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The calamity that’s about to unravel in the global financial system over the next year or so will be the defining zeitgeist of the 2020’s
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Alex Saddler
1.4K posts
Alex Saddler
@AlexSaddler
Don’t take things too seriously. Self proclaimed expert on the upcoming financial crisis | @gatekeepchicago
Chicago, IL Katılım Ekim 2012
493 Takip Edilen282 Takipçiler
@other_st_nick So we know who to Venmo request for our rent prices going up now
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Me to everybody about Chicago
Jason, ex Inferis@benedictsred
This town’s big enough for the both of us. Get in here
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Think about it: Europe desperately needs dollars to buy oil. What’s stopping Trump from asking for Greenland and a more fair trade deal in return
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People aren’t realizing the massive leverage the US is about to have when countries start demanding we give them swap lines for the more US dollars
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People are thinking it’s an oil crisis that’s going to cause the deflationary spiral. That’s only partly correct. It’s really a massive USD liquidity crisis bubbling under the surface. Countries need USD dollars for energy and trade!
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@SamGreszes Finance bros are not in Wrigleyville lol. People just be spouting anything about Chicago these days
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so here's the thing, this isn't really what wrigleyville is anymore. Or it is but like, they re-gentrified over the past few years it so it's not frat bro dumb guys it's finance bro dumb guys and god it's so much worse now
microplastics rectifier@facetedcarapace
Wrigleyville is essentially a frat house turned into a neighborhood filled with the dumbest guys from Iowa and Wisconsin and Indiana . I think them wanting to hear country music while they engage in sexual harassment makes sense
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Alex Saddler retweetledi
We’re headed towards a high rate and high inflationary environment. AKA currency debasement and deflation
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
The bond market is collapsing again. The 10Y Note Yield is now silently back above 4.40%, the same exact level that has led to multiple market interventions by President Trump. Simply put, the US economy cannot afford the 10Y Note Yield rising substantially above current levels. As we saw in April 2025 and March 2026, President Trump is highly attentive to the 4.50% level on the 10Y Note Yield, which we previously labeled as our "policy pivot" point. At the current pace, we could see 4.50%+ within a matter of days. Meanwhile, US oil prices are above $108/barrel, gas prices are up another +5% today, and 30Y mortgage rates are at 6.50%+. The bond market will soon become the center of attention. Stay ahead of the trend.
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@steve_hanke How much of this is due to US hedge funds and their Treasury basis trades in the Cayman Islands
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Despite all the noise about de-dollarization, the FT reports that offshore dollar deposits just SURPASSED 14 TRILLION DOLLARS.
The dollar is FAR AHEAD of any rival and its lead is INCREASING.
KING DOLLAR = REIGNS SUPREME.
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@uncledoomer No this is an extinction level event for an economy. Deflationary spiral right into a depression
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Nobody wants to hear this, but this is what needs to happen to the boomers in America to fix the housing market for young people
Hedgeye@Hedgeye
🚨 China's Real Estate Market has erased all gains from the last 20 years
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Will Smith and George Lopez gotta be the all time funniest sitcom characters
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Alex Saddler retweetledi
The petro/LNG-dollar thesis is alive & well.
- Hormuz closure hits Asia first. Asian demand destruction caps the global price wave before it reaches the US.
- Europe & Asia pivot to US LNG & crude as the only viable supply outside the chokepoint.
- Foreign central banks hike or hold to fight inflation & defend their currencies.
- Meanwhile, Warsh cuts under cover of "AI disinflation". Swap lines open & Treasury runs stealth QE through bill issuance.
The US is an oasis of liquidity in a desert it engineered.
10Δ@_10delta_
The market has come to terms with reality & is essentially saying: 1. the US has achieved strategic leverage without destroying (in fact strengthening, as I’ve argued) its own economic base 2. Iran’s negotiating position, economic situation, & internal stability deteriorates with every day the blockade holds (patience is on Trump’s side) 3. the AI/tech supercycle is powerful enough to absorb the energy shock 4. Warsh will be confirmed & is bullish for the American economy
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@nic_carter I don’t understand. There’s always going to be red button pushers no matter what. Voting blue leaves your survival up to chance. If everyone votes red, everyone’s guaranteed to survive. What am I missing here
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Red is unambiguously the "game theoretically correct" position, but it's actually encouraging that the majority still picks Blue, because it means that a majority of people are willing to take on meaningful personal risk to save their neighbor, which I think is beautiful
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@SamGreszes @LeighGiangreco Could be if everybody stopped posting about it
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cannot overstate the fact that this is literally on the chicago riverwalk, the most touristy place in the city, and is one of very few places in the city that by definition cannot be gatekept
Gatekeep Chicago@gatekeepchicago
Guys I thought we agreed to gatekeep this
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This is why the US is offering dollar swap lines to its allies right now. They desperately need liquidity due to the oil shock. If not, they’d need to sell US equities and bonds off en masse
Alex Saddler@AlexSaddler
The world is quickly going into a dollar liquidity shock and deflationary spiral and we’ll try to get out of it with stimulus and printing. This causes hyperinflation and collapsing currencies. At that point, I’m sure the Fed will have to make a new digital USD on the blockchain backed by some form of scarcity to keep it stable
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@other_st_nick Chicago is Chiami during the summer and Chiberia during the winter. Everybody knows this
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Just saw someone call Chicago “Chiami” we have got to put a stop to that IMMEDIATELY
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Alex Saddler retweetledi
Reverse Repo just hit it's lowest level in more than five years. This is very serious.
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@pmarca Not true. I'm in NYC and just started using ChatGPT instead of Google for my searches. AI is gonna be huge.
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The gulf in knowledge between the West Coast and East Coast is wildly broader than I’ve ever experienced, in both directions. And widening further by the day.
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I’m willing to bet the banking crisis is only a few weeks away from kicking off
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Alex Saddler retweetledi
Trump is in full panic mode now.
Iran is demanding US blockade be ended in the Strait of Hormuz before they agree to any talks.
Let’s just admit it. They hold all of the cards.
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