SpruceHill Capital

Easily the most insane setup my tool has surfaced yet: Net Cash: 4x the Market Cap Valuation: 2.3x P/E Size: Nano-cap (<$1M MC) Great find @e_pap4

HUGE update for @QualScreener🚨 You can now screen for IRR and Potential Upside alongside our existing filters (Moats, Catalysts, Turnarounds etc.) The AI reads the write-up, and makes estimates for IRR and upside potential based on the author's analysis. You can also click any pitch card to expand it and see exactly how the valuation was derived and a more detailed analysis. Going forward I will post daily pitches that are added to the website on @QualScreener. Only a few per day, due to quality filters. No spam. Subscribe to Qualscreener Substack for a curated summary of the week's best finds: qualscreener.substack.com/subscribe Website can be found in the bio of @QualScreener Try it out for free! If you have any suggestions on what feature to implement next shoot me a DM. Thanks @NestBetter for the IRR suggestion!

I built a tool that became the best investment idea generator I’ve ever used. It honestly became too useful to keep private, so I opened it up to everyone. The problem I kept running into was that traditional screeners are backward-looking. I was missing great setups because they rely on historical data. That’s why I built QualScreener. It scans thousands of write-ups and uses AI to capture data that traditional screens do not include. It lets you screen for "Single Digit P/E" based on the thesis, not the historical data. You can filter for "Turnarounds," "Deep Value," and so much more that other screeners can't. But my vision is for this to be more than just a tool, it's a centralized platform for idea generation. Here is how this platform works: The Daily Feed: I post summaries of stocks added to the screener daily here on @QualScreener. Follow for a constant flow of high-quality ideas. The Weekly Digest: At the end of the week, I publish a curated summary of the best pitches on Substack. The Screener: You may use the database to actively filter for specific qualitative setups (like "Spinoffs" or "Hidden Assets"). You can find the link to the newsletter and try the tool for free. Link to the website in my bio

I built a tool to generate investment ideas that honestly became too useful to keep private, so I’m opening it up to everyone today free of charge. The problem I kept running into was that traditional screeners are backward-looking. I was missing great setups because they're using historical data. For example, take a company that looks unprofitable on paper. A standard screener sees negative earnings and filters it out. But an investors can figure out that they just divested a money-losing segment and are actually trading at single-digit forward earnings. That’s why I built QualScreener. It scans thousands of write-ups and uses AI to capture data that traditional screens do not include. It lets you screen for 'Single Digit P/E' based on the write-up, not the historical data. You can filter for 'Turnarounds', 'Deep Value' and so much more that other screeners can't. It was supposed to be a small side project, but it’s become the best idea generator I’ve ever used. Obviously, AI isn't perfect; you still need to read the linked write-up to do your own DD (and give the authors the credit they deserve). But it finds the opportunities that raw numbers miss. Give it a try and let me know what you think: QualScreener.com

@Lipton7676 Ok, thanks! Let’s hope I’m wrong

@Aksel465 The €71M figure was reported in spanish press on Jan 20. It was expanded to €111M on Jan 27. Also, think the budget must be set on Jan 1 so budget was probably approved prior to Supercom’s announcement. But you could be right, might be Buddi.

I’ve been digging into the rumor that SuperCom $SPCB won the massive Spanish national contract. After analyzing with Gemini, here is the conclusion: $SPCB announced a 'Western Europe' win on Jan 6, but Spain didn't authorize the project's budget until Jan 27. In EU procurement, contracts generally cannot be awarded before funding is officially approved—making the SuperCom theory highly improbable. In contrast, competitor Big Technologies (Buddi) announced a 'Southern Europe' win on Jan 27—the exact same day Spain signed off on the funds. This perfect alignment of date and geography strongly suggests Buddi is the true winner, not $SPCB. Here's the press release: newsfile.refinitiv.com/getnewsfile/v1… Any arguments on why this is wrong?

@TaylorStCap @walnutavevalue @j16425646 It was only a trading update. So if they knew the contract was going to be announced soon they could wait for that and then release it?

$TALK is a small, overlooked telecom services firm trading at sub 5x EBITDA run rate despite a cleaned-up BS, strong insider alignment, and multiple embedded options. BDO valued its German ops at ~2x current EV, effectively giving you the rest of the biz for free. Link in bio!

@CasinoCapital Yeah you’re right although I figured as the CEO/founder/chairman owned 40% of the company he wouldn’t rug pull himself.

@Aksel465 With Greek shipowners, it's pot-luck if they'll work for you or steal from you... x.com/CasinoCapital/…

Did I actually make a mistake or not? I’m trying to understand what lesson I should take from this. I sold my $TORO position a few months ago at around $3 per share. I made a small profit, but I had already sat through a drawdown of more than 50%, so at that point I was just relieved to get out without losing money. My original thesis was still technically intact with it trading well below cash. But the huge drop, combined with some things looking sketchy (the adjusted share count climbing fast with no clear explanation, odd bond structures, etc.), made me uncomfortable. So I sold. Now, looking back, maybe I was wrong. The thesis eventually played out, the stock has almost doubled since, and I would soon receive a 60% dividend. Any thoughts?

