Eric Wallerstein
6.7K posts
Eric Wallerstein
@ericwallerstein
Chief Macro Strategist, Clocktower Group. formerly at the Fed, White House, WSJ.
Santa Monica, CA Katılım Mart 2020
2.2K Takip Edilen12.8K Takipçiler
Today was my last day at Bloomberg. I joined on Jun 8, 2020