Alpholio

@WCInvestor By this token, you can question every rational financial decision based on numbers, which makes no sense.

People like to say that paying off debt is an emotional decision. That it just makes you feel warm and fuzzy. No, those who pay it off just recognize their own humanity. Nobody is arguing with the math. If you borrow at 2% and then invest the same amount of money at 5%, you'll come out ahead (at least before taxes.) The problem is the unspoken assumption that you will actually invest every dollar that would have gone toward paying off that debt. Most people aren't investing those dollars. They are spending them. And if you're honest with yourself, you probably are, too.

@charliebilello If comparing dollar amounts over periods of time longer than a few years, always adjust for inflation.

Total assets in money market funds have hit a record $7.7 trillion, tripling over the last 8 years. bilello.blog/newsletter

In August 2025, import prices of consumer goods excl. automotives were the same as in February (index = 110.1). So, who is paying the tariffs?

@awealthofcs The first table in your post is supposed to show nominal returns but it shows real returns (same as the second table).

The case against owning bonds: -Inflation could re-accelerate -Government spending is not slowing down -Rates could rise The case for bonds: -Yields are much higher -The labor market is slowing -Fed is cutting -Recessions are still a thing (right?) awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/buy-wh…

@charliebilello Distro of returns is not normal and sometimes not even monomodal (has multiple peaks). In addition, the random process is non-stationary. Almost all simulations make such assumptions, so they are effectively useless.

The stock market’s average total return is 10% per year. But don’t mistake that for consistency. Over 97 years, returns were within 2% of that number just 4 times. Lesson? Compounding comes in lumpy, unpredictable bursts. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=9T34gi…

@PeterMallouk Misattribution. snopes.com/fact-check/com…

"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it." - Albert Einstein

@dollarsanddata ...and boomers "actively subsidized" both the older and younger generations, while diligently saving and investing as much as possible, which will eventually be transferred mostly tax-free to younger generations thanks to the step-up basis and Roth. So, stop whining!

One of my big predictions for the next 5 years is that we are going to see much more ageism in the U.S. I am not saying this is right, but given the current distribution of wealth (and homeownership), it seems inevitable

@Vanguard_Group Instead of celebrating, finally fix the bugs on the Performance page of your website: incorrect counting of foreign dividends and taxes as deposits/withdrawals and date range radio button getting out of sync when an account filter is applied. Reported those back in May!

Celebrating 50 years of Vanguard: Reflecting on our journey and commitment to investors. From reducing fund fees over 2,000 times to pioneering low-cost solutions, our mission remains steadfast: your investment success. vgi.vg/42ERTQ0

@dollarsanddata More like 68% of the time: corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/co… So, according to Kelly criterion one should DCA 36% of the remaining investible funds at a time.

Lump sum investing beats dollar cost averaging 70%-80% of the time across nearly every asset class. When investing, it usually pays NOT to wait.

@bowenpayson @nathanbaugh27 Bowen, can you please have this bug fixed ASAP in Amazon Music app on Fire Stick/Cube? Plenty of users complaining. Customer Service ineffective. See audiosciencereview.com/forum/index.ph…

@nathanbaugh27 As a Product Lead at Amazon, I can attest that this is so much more effective than anything tried in previous jobs. Huge fan.

Jeff Bezos said: “There is no way to write a six-page narratively structured memo and not have clear thinking.” Here’s the writing framework Bezos uses (that you can too):

@ericwallerstein @GRogow @RyanDezember @_willparker_ A ~20-year spending timespan without adjustment for inflation?

Spending on home improvement & repairs is forecast to decline over the next year, the first contraction since the depths of the foreclosure crisis in 2010 great story from @RyanDezember & @_willparker_: wsj.com/articles/the-b…

@WCInvestor So where to invest internationally? Not in the EU or UK (market dominated by finance and old industrials with hardly any leading tech, subject to energy and war threats; all amply documented in The Economist). Not in Japan (once-dominant companies facing adverse demographics).

Don't bail out on international stocks. There are 195 countries in the world today, but when it comes to publicly traded stocks, 60% of the market capitalization is in the United States as of late 2022. Yes, the US has been a huge player, but it has never been the only game in town. Despite that fact, there are a lot of people out there these days making arguments not to invest in international stocks at all. These arguments include: US companies do business all over the world Jack Bogle said you don't need international stocks The US has the strongest property laws so they will have the best long term returns International markets are corrupt But let's be honest, the real reason that people are avoiding international stocks and justifying their behavior is simply that over the last 15 years the US Stock Market has returned 9.7% per year and international stock markets have only returned 2.93% per year. It's just performance chasing. A reasonable allocation for international stocks for a US investor ranges from 10% to 50% of equity. When international stocks underperform, you should put more of your new investing dollars into them to bring your asset allocation back in line with your written investing plan. When US stocks underperform, you should do just the opposite. If things really get out of whack and you can't rebalance just with new money, you should sell (preferably in a tax protected account) some of the asset that has done well and buy some of the asset that has done poorly, at least once every two to three years. What you should not do is say to yourself, "Man, these performance numbers for international stocks look terrible. I'm going to quit investing in them." That is highly likely to lead to regret. Maybe not this year. Maybe not even 5 years from now. But eventually, you are likely to regret investing while looking in the rear view mirror. Do you have international stocks in your portfolio?

@PhysicianOnFIRE @Vanguard_Group Vanguard's service has been deteriorating for years. They've gotten so big they do not care about even the HNW clients.

Pardon me, @Vanguard_Group -- I entered the correct password and 2FA number, and this is what I get. A request for a phone call where I click through to be told I'll have a 40-minute wait. I'll be on a plane by then. Shoddy service for Flagship status, whatever that's worth.

"Passive" ETFs *actively* manage security baskets and cash to improve liquidity. Average bond ETF has a tracking error (TE) of 36 bps annually relative to its underlying index, and the TEs are significantly larger for ETFs holding less liquid bonds. knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/why-pa…

@IvanTheK Had to explain to two CPAs that US territory bond interest is exempt from state and local income tax, too. They botched tax returns and were fired.

Just had to explain to a registered investment advisor that US Treasury interest is exempt from state income tax. 🤪

@jasonzweigwsj @anfuller If you want to go to all that trouble to lend the gov't your money at a 0% *real* fixed rate for at least 5 years (to avoid interest penalty) and, preferably, for 30 years, go right ahead... treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research…

my latest (with the great @anfuller): wsj.com/articles/SB108… For most investors, buying an I bond with its 9.62% yield is easy. For an unlucky few, it's a bureaucratic "Bataan death march."

@JamesSurowiecki 30 fps is also fake since the standard/traditional rate is 24 fps.

On a Roku, is there a way to stream movies from HBOMax or DisneyPlus in 4K but 30fps, rather than 60fps? I just can't get used to how fake most movies look at 60fps.

@WCInvestor Xfinity Mobile (on Verizon network) + Xfinity Internet only. Don't use much mobile data (family plan comes with 1 GB/mo anyway); it automatically connects to Xfinity WiFi hotspots everywhere. 3 lines w/unlimited voice+text cost ~$29/mo in total.

Do you have any favorite frugal hacks? Have they made your life better? How much do you think you saved per year once you implemented them?

75 bps Fed rate ranges?

@charliebilello What is the mean and std dev of this time series?

The correlation between stocks and bonds over the last two years is the highest we've seen since 1995-1997.