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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·1h

$SZG FY25: rev €9b (€10b), EBITDA €376m (€445m). Tough year but FY26 guidance reaffirmed, w/ €0.20 DPS. Energy well-hedged w/ €10-15m EBT hit if prices hold. Selloff seems recession/demand destruction related, but with negative stub and ~70% discount to SOTP, I remain long

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·6d

> 50% of the way to 1k on the Stack - thank you all🙏

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Jerome@RagweedCapital·17 Mar

$EVC Nicely done and well worth the read!

$EVC update: Covering customer concentration, Univision renewal risk and more. Still the best bet in the market imo w/ ATS at ~10x EBIT run rate > current EV, valuable spectrum licenses, insiders strongly aligned via PSUs, and Media primed for midterm cash print. Link in bio!

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·13 Mar

@Uzocapital Really? Where are you getting the 100m coverage figure from?

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Uzo@Uzocapital·13 Mar

@BuffDawgg nice write up. Re spectrum overlapping coverage understates the population size materially..ie population number is over 100m not 40m...might explain the valuation delta.

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·13 Mar

$EVC update: Covering customer concentration, Univision renewal risk and more. Still the best bet in the market imo w/ ATS at ~10x EBIT run rate > current EV, valuable spectrum licenses, insiders strongly aligned via PSUs, and Media primed for midterm cash print. Link in bio!

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·11 Mar

@RagweedCapital I have no idea tbh. Just know he bought a 10.7% stake in $STRZ a few days ago

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Jerome@RagweedCapital·11 Mar

@BuffDawgg Is Byron selling his broadcasting biz to move into the streaming biz?

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·11 Mar

$STRZ is introducing a poison pill only a few days after Byron Allen bought Mnuchin's stake in a block sale. Coincidence? I think not.

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·10 Mar

Here's my take on $EVC's China risk. Mgmt noted one customer = 9% of group revenue in 3Q25 and FY25. Excluding them entirely, ATS still grew 49% y/y. Meanwhile Liftoff is eyeing an IPO at 27x EBIT on 32% growth with $1.85B in NIBD. Selloff seems completely overblown imo.

Shocked $EVC isn't up more. ATS rev +123% y/y (+16% seq.), $12.3m EBIT (~14% margin) while investing heavily in AI & sales. ATS alone could be worth ~$740m at 15x EBIT run rate. Add midterm tailwinds, spectrum licenses worth ~$300m, if not more, and this is close to a 3x

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·6 Mar

Shocked $EVC isn't up more. ATS rev +123% y/y (+16% seq.), $12.3m EBIT (~14% margin) while investing heavily in AI & sales. ATS alone could be worth ~$740m at 15x EBIT run rate. Add midterm tailwinds, spectrum licenses worth ~$300m, if not more, and this is close to a 3x

$EVC up ~30% AH as ad-tech grew >100% y/y. Media disappointed but midterm elections next year could turn the ship around. Ad-tech's EBITDA run rate is now ~$40m. Using AdTheorent transaction as comp suggests it could cover >300% of the mkt cap ALONE. Should be up more imo...

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·5 Mar

@qcapital2020 He'll have to declare bankruptcy long before he's reimbursed everyone

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 Q-Cap @qcapital2020·5 Mar

Chamath is issuing refunds for everyone !

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·5 Mar

Liberty 77 Capital (Mnuchin and Co) has agreed to sell its ~11% stake in a block sale at ~$13.9/sh, and $STRZ is now up roughly 50% over the last five trading days

Surprised $STRZ isn't up more. OTT subs 12.66m (+3% seq.), operating loss -$4.7m, Q4 OIBDA $55.5m. Beat FY leverage & OIBDA guidance. FY26 FCFF $80-120m, expects continued OTT & OIBDA growth, YE leverage 2.7x. ~7x midpoint FCF and sub 2x FCFE assuming 70% CC and 2.5x leverage

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Yellowbrick Investing@joinyellowbrick·2 Mar

Added 63 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final): @RodAlzmann (tender offers) - $YEXT, $DCBO @Petty__Cash (earnings) - $CRON, $DRT.TO @UnlearningCFA - $FISV @BuffDawgg - $CEDER.ST @felix__archive - $PATH (overview) @bourseko - $AIR.PA (earnings) and more...