Well, I see your concern and that absolutely could be a problem. However, from what I understand Talkpool provides a really niche service that the bigger telecom companies don't really bother with. Plus, smaller local companies just can't match Talkpool's quality and pricing. Currently, they could actually grow faster. They've even mentioned having many opportunities in the US, but they only choose the best ones to maintain strong profitability. If you look at their different business segments, you can see the whole picture. Field Services are projected to grow at only 5%, which really drags down the overall company growth. Remote Services are projected to grow at 22.6%. Tech Services are where the major potential is; they are projected to grow over 100%. This segment is most aligned with the addressable market (AI and automation in network management), which itself is projected to grow by 42%. Of course, that 100% plus growth is because it's still a very small segment right now so it is quite hard to compare. I guess we only have to see how it goes. I would personally say that the Field and Remote services are safer bets that they should be able to grow reliably and shouldn't be outcompeted by large companies. The Tech service segment has a much higher execution risk, although Magnus seems quite certain some of their services will break though, but of course he is biased. But all in all the potential there is massive.

@Aksel465 Good read and explanation. It's a bit contradicting for Talkpool to say it "is strategically positioned to address these opportunities" i.e. TAM growth rates of 28%-42%, but sees itself growing less than the market at 17%. Are you not worried they are too small for big contracts?

My highest-conviction position is still Talkpool. It sits at around 35% of my portfolio. In short, you’ve got a telecom operator shifting into tech, guiding for 17% annual growth and margin expansion, yet the stock still trades at a single-digit P/E. One of its subsidiaries alone has been valued at €20.5 million, which is wild when the entire company’s market cap is about €7.7 million. And that’s far from the only valuable asset they own. I break down the whole story in more detail on my Substack! Link in bio

Talkpool’s absurdly undervalued growth story just became a lot clearer after their latest quarterly report and earnings call. I broke down everything in my new Substack post. Check it out!

I’ve found a company that could soon be trading at an FCF yield of over 100%! I’ll be publishing a full write-up on my Substack soon, so stay tuned. Here’s a quick preview: This company has paid dividends in the past, but management put them on hold due to a temporary spike in capex as they invest in a few major projects. Combined with macro uncertainty, that move has sent the stock down roughly 70% since 2022. The higher capex has naturally weighed on free cash flow (though it remains positive), but in about two years, once these projects are completed they’ll start generating additional cash while capex drops sharply. These two factors alone could push the FCF yield to around 100% by 2027. And to top it off, the company sits on a net cash position.

Yesterday, Met.Extra Group reported its 1H25 results: Revenue and net income both up 50% YoY! Not what I was expecting for a company trading at just 3x earnings. Even after a 50% share price rally, it still trades at only 4x the last six months’ earnings. Potentially 2x this year’s earnings if momentum holds. The Italian segment keeps shrinking, but the international business surged +140%, now accounting for 75% of total revenue. Cash flows show they’re investing heavily in this expansion, but with margins intact, it’s clear they’re not growing just for the sake of growth.

If you’re not managing millions, start covering A to Z in nano- and micro-cap stocks. The best opportunities are often where no one else is looking. The company I wrote up today is, in my view, a high-quality business trading at just 3x earnings. It has a market cap of €7.5 million, zero mentions on X since its turnaround, and with a float of only about €1 million, it’s virtually impossible for institutions to follow.

@shot_change Thanks for pointing that out. What has changed however is that they are now generating cash and no longer have a need to raise capital. I don’t think anyone would want to dilute shareholders significantly unless it’s truly necessary.

Just published my write-up on Met.Extra Group $MET.MI, an overlooked and extremely illiquid company trading at just 3x earnings. Market cap is only €7.5m, with a free float of around €1m. After a reverse merger in 2022, the business was completely reshaped and now focuses on processing and marketing ferrous and non-ferrous metals. It reports only in Italian and has a very short public history, but margins are stable and I believe the setup is highly compelling. You can find the full write-up through the link in my bio!

@Clearingfog_ Mostly because I changed my strategy to more overlooked turn around stocks and as the price increased I didn’t consider the upside to be as attractive as in some of my new holdings.

@Aksel465 Missed the update but why'd you sell Me Group?

Portfolio Update Talkpool AG – 40% $TALK.ST Undisclosed (write-up coming tomorrow) – 18.5% CTT – Correios de Portugal – 16% $CTT.LS Angler Gaming – 10% $ANGL.ST Raketech – 9% $RAKE.ST Shelly Group – 6.5% $SLYG.F Recent changes: I decided to sell out of Bodyflight. As I wrote in my earlier note, the case had some downside protection through its asset base in the event of bankruptcy. However, the uncertainty around when that would matter, and whether the main business would recover, made it feel more like a melting ice cube. The second sale was Toro Corp. In its most recent quarterly report, the diluted share count jumped about 4x, and this was done without any mention or explanation in the report itself. Given the company’s history and the reputation of its founder and CEO, this was a major red flag for me. I also exited PetroNor. I originally bought it thinking the DOJ dropping its case meant the corruption investigations were winding down and they didn't find anything. After digging deeper, I realized the case was actually dropped because of an executive order signed by Trump that stopped US doing investigations into companies outside the US. That changed the risk profile for me. Finally, my second-largest position at the moment is the one I teased earlier. The research took some time because I had to translate every report individually, but tomorrow I’ll publish the full write-up on Substack so stay tuned.