Alpha

Everyone’s chasing semiconductors, space, and AI right now, and honestly same, I’ve been deep in all of it. But there’s one company I keep coming back to quietly, one that’s building something in a completely different direction. That’s $DMRC Digimarc, and let me explain why it’s been on my radar. They do digital watermarking. Embedding invisible identification into content so you can prove what it is, where it came from, and whether it’s been tampered with. They’ve been doing this for nearly 30 years, and one of their longest running deployments is with a consortium of the world’s central banks to deter currency counterfeiting. Not a new idea for them at all. And honestly the reason this feels more urgent now is pretty obvious when you think about it. AI generated content is everywhere, deepfakes, synthetic images, AI written text, and the question of is this real is getting harder to answer every single day. Digital watermarking is one of the most viable solutions to that problem at scale, and $DMRC has been quietly building the infrastructure for exactly this for decades without much fanfare. The 2026 piece is worth paying attention to though. The EU AI Act comes into full force in May 2026, and it mandates watermarking and labeling of AI generated content across the board. Non compliance means fines up to 15 million EUR or 3% of global annual turnover, whichever is higher. This applies to any AI company operating in Europe, which is basically everyone. What kind of got me was this part. $DMRC developed the industry’s first digital watermarking solution compliant with C2PA 2.1, the standard the industry is converging around, and they co-chair the watermarking task force for that standard. So they’re not just selling into this space, they’re literally at the table where the rules are being written. That’s a different kind of positioning. The honest risk is the financials are still rough. Small cap, still burning cash, stock has been quiet for a while. The story is ahead of the numbers right now. But regulation moving in this direction with $DMRC sitting at the center of the standard, that’s not nothing. Staying on my watchlist for sure.

This looks small but I think it matters more than it seems for $RDW. The ~$12.8M is not the story. What stands out is this is both a first sale and a standard component selection. First sale means ELSA actually made it into a real program. For new space hardware that is usually the hardest step. But being baselined inside Moog’s METEOR platform is the bigger signal. It does not guarantee revenue, but it creates a path. Every time that platform is used ELSA now has a seat at the table. That is very different from a one off contract. Technically this lines up with where the market is going. Higher power density lower mass faster production. That is exactly what large satellite constellations and defense systems need. From an investment perspective this is not about a single contract. It is about positioning inside a platform, and that is where repeat revenue starts to show up. Feels like Redwire is starting to move from selling parts to getting embedded inside systems. Market might be missing that. $RDW

$ABCL dropped Phase 1 data and the stock sold off. I think that’s a mistake. ABCL635 hit every single checkpoint Phase 1 is supposed to hit. No liver toxicity at any dose. Zero serious adverse events. Testosterone suppression confirming strong NK3R target engagement. Half life of approximately 24 days, which is exactly what you need to support once monthly subcutaneous dosing. The pharmacokinetic profile came back clean. The tolerability profile came back clean. The company immediately advanced into Phase 2 on the strength of this data. The market sold it because Phase 1 doesn’t come with efficacy numbers. That’s a different thing from the data being bad. Phase 1 confirmation is what makes Phase 2 credible, and that’s exactly what this was. The piece that keeps coming back to me is the hepatotoxicity comparison. Veozah, the only approved oral NK3R drug, has a Black Box Warning for liver toxicity and still pulled $234M in 9 months. ABCL635 showed zero liver enzyme elevations across all doses tested from 30mg to 900mg in the Phase 1 data released last week. That’s the dosing headroom that Astellas never had. If higher doses are safe, you can push efficacy further than Veozah ever could. Goldman sitting on 4.3M shares. Baker Bros increased from 9.1% to 10.8% the day before the readout. These people saw the data before we did. They added going into the announcement. $655M in liquidity. EPS beat. Revenue beat. Phase 1 cleared. Phase 2 on track for Q3. The sell off gave us a better entry on a story that actually got cleaner this week, not worse. Treating this as an accumulation phase.

$INFQ has been running hard this week and the reason is pretty clear once you dig in. NVIDIA just launched Ising earlier this week. It is the world’s first open-source AI models built specifically for quantum computing. They’re designed for quantum processor calibration and error correction decoding, and they’re running 2.5x faster and 3x more accurate than traditional methods. Out of all the quantum companies NVIDIA highlighted, Infleqtion was the only one that showed up on both the calibration list and the decoding list. Citron Research jumped on it right away, calling it the most obvious mispricing in the entire quantum space right now. Their point was simple. Rigetti ($RGTI), which has roughly twice the market cap of $INFQ, didn’t make NVIDIA’s list at all. On top of that, Citi initiated coverage this week with a Buy rating and a $20 price target. The stock went from $9.81 at the end of March to an all time high of $21.28 on Friday. Basically an 80% run in under three weeks. Most pure play quantum companies are still betting entirely on a future that hasn’t arrived yet. $INFQ is structurally different, and I think most people still haven’t fully clocked it. More on that below 🧵👇

Every beam. Every day. Real progress. G2_Austin. America needs more energy infrastructure, and it’s being built right here.

Tomorrow, $ABCL has its first Phase 1 readout for ABCL635. Most of the upside is priced in IMO. However, tomorrow's data will show: (i) if the mAb engages the target and it is not excluded by the blood-brain barrier; and (ii) preliminary safety which is very important (see below). The next milestone will be efficacy. I am doing a long article about ABCL635 for after the ph1 readout, but I wanted to share something. ABCL635 engages NK3r, same target as Fezolinetant (Veozah) from Astellas. The oral pill Veozah has made ~$234M in sales in the 9 months since launch in 2025, in a $4B VMS non-hormonal treatment market. REMEMBER that this molecule has a BLACK BOX WARNING for Hepatotoxicity!!! AND $234M in 9 months! The table below shows the results from Fezolinetant in ph 2b and ph3s. In phase 2 they tested QD (one pill a day) vs BID (two pills a day) each at high and low doses (30 and 120 mg for QD and 15 and 90 for BID). The endpoint was the difference in VMS frequency from baseline at 12 weeks. This means the reduction of episodes that the woman had of hot flashes compared to baseline (w/o the treatment). Example: -3 is better than -1, since -3 means they experienced 3 episodes less than baseline, while -1 means they experienced only 1 less. The trend is clear for ph2 and ph3. The molecule clearly works and engages the target (p-value < 0.05 in most cases) and higher doses resulted in fewer VMS episodes. GOOD!! However, they chose 45 mg of Fezolinetant for the Veozah pill, even if ph2 showed more reduction of VMS episodes at higher doses, WHY?? Higher dosage = Hepatotoxicity. 🚨My point: THERE IS A LOT OF EFFICIACY LEFT ON THE TABLE for ABCL635!!! The hepatotoxicity is most probably due to the Fezolinetant compound, not the NK3r target engaged. IF this is true and ABCL635 doesn't have toxicity and is safe, AbCellera could trial a safer higher dosing resulting in HIGHER EFFICACY!! If ABCL635 is safer and has more efficacy than Fezolinetant they would only compete over how convenient it is to have one pill a day or one shot a month, that is not up to me to decide. But still, it will be a clear contender for the $6B non-hormonal treatment VMS market projected for 2030 and could maaaaaaaaaybe prey on the Hormone replacement therapy market of $26.5B by 2030. Big IF, I know, but there is a good chance.