Alexander G. Öhrn

BREAKING: Viktor Orbán quits Hungary's parliament after 36 years – confirming my earlier scoop that he's planning a longer US trip this summer, where heads of the Orbán business empire – his daughter and son-in-law – already live, and where he could seek refuge from prosecution.

Laut US-Geheimdienstquellen ist Irans Militär deutlich stärker, als Trump immer behauptet. Noch einsatzfähig: (1) etwa die Hälfte der Raketen; (3) 60% der Revolutionsgarden-Marine; (3) zwei Drittel der Luftwaffe. 👇 cbsnews.com/news/iran-more…

Good piece by @JeremyCliffe on the waning influence of MAGA and Donald Trump in the EU after @PM_ViktorOrban defeat in Hungary. Nonetheless Trump is likely to influence – or try to influence - next year’s French presidential election in three ways.   His direct influence, if he decides to endorse the likely far right candidate, Jordan Bardella, will be small. France, and especially nationalist France, will resent any attempt to interfere directly in the campaign. Trump’s anti-migration and anti-woke messages echo strongly with Rassemblement National voters and also many voters on the centre-right but Bardella and Le Pen will be anxious to distance themselves from the brutality and confusion of Trump’s delivery.   Trump’s anti-EU rhetoric is perhaps more useful to the RN but is associated in French voters’ minds with trade bullying and wanting to impose US standards on French consumers. A can of worms for Bardella. The Iran war is largely seen in France – over 80% against – as an ill-considered adventure for which France and Europe will have to pay the price (energy prices, immigration etc).   Trump’s indirect influence, by presenting a chaotic image of nationalist-populist politics and also a threat to France, may be more significant. First, opponents of the Rassemblement National will use Trump’s record to generate fear in the public mind of a similar leap in the dark in France. Secondly, Bardella will be only 31 at the time of next year’s campaign. Trump will inevitably become a campaign issue between rounds 1 and 2 when the last two candidates are traditionally scrutinised in a different way. Do they have what it takes to  be head of state? How will they stand up to people like Trump and Putin? That is unlikely to be helpful to Bardella.   The third way in which Trump may influence the campaign is even more indirect. If the election is fought against the background of recession, high energy prices and rising fiscal deficits, the anger of voters is likely to damage establishment candidates more than the RN. ft.com/content/cba21e…

For World Press Freedom Day, the Kyiv Independent store is launching a charitable merch collection, “No News is Bad News.” Photo: Yevhenii Zavhorodnii; Dmytro Smolienko / Getty Images.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE can export roughly two-thirds of their prewar oil output via pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz — and offset lower volumes by higher oil prices. “The Saudis have been the economic winners of this, if there is a winner. Many of the Gulf states are now dependent on Saudi for transporting goods through their borders,” said Dania Thafer, Qatar-based director of the Gulf International Forum think tank. “Qatar and Kuwait are locked in the Strait of Hormuz. In a way, closing the strait is more dangerous for them than the Iranian missiles flying in.” Still, unlike Iran, Qatar and Kuwait sit on sovereign-wealth funds worth several years of their GDPs, and can afford to ride out the crisis just by borrowing against their holdings. @Dr_DaniaThafer wsj.com/world/middle-e…

Didn’t expect the Pope, of all people, to deliver the best explanation of radicalisation in the age of AI. But here we are. 👇

A chilling investigation: In 1992, two young photographers captured executions from the war in Yugoslavia, but how? They were organised executions - for the photographs themselves. Astonishing work by Barbara Matejčić, for @newlinesmag. newlinesmag.com/reportage/they…

Woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic, and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth. #ApostolicJourney #Cameroon vatican.va/content/leo-xi…

NYT headline for the ages

All far right European nationalist-populists thought the Trump Admin would provide them with a nice tailwind and further legitimise them and their agenda to voters. Instead it's turning out to be a massive headwind - and they're all running for cover!

Trump says Meloni lacks courage. The real story: Meloni has a political brain - and has been distancing herself from Trump for months ft.com/content/284f10…

#BREAKING Trump to Meloni: 'She is the one who is unacceptable, because she does not care if Iran has a nuclear weapon and would blow up Italy in two minutes if she had the chance'

My thoughts in @guardian about what Magyar's election means for Hungary, Europe and Ukraine With the great @NathalieTocci and @zecsaky theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

They thought history was somehow bending in their direction. But that's not how history works. On Orban, and the illiberal leaders from around the world who flocked to support him: theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/…

The victory of the opposition in Hungary yesterday, like the Polish election in 2023, is a victory for democracy, not just in Europe but around the world. Most of all, it’s a testament to the resilience and determination of the Hungarian people – and a reminder to all of us to keep striving for fairness, equality and the rule of law.

#BREAKING Iran-US face-to-face talks in Islamabad conclude, sides begin exchanging written texts on key issues, Pakistani sources confirm to Anadolu, as talks 'may' move to 2nd day

Back in 2008, when Ghalibaf was mayor of Tehran, he attended the World Economic Forum in Davos to tout economic opportunities in his city. The New York Times ran a piece on him, describing him as a "presidential contender." Asked about relations with the U.S., he replied, "If the United States can change its unilateral approach and replace it with a bilateral approach, then we can have dialogue." An aide then explained to the reporter that Iran wanted the United States to treat it as an equal partner, not as a renegade nation to be brought into line. All these years later, Ghalibaf is arriving in Islamabad with the authority of a president and with a mandate to hold historic talks with the U.S.

With this settlement the US is worse off in every way than it was before the war; Iran is strengthened by the huge new tolls in the Straits of Hormuz, paid by the whole world. (1/14)

#BREAKING US must choose ceasefire or continued war through Israel, 'it cannot have both,' says Iranian foreign minister, arguing 'The ball is in the U.S. court'

Iranian attacks on the Gulf since the start of the ceasefire: 🇸🇦 Targeting of East-West oil pipeline + 9 drones 🇦🇪 17 ballistic missiles + 35 drones 🇶🇦 7 ballistic missiles + several drones 🇰🇼 28 drones causing “significant damages” to energy, power and water facilities 🇧🇭 Several houses damaged in drone interceptions