؤدي إلى كوارث عليهم.
هذا ليس أول خبر يتحدث عن ضائقة الإمارات المالية، حتى الأمريكيون يفكرون الآن بتقديم حزمة مساعدات مالية للإمارات.
رؤى لدراسات الحرب@RoaaWarStudies
#دبي إغلاق 450 فندق في دبي بسبب جفاف السيولة وخروج المستثمرين, بعض هذه الفنادق حديث مثل فندق أنانتارا الفاخر في جزيرة النخلة تم إغلاقه نهائيًا .
العربية