Alethios

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Alethios

Alethios

@Alethios3

Scheming Vizier. Writing about strategy, policy, and public sector reform.

New Zealand Katılım Ekim 2021
433 Takip Edilen889 Takipçiler
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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
~~Long Form Highlights Thread~~ 1) Investigating one of the world's most restrictive planning regimes, 3-Bed apartments in Taipei routinely sell for 20x the median annual income. Much of the city cannot be practically rebuilt, despite decaying buildings. tinyurl.com/taiwan-housing
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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
@evrgn11112231 >Could go lower Do you agree it's undervalued or not? If so, your main concern with short term price action is that the market figures this out before you buy in, unless you're worried about margin calls. If this isn't intuitive, you should probably stick to index funds.
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Evergreen
Evergreen@evrgn11112231·
Surprising amount of pushback on here that essentially amounts to “yes but can’t own it (at least not in size) because it could be dead money or it could go lower before it goes higher because other investors might get scared (of the exact same things Zuck has already been doing for the entire existence of the company)”. If that’s what any of you think, I don’t know how to break it to you, but every stock can go lower at any time, for any reason at all (this is doubly true for all your longs where you don’t think this is the case). And if the best negative argument you can make is that other investors may behave in ways that you strongly believe to be non fundamental and irrational, then the setup may be quite a bit better than you appreciate. $META
Evergreen@evrgn11112231

$META check-in: - 20x GAAP PE - Growing revenue +30% yoy (engagement, CPM, then ad-load) [double the rate of $GOOGL on half the revenue base with a lower multiple] - User and engagement growth across all platforms - Reels engagement growing +30% - Threads and WhatsApp top 10 most downloaded apps (and WhatsApp #1 messaging platform globally) and both completely unmonetized - OpenAI pulling back on consumer (Meta won with impossible to replicate distribution) - All the costs of non-core AI in the financials with little of the benefit; 1B in AI DAUs and new team in place 8 months closing capability gap with frontier labs - 20% RIF (or more) likely coming soon worth likely HSD to mid/high teens % on EPS runrate [and most know they could probably double this and see no negative impact on operations] - Reality labs worth a few turns on the multiple and both masks underlying profitability while also providing substantial platform optionality from AR / AI agents - Building ahead on compute infra which means they will have by far the most 1P inference infra of anyone (and all of it will be pointed at the consumer)

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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
@Economissive Although, in the absence of broader congestion pricing, the revenue maximizing price is artificially low as people choose free alternatives.
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Economissive
Economissive@Economissive·
The problem is actually that the toll is set too low Tolls are never set at the price that pays for the road. Nowhere near The admin costs are not high. It's the revenue that's way too low making admin costs appear to be a large proportion
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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
@NathanpmYoung I'm not really trying to defend Herbert here, but you're clearly a little shaky on the details of the book, and what I've already written on the subject of their transportation.
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Nathan 🔎
Nathan 🔎@NathanpmYoung·
The fremen don't have ships or manifacturing. It isn't credible to me for them to be able to do a Jihad. And even if they do, how can one planet have enough soldiers to kill 100bns. I just doesn't feel at all real to me. It feels like Herberts justification for his tough moral problem (cos I suggest that Herbert cares a lot about how a world feels but less that it actually makes sense. he's great at dust and language and culture, shit at economics)
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Nathan 🔎
Nathan 🔎@NathanpmYoung·
Dune: I find, "do the most evil thing ever in order to save everyone" to be a pretty contrived narrative. If that was the universe I was in, I think I'd be surprised.
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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
@LondonNewLibs The Czechs have been building strong relations with the Taiwanese for years. The Czech Speaker gave a speech in the Taiwanese Yuan recently. Everybody involved in this knows exactly what is going on, fig leaf aside.
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London New Liberals
London New Liberals@LondonNewLibs·
“Hełło sir yes I am łegitimate Czech businessman in needing of 120,000 military grade drones capabłe of fighting over the eastern płains of … of the Czech Repubłic of course.”
Chris Painter@ChrisPainterYup

Seems like Taiwan is seriously ramping its Chinese-input-free domestic drone production, from producing 10,000 in 2024 to exporting 123,000 in 2025. This feels like a small subplot today that could become a huge deal down the road.