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·28 Şub

@TradeIdeasFlow Thanks for the kind words. One quick correction: I view SEK 45/sh, not SEK 90, as a hypothetical floor in the event of a ban with compensation payment

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Trade Ideas Flow@TradeIdeasFlow·27 Şub

OUR TOP PITCH FROM THE LAST 24H 💎🟢 CEDERGRENSKA ( $CEDER.ST) 🇸🇪 A Swedish serial acquirer buying schools at 5x earnings, compounding at 42% ROCE - and the market treats it like a distressed equity. THE SETUP 🏗️ - Sweden's independent school market is ~80% single-school operators. - CEDER rolls them up, cuts back-office fat, and doubles their profitability within 2-3 years. - They've acquired 30 schools since 2011. The playbook works. WHY IT'S CHEAP 📉 - Swedish politicians are talking about banning for-profit schools. - The market is pricing in the worst case. Current valuation: EV/EBITA: 5.0x P/E: 6.2x ROCE: 42% 5Y Revenue CAGR: 20% 5Y EBITA CAGR: 24% Insider ownership: 33% These are "going out of business" multiples for a business that just grew EBITA 57% YoY. THE CONTRARIAN ARGUMENT 🧠 The pitch methodically dismantles the "profit ban" fear: → Sweden's left had 8 years in power (2014-2022). Result? Zero bans. → EU property rights (Article 17) require fair compensation - a fiscal nightmare for any government. → 400K students attend independent schools. You can't just shut them down without a political catastrophe. → Stricter regulations actually help CEDER - scale becomes a moat as small operators can't absorb rising costs. THE MATH 📊 Even in a complete wind-down scenario, the author values shares at SEK 90/share - more than double today's ~SEK 39. Best case (targets met + rerate): SEK 152/share → ~290% upside. FOUNDERS WITH SKIN IN THE GAME 🎯 Co-founded by a stockbroker-turned-history-teacher and a career educator. Still actively involved. 33% insider ownership. CEO personally holds ~SEK 10M in stock. This is one of the more thorough political risk analyses we've seen applied to a small-cap.

$CEDER is a Swedish independent school roll-up trading at a double-digit earnings yield and ~5x EBITA run rate. Political headwinds have compressed the valuation to trough levels, but is the regulatory risk as existential as the market suggests? Link in bio!

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Jonas Fremming@JFremming·27 Şub

Veldig god gjennomgang. CEDER -16% YTD, Academedia +2% YTD. Etter CEDER kom med økt guidance for fullåret og svært gode tall. CEDER 5.4x LTM P/E, ACAD på 12.0x. Størrelse definitivt en av grunnene, men i lys av bedre vekstutsikter, bedre avkastning på kapitalen, bedre cash conversion og lavere finansiell giring gir det ikke mening for meg.

$CEDER is a Swedish independent school roll-up trading at a double-digit earnings yield and ~5x EBITA run rate. Political headwinds have compressed the valuation to trough levels, but is the regulatory risk as existential as the market suggests? Link in bio!

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·27 Şub

Surprised $STRZ isn't up more. OTT subs 12.66m (+3% seq.), operating loss -$4.7m, Q4 OIBDA $55.5m. Beat FY leverage & OIBDA guidance. FY26 FCFF $80-120m, expects continued OTT & OIBDA growth, YE leverage 2.7x. ~7x midpoint FCF and sub 2x FCFE assuming 70% CC and 2.5x leverage

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·26 Şub

And thanks to @JFremming for making me aware of the name and providing valuable input!

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·26 Şub

$CEDER is a Swedish independent school roll-up trading at a double-digit earnings yield and ~5x EBITA run rate. Political headwinds have compressed the valuation to trough levels, but is the regulatory risk as existential as the market suggests? Link in bio!

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·25 Şub

$NORTHM proposing its first dividend payment since 2024. While only DKK 1.25/sh (~46% PO) and DKK 22.5m in total, it's at least a sign that capital distributions are back on the table. Net profit positive ex. equity port is also nice to see. Updated SOTP attached

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·24 Şub

I'm no AI researcher but the Citrini post seems flawed. We have no 1-1 comps for new tech timelines, and their scenario implicitly assumes zero friction and immediate adoption, which ignores how slowly technology diffuses through an economy even when it's clearly superior

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TheOracleOfOslo@BuffDawgg·23 Şub

$NORTHM +7% with FY25 preliminary results and FY26 guidance release. Revenue, EBITDA, and EBIT all in line, and mgmt expects improved profitability in the coming year. SOTP discount remains substantial and is contingent on a change in capital allocation policy. I remain long

$NORTHM trades at < 2x low-end of FY25 EBITDA guidance (+ TBV discount), has an equity portfolio covering almost the entire mcap, owns valuable RE, w/ the founder owning > 60% of SO. Its SDR business is nearing profitability and you get the rest of the biz for free. Link in bio!

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