Allmrkts
20.9K posts

Allmrkts
@Allmarkets
#Bitcoin - Watch What They Do, Not What They Say - Not Financial Advise
Katılım Ocak 2021
574 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
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@1882_Tottenham Happy that you stayed in PL, now you have another chance of almost relegation.
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@nderchris @jdorman81 I actually dont think so, this is not a one sided execution, the speed of change is increasingly weird. The strategy simply doesnt add up, ypu accummulated through STRC then use that, not the cash, 92cent on the dollar to pay of debt, doesnt make sense.
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@jdorman81 Strategy is deliberately trading liquidity for lower future dilution and a simpler capital structure, which is defensible but increases short-term fragility.
You are clearly pushing and overstating the bear case.
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i'm not in Saylor's inner circle, but this $MSTR story has gotten so out of hand, my only guess is this:
- MSTR could have sat and done nothing before they started pumping out $billons of prefs... it would have made MSTR boring (little buys, no sells), but it would have been stable x.com/jdorman81/stat…
- But the push into these prefs was based on him clearly thinking $BTC was about to moon — not sure what he saw to think that (4 year cycle, flows, ???) but that's the only reason to take that sort of miscalculated risk to screw up his balance sheet so badly -- he must have thought BTC was about to fly and he could easily pay the pref dividends with future BTC sales.
- Then BTC started falling, and the market got spooked because the $15 bn in prefs have a $1.5 bn/year annual dividend, so he raised $2 bn in cash via stock just to alleviate any near-term default concerns — that bought him almost 2 years of runway to pay dividends. Smart move
At that point, he could have chilled for a little, and even though he now has every stakeholder pinned against each other, there was at least no near term risk x.com/jdorman81/stat…
- But then for some unknown reason, he decides to take that cash buffer and buyback 2029 maturity bonds instead of using it to fund the annual dividends (at a discount, so it's at least mildly accretive to MSTR). This is a baffling decision for a company with cash flow problems. Why pay off 0% coupon debt with the only cash you have?
The only bull case is that underestimating Saylor's capital markets chicanery has been a losing proposition for years. Maybe there was a plan?
That plan may just be selling BTC, which he will have to do eventually, but if he does this while BTC is in a death spriral it's going to crush BTC and MSTR. So again, why buyback the debt now and force your hand sooner than you have to?
Maybe he is going to refinance those converts with new longer-dated converts? He has sworn off converts, so I doubt it, but that would at least logically make sense.
But TLDR -- this is the first time that MSTR, BTC and Pref holders are really in bind. Someone is going to lose badly here, and it will happen in the next 4 months.
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Strategy CEO @PhongLe discusses $BTC, $STRC, $MSTR, and our capital markets strategy to acquire Bitcoin and increase Bitcoin Per Share with @LizClaman.
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@Allmarkets @LawrenceLepard If you slept 7 hours you got 16,4 interruptions AHI which indicates for apnea. You should take proper test which measures hourly interruptions. Take care.
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Old Guy, health advisory. Public Service. So i go pretty hard, never felt fully rested and generally feel cranky at 68 yo. Nap a lot. Wife says I snore a lot. New Doc said you gotta take a sleep test. I did. Severe sleep apnea. Got a CPAP machine, 25 days in and holy shit do I feel great. Wake up refreshed. Like when I was young. Mind is clearer and more positive. I cannot overemphasize the difference. ChatGPT says over 50% of older men have apnea. Worth getting checked out.
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@Allmarkets Whoa. Entire night or per hour?
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@LawrenceLepard Ok, mine showed 115 stops during a night sleep and im half your age.
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@Allmarkets AHI was 30-50 per hour, now 3-6
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🚨JUST IN: Erling Haaland could consider leaving Manchester City following Pep’s departure.
[@SkySportPL]

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everything trades like crypto now. it’s beautiful
The Wheelie Investor@WheelieInvestor
Can someone please explain how a $1 trillion company can go up 20% in one day?
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@BullTheoryio Or they just sell bitcoin retire all debt, and this is done and out
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BREAKING: Strategy just spent $1.38 billion, nearly 61% of its entire cash reserves to buy back its own debt at a discount.
Strategy borrowed money years ago by issuing convertible notes due in 2029.
Those notes are now trading below face value. So instead of waiting until 2029 to pay them back at full price, Strategy bought them back today at a cheaper rate.
It is a smart move on paper.
Retiring debt at a discount saves money and cleans up the balance sheet. The problem is they used $1.38 billion of a $2.25 billion cash pile to do it.
Strategy now has roughly $871 million in cash left.
A company that holds 843,738 Bitcoin worth $64.8 billion just spent nearly 61% of its liquid cash cushion on a debt cleanup.
If Bitcoin drops sharply, their margin situation tightens and that $871 million buffer is all that stands between them and a forced sale of Bitcoin holdings.
This is either very disciplined financial management or a very thin safety net. Depends entirely on where Bitcoin goes next.


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