Satishan (AlphaMonk)
1.2K posts

Satishan (AlphaMonk)
@AlphaMonk10
AlphaMonk Founder Editor | ETF Beta ↔ Alpha: Tech/Crypto 10x → Global (🇺🇸🇬🇧🇮🇳) → On Substack ➡️ https://t.co/AOw0dDZblz
London, England Katılım Kasım 2024
58 Takip Edilen188 Takipçiler

One of the things that is hard, particularly for the retail investor, is grasping the discounting function of markets. They go with the news, not realising a market is the sum total of all kinds of views. It’s an incredibly efficient way to capture every view and express it in a single price.
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Satishan (AlphaMonk) retweetledi

The Second-Order Effects Nobody Is Talking About
The Strait of Hormuz does not just carry oil. It carries the raw material inputs for the entire real economy. Urea fertiliser. The nitrogen base for a significant portion of global crop production passes through the strait. Phosphates, another critical agricultural input, pass through the strait. Sulphur, aluminium, liquefied natural gas, petrochemical feedstocks. All of it moves through that twenty-one-mile channel.
The disruption to these flows is already registering. Urea fertiliser prices have risen approximately 28% since the closure began. Diesel has crossed $5 a gallon just as American farmers are entering planting and seeding season. Larry McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report, framed the second-order effects precisely: the disruption to supply chain trust across the Gulf region will take sixty to ninety days to begin normalising even after the physical flows resume.
Bunkering fuel. The heavy fuel oil that powers cargo vessels is becoming scarce in key Asian ports. If bunkering fuel becomes broadly unavailable, the secondary disruption to global trade could rival the supply chain seizure of the COVID era. That disruption was inflationary for the better part of three years.
The oil shock is the headline. The food inflation shock, the fertiliser shock, the shipping disruption. These are the second chapter. They are arriving now. Most people have not yet noticed them at the supermarket till.
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None of us is smart enough to consistently pick the exact top or bottom. In normal times, you edge in and out based on your own risk tolerance, accept that you’ll be early, and let patience do the heavy lifting. This cycle is different only in that we’re so late in the move and the wall of worry is still high. Oil, rates, gold, silver, private credit, geopolitics. That constant scepticism is precisely what fuels the final advance.
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I need to leak something today.
Something the mainstream media will never report.
It was not Modi.
It was not Jaishankar.
Not his quiet back channel across Tehran, Gulf and Washington.
No.
It was our beloved Cambridge educated Young Prince of India.
Rahul Gandhi Ji.
He personally held a 24 hour call with the IRGC leadership.
On chai.
And Parle G biscuits.
No compromise.
No Epstein files.
Just pure intellectual firepower.
He opened the call by explaining something critical.
India is not actually a country.
It is a collection of states.
A divided nation.
With zero reservation in Apollo Hospital.
The IRGC commanders listened in silence.
They wept.
They immediately grasped the gravity of India's:
Healthcare crisis.
Reservation Crisis.
Then Rahul Ji switched gears.
He told Iranian leadership he is not compromised like Modi.
America and Israel can wait.
He said what Modi is too shy to say.
The real alliance India should have is with China.
Not with the US.
He even displayed the CCP Agreement.
He then recited a mantra.
Holding his grandmother's Rudraksh.
The Supreme National Security Council of Iran froze in their chairs.
And then the results came.
6 LPG carriers.
1 LNG carrier.
4 oil tankers.
1 products tanker.
3 container ships.
2 bulk carriers.
All 28 ships.
Released.
Heading home.
Within 72 hours.
They even threw in extra ships from some unknown country.
Just out of sheer dosti.
Meanwhile in Parliament.
Modi Ji had apparently fainted.
The moment Rahul Ji walked in.
He was shivering.
As if he touched 240 volts.
Jaishankar quietly passed a chit to Rahul Ji.
“Please handle the LPG situation.”
And Hardeep Puri Ji was found frozen at his desk.
Still processing his Epstein file conversations.
People who think this is a joke are completely wrong.
Diplomacy is a serious science.
You cannot do diplomacy by hugging world leaders.
You cannot do it by visiting 50 countries.
You cannot do it by projecting strength.
Or civilisational pride.
Or strategic confidence.
Real diplomacy requires a Cambridge degree.
Real diplomacy requires a Gandhi surname.
Real diplomacy requires a grandfather like Nehru.
Not a mere chai wala from Gujarat.
You must tell Iran that India is religiously intolerant.
You must demand caste reservation in the military.
You must portray India as poor, divided, and desperate.
You must display Hindus as oppressor.
Only then will any country listen.
That is the Congress model of foreign policy.
Beg first.
Borrow credibility.
Deliver nothing.
611 sailors were stranded in a live war zone.
The man who apparently saved them.
Was having chai.
At Parliament steps.
With biscuits.
Just see how diplomacy works.
Congress can only save this country.
God save the LPG cylinder.
God save Rahul Gandhi Ji.
Bharat Needs Rahul Ji.
Jai Hind.

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@LuxVibe_ I and A Killer - 2 additional people then 52-30 = 22
OR
I = A Killer then 51-30 = 21
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@HouseofFlagons @mamboitaliano__ Beauty and Ugly are in the eyes of the beholder. The beholder in this case is the official who approved it.
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@mamboitaliano__ Why do these “innovations” have to be so ugly? Why not a series of classic bridges in keeping with the architecture of Venice? Shouldn’t aesthetic continuity be the first question an architect considers?
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@WesternOpus @mamboitaliano__ London’s skyscrapers are a treat to sore eyes.
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@TonyMiskatonic @mamboitaliano__ I am sure the architect must’ve been on a beach when he conceptualised this.
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@jjeebhoy @mamboitaliano__ Wrong assessment. You have no clue about Europe and its capabilities. But I do agree that they have an irritating fascination for retaining old buildings under the guise of heritage. Funnily its costs more to retain a crumbling edifice rather than constructing a new one.
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@mamboitaliano__ Europeans take a weird pride in being old, tired, irrelevant, and broke. Truly destined to be nothing more than a holiday destination, but they don’t like tourists either. It’s going to be a harsh future.
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@mamboitaliano__ It’s looking good to be fair. Not sure what the issue is. I would rather save Venice with this rather than kill it with nothing. It’s definitely far better than the eye sore London eye. 🤣😀
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@ChandlerForPB Dude not sure what point you are trying to prove. And yes, there are Indian companies with American or European CEOs.
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Russia and China by nature do not announce their presence. They just silently get on with their jobs. Get out of your bubble sir! It may not be evident, there’s a tri-polar world emerging which will actually be bullish for the entire world, not just USA. A prosperous planet is great for all countries.
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@MDXcrypto @grok Silly post! If it was feasible it would have been done already.
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@Jesii_ca_M Interesting experiment to ask for a man who doesn’t use social media on social media!
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I will only marry a man who:
- Takes care of my parents like his own
- Purely Vlrgin
- Who pays my bills
- 6'2 perfect height
- Not more than 79 kg in weight
- Knows cooking
- Earn good money
- Doesn't use social media
- Has no female friends
- Asks permission before going anywhere
- Deletes her past completely
- Never gets angry
- Calm and "understanding" 24×7
Where can I find him, or if anyone here, let me know?
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@TheBTCTherapist Because it is a pretty stupid suggestion
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