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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
@NathanpmYoung Gates? Think you might be getting your IPs mixed up. The guild are spice addicts who use the prescience it provides to navigate between stars, hence Fremen control of the spice allows control of the guild.
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Nathan 🔎
Nathan 🔎@NathanpmYoung·
@Alethios3 It's been a while since I read Dune but I don't recall the Fremen having ships. And the Spacer's guild controls all the gates? I just don't recall being at all convinced of that universe.
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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
@NathanpmYoung Jihad is the only option for the Fremen, in exactly the same way that (Tolstoy claims) war with Russia was the only option for the French. In-universe, we're simply told that Paul uses his prescience to try to avoid it, but only finds ways to alter the form of the inevitability.
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Nathan 🔎
Nathan 🔎@NathanpmYoung·
@Alethios3 I do not have some strong sense that a jihad is the only option. Like what is the in universe reason there? Paul seems very powerful actually.
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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
@NathanpmYoung Let's skip ahead to Bismarck's synthesis, shall we? “Man cannot create the current of events. He can only float with it and steer.”
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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
@hsu_steve Those who refuse to learn from literally_happening_right_now are doomed to repeat it.
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
The longer Hormuz remains closed, the more states will negotiate side deals with Iran for safe passage. I read that Italy is already doing this. Some Chinese ships pass now too. The US doesn’t intercept Iranian ships apparently. Maybe Hormuz just doesn’t reopen. It’ll be a nice lucrative little business for the IRGC and Tehran. The US Navy isn’t prepared to force it, and we’re told maybe a month from now if things are safer that they’ll do something about it Once it’s been closed a month, it’ll be another month, and then it’s just a thing that exists in the world. New facts have been created on the ground. Something similar happened with the Bab el Mandeb. It’s out of the headlines, but traffic is still down 75% from the pre-closure baseline. The US attempted to suppress the Houthi, but gave up: the first strategic defeat for the US Navy in the entire postwar era It can happen again
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Nathan 🔎
Nathan 🔎@NathanpmYoung·
This was filmed 13 years ago. Prescient on immigration, Truss being a lightweight, popularity of the greens. A lot in a short clip.
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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
New Zealand loves anti-'price gouging' populism so much it's willing to risk catastrophic oil shortages in the name of fairness.
Matthew Withy@MatthewWithy

@EricCrampton So stupid IMO. These guys might have to commit to spot cargoes on very short notice (or miss out) in the near future. Second guessing whether the price they pay will put them afoul of comcom when they sell is not ideal. Turning high prices into physical shortage would be vBad.

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aean
aean@aean0x·
>it's 2024 >working at Tesla >still no vector search for internal docs >nobody cares >nowhere near my job desc but fuck it we ball >4 months pass >14k LOC providing search for 4 services >literally learned swe just for this >go for prod approval >"but aean, Confluence already has search" >RIP anyway DM me for a CV if you're in a more flexible org and hiring.
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staysaasy
staysaasy@staysaasy·
Working with startup people > hey there’s this cool new tool > thanks for letting me know. I just checked it out and I agree. Let’s start using it! Working with non startup people > hey there’s this cool new tool > we already use a different tool. We dont have time to do an eval. We’re hiring someone next quarter who is going to own this. Have you talked to legal. Security will never sign off. Talk to my admin. It’s not in the fiscal plan.
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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
@shinboson “My bounty is as boundless as the sea, My love as deep; the more I give to thee, The more I have, for both are infinite.”
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Ex-Grammaton Cleric
Ex-Grammaton Cleric@OtunbaBrickz·
the problem with romanticizing an authoritarian like Lee kuan Yew is that people can get carried away with thinking this is the norm. meanwhile LKY is a 1 in a billion type of person, we might never see any authoritarian who balanced repression with freedoms as he did and taking a chance on finding one is extremely dangerous. Also the scale of the problem he had to deal with must also be taken into context, singapore was a population of 2m people.
Jaynit@jaynitx

>be Lee Kuan Yew >born 1923 in Singapore >British colony >fourth-generation Chinese >family is wealthy, English-speaking >top of every class 1942: >Japanese invasion >Singapore falls in 7 days >the British surrender >"impregnable fortress" — a joke >you're 18 >watch your colonial masters kneel >learn something >white men are not gods >power is earned, not inherited occupation: >survive under Japanese rule >learn Japanese, work as a translator >see brutality, corruption, chaos >nearly get executed in a random roundup >luck saves you >or destiny >you don't forget what powerlessness feels like 1946: >war ends >go to Cambridge >study law >graduate with double starred first >top of your class >marry Kwa Geok Choo >she graduates top of hers too >power couple before the term exists 1950: >return to Singapore >become a lawyer >defend unions, fight the British >anti-colonial firebrand >the communists want you >you use them >they think they're using you >they're wrong 1954: >found the People's Action Party >coalition of English-educated moderates and Chinese communists >you need their grassroots >they need your respectability >temporary alliance >you both know it 1959: >PAP wins elections >you become Prime Minister >age 35 >Singapore is still British >poor, dirty, overcrowded >no resources, no industry >malaria in the swamps >you: "we'll fix this" 1963: >join Malaysia >Singapore becomes part of the federation >finally independent from Britain >but the marriage is bad from day one >race riots, political clashes >Malay leaders don't want a Chinese-majority city >threatening their power August 9, 1965: >kicked out of Malaysia >not independence, expulsion >you announce it on television >you cry >the only time anyone sees you cry >"for me, it is a moment of anguish" >you're now leader of a country nobody wanted >no army, no water, no hinterland >just a swamp and 2 million people >survival is not guaranteed the problem: >no natural resources >not even fresh water >surrounded by hostile neighbors >communists infiltrating >racial tensions everywhere >how do you build a nation from nothing? the solution: >human capital >if you have nothing, invest in people >education, discipline, meritocracy >English as the common language >no corruption, zero tolerance >pay officials well so they don't steal >punish harshly when they do >caning, hanging, no exceptions >rule of law or rule of the jungle >you choose law the economics: >invite multinationals >make Singapore the easiest place to do business >low taxes, stable government, no bullshit >build infrastructure relentlessly >airport, port, housing >public housing for everyone >home ownership creates stability >people don't riot when they own property the authoritarianism: >no free press >defamation suits against critics >opponents bankrupted, jailed, exiled >chewing gum banned >long hair on men, suspicious >you run a tight ship >too tight, critics say >but the ship doesn't sink 1970s-80s: >Singapore transforms >from third world to first >GDP per capita explodes >skyline rises >slums become towers >swamp becomes financial hub >everyone wants to know the secret >the secret is you 1990: >step down as Prime Minister >after 31 years >but you don't leave >become Senior Minister >then Minister Mentor >shadow over everything >until you die the results: >GDP per capita: higher than the US, UK, Japan >one of the least corrupt countries on earth >best airport, best airline, best port >from fishing village to global city >in one generation >your generation the criticism: >authoritarian >no real democracy >freedom of speech, limited >you respond: "I'm not interested in being loved. I'm interested in being effective." >Singapore proves you right >or proves nothing matters except results March 23, 2015: >die at 91 >a million people line the streets >in the rain >to watch your funeral procession >the father of a nation from Japanese occupation >to British colonialism >to Malaysian expulsion >to building a nation from scratch Lee Kuan Yew. the man who turned a swamp into a superpower. Singapore exists because you refused to let it fail.

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Alethios
Alethios@Alethios3·
@airkatakana BW has had an incredible run, but Zerg is too strong now with modern macro and muta micro, and frankly I think the meta is starting to get a little stale as a result. Game needs a mild buff to missile turret and dark archon, and a mild nerf to hydra's cost effectiveness.
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Keşfet

@evrgn11112231 @Economissive @NathanpmYoung @LondonNewLibs @shinboson @hsu_steve @TheMindScourge @spandrell4