Jeremy Cliffe

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Jeremy Cliffe

Jeremy Cliffe

@JeremyCliffe

Editorial Director & Senior Policy Fellow @ECFR | Formerly @OpenSociety @NewStatesman @TheEconomist | Also at: https://t.co/ywrF7IBvrK

Berlin, Germany Katılım Ocak 2012
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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
Enjoyed our two launches (Paris on Monday, Vienna today) of this paper from @ecfr's New Politics Project. France's far-right could win 2027's presidential election. @celiabelin, @CamilleLons, Constance Victor and I explore how that might play out ⬇️ ecfr.eu/publication/if…
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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
Nymphenburg twilight
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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
That European defence fragmentation costs as much as €57bn annually (~France’s defence budget) illustrates the vacuity of % spending targets blind to capabilities, integration, value for money and industrial sovereignty
Marcos Agustín@marcosagusstinn

🇫🇷 Macron: “Separate national defence strategies are an absurdity.” Only 18% of European defence investment is conducted collaboratively. Europe wastes €18–57bn every year through fragmentation A common defence policy is essential for two reasons: 1. To stop wasting resources that should support households and essential social programmes. 2. To prevent war through overwhelming collective strength. A continent that shares the same geography, threats and major trading partners cannot continue with fragmented national defence policies. reuters.com/business/aeros…

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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
“München leuchtete. Über den festlichen Plätzen und weißen Säulentempeln, den antikisierenden Monumenten und Barockkirchen, den springenden Brunnen, Palästen und Gartenanlagen der Residenz spannte sich strahlend ein Himmel von blauer Seide”
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Clément Macchi
Clément Macchi@clement_mci·
📊 Intentions de vote à la présidentielle @elabe_fr x @BFMTV ✅ Le Pen 52 - Philippe 48 ✅ Le Pen 54 - Attal 46 ✅ Le Pen 56 - Retailleau 44 ✅ Le Pen 58,5 - Glucksmann 41,5 ✅ Le Pen 67,5 - Mélenchon 32,5
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Szabolcs Panyi
Szabolcs Panyi@panyiszabolcs·
"I do not believe Vučić will concede power peacefully, the way Viktor Orbán did after losing the election in Hungary." As Serbia heads toward elections, attacks on civil society reveal a darker pattern: Moscow and Belgrade often chase the same enemies. vsquare.org/hybrid-war-ove…
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ECFR
ECFR@ecfr·
Would a Le Pen government seek confrontation with Brussels? How might it reshape France’s approach to migration, the EU budget and European integration? Could nationalist governments across Europe really cooperate? And how would a Le Pen presidency impact relations with Ukraine, the US and France’s European allies? 🎧 Listen to full episode here: bit.ly/4vVCY03
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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
Growing unease at Germany's giant defence ramp-up in French strategic circles, where the perception is that Berlin is too focused on its own national industries and too relaxed about entrenched dependencies on the US - at the expense of European defence integration.
Gérard Araud@GerardAraud

Nos autorités savent désormais que l’Allemagne n’a nullement l’intention de développer des projets d’armement avec la France mais d’utiliser ses capacités budgétaires pour sa propre industrie quitte à le faire sous licence américaine. Ni France ni autonomie stratégique….

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Stephen Wertheim
Stephen Wertheim@stephenwertheim·
Think of it: A NATO summit at which the American president called for taking control of an ally's territory is deemed a success.
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Maria Tadeo
Maria Tadeo@mariatad·
Lagarde on joint borrowing - watch in full. This is an important debate for Europe.
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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
It's early days, and France's election is still wide open, but still: European policymakers should start thinking and planning now for the eventuality of a President Le Pen. Some initial thoughts from @celiabelin and me: ecfr.eu/article/how-to…
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Clément Macchi
Clément Macchi@clement_mci·
Récap des intentions de vote @harrisint_fr : Marine Le Pen (34-36%) remonte au même niveau que Jordan Bardella, moins de 24h après son JT de 20h. Récupération immédiate des électeurs partis chez Retailleau et Zemmour.
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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
There are two ways the rest of EU can respond to this fundamentally pragmatic and necessary idea from Spain's government: 1) embrace it now in an orderly & negotiated way, 2) reject it now then grab for it in a panic during the next major European crisis. politico.eu/article/spain-…
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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
The defense of Rutte sycophancy is that it is supposed to moderate Trump--who instead only reiterated threats to Greenland, berated Europeans over Iran, called to cut off ties to Spain, said US has "nothing to do with" Ukraine war, and was silent about ongoing Russian aggression in Europe. The flattery doesn't contain him it encourages him.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar

WOW -- Danish reporter *goes there* with Mark Rutte "You sit next to Donald Trump at moments when he talks about conquering Greenland, talks about lashing out at allies like Spain -- things it doesn't seem like the old Mark Rutte would approve of. Does this have any affect on your self-respect when you sit there and say nothing?"

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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
Speaking to TF1, Marine Le Pen has just announced she will submit an appeal to the Court of Cassation and seek to run for the presidency. Hugely significant news for France - and Europe.
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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
Le Pen to announce her intentions at 20:00 CET
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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
Le Pen appeal verdict in: she *can* run for president, but with an electronic bracelet (something in past she said she would not seek to do). Now up to her to announce her intentions.
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Jeremy Cliffe
Jeremy Cliffe@JeremyCliffe·
@APHClarkson On paper yes but also untested. Less clear how he'd respond to heat of campaign (Le Pen's missteps in 2017 and lessons thereof are a major part of internal RN lore).
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Keşfet

@sigmargabriel @PascalLamyEU @EnricoLetta @MalmstromEU @ecfr @jbdacey @h_lovatt @elabe_fr