Kyo181
183 posts
$ABCL dropped Phase 1 data and the stock sold off. I think that’s a mistake. ABCL635 hit every single checkpoint Phase 1 is supposed to hit. No liver toxicity at any dose. Zero serious adverse events. Testosterone suppression confirming strong NK3R target engagement. Half life of approximately 24 days, which is exactly what you need to support once monthly subcutaneous dosing. The pharmacokinetic profile came back clean. The tolerability profile came back clean. The company immediately advanced into Phase 2 on the strength of this data. The market sold it because Phase 1 doesn’t come with efficacy numbers. That’s a different thing from the data being bad. Phase 1 confirmation is what makes Phase 2 credible, and that’s exactly what this was. The piece that keeps coming back to me is the hepatotoxicity comparison. Veozah, the only approved oral NK3R drug, has a Black Box Warning for liver toxicity and still pulled $234M in 9 months. ABCL635 showed zero liver enzyme elevations across all doses tested from 30mg to 900mg in the Phase 1 data released last week. That’s the dosing headroom that Astellas never had. If higher doses are safe, you can push efficacy further than Veozah ever could. Goldman sitting on 4.3M shares. Baker Bros increased from 9.1% to 10.8% the day before the readout. These people saw the data before we did. They added going into the announcement. $655M in liquidity. EPS beat. Revenue beat. Phase 1 cleared. Phase 2 on track for Q3. The sell off gave us a better entry on a story that actually got cleaner this week, not worse. Treating this as an accumulation phase.
It's time to lock in biotech anon $ABCL
As an investor, you want to know that the company you’re investing in is in good hands. Particularly the senior leadership team. That brings me to Carl Hansen, the CEO of @AbCelleraBio. First things first, he got his PhD in Applied Physics with a focus in biotechnology at Caltech. Caltech is notoriously hard to get into. Stephan Quake, his professor at CalTech has a lot of really great things to say about Carl Hansen. Per Gemini: Stephen Quake noted that microfluidic technology enabled Carl Hansen to conduct roughly 10,000 protein crystallization experiments in a single afternoon, whereas a traditional student using manual methods typically managed only 100 in a year. This breakthrough, which shifted manual laboratory work to automated nanoliter-scale processing, allowed Hansen to compress generations of labor into a few hours. Why do we care what Stephen Quake has to say? Well, he’s arguably one of the most influential bioengineers of the 21st century. A pioneer in microfluidics, he’s won nearly every major prize in his field. He’s also the Head of Science for the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative (6th richest person on the planet) and is in charge of their Biohub. He’s about as prestigious as it gets. Quake was recently interviewed in 2023 about his work at Caltech. He spoke highly of Carl Hansen a couple of times. Here’s the full interview: heritageproject.caltech.edu/interviews/ste…. Two excepts: “Then I sent him off to James's lab, for a week, and in a week, he did more experiments than James's best graduate student did in a year.” And “I would say the thing I'm most proud about, during that period, is not what my group did, but what my former student did—Carl Hansen, who was a student of mine at Caltech, and became a professor at the University of British Columbia, and then started a company called AbCellera, based on the work originally we had done together on microfluidics for single-call analysis. He refined that and built a company to do antibody discovery based on that. Part of what their business was, they had grants from the Department of Defense and NIH to practice for the next pandemic, so they were very well positioned when COVID happened. So, they got one of the very first North American blood samples, and over the course of a weekend, discovered hundreds of antibodies against COVID, and partnered with Lilly, and the very first approved COVID drugs in this country were AbCellera's, were Carl's. An amazing story! Millions of people took the drugs. Tens of thousands of lives saved. It's just incredible. It's an amazing story, and it's a Caltech story.” Immediately after getting is PhD, he completed a postdoctoral fellowship under Dr. Leroy Hood, the legendary scientist who invented the automated DNA sequencer that made the Human Genome Project possible. Hansen chose Hood for his postdoctoral fellowship specifically to learn how to apply his microfluidic physics background to massive, complex immune system datasets under Hood’s guidance. This cross-disciplinary approach directly inspired the data-heavy structure at AbCellera (Celium). Clearly Carl has surrounded himself with the bio elite. He applied his learnings by founding our beloved $ABCL. Starting from nothing, he’s built a billion dollar business in arguably the hardest industry to be successful in. Something tells me he’s got a lot more to accomplish. When you see his background above you realize that he thinks about doing things at scale. Not just one-offs. He wants to do 10,000 experiments in an afternoon, not 100 over a year. He’s thinking about many trials. Not just abcl635 but abcl688, abcl386, and 20+ more in the pipeline. He’s not thinking about one drug but a factory that consistently creates the hardest antibodies in the world. He’s co-authored more than 90 peer-reviewed publications and holds more than 75 patents and patent applications to his name. All so he can build the golden goose. We are in good hands and I feel lucky to be on the ride.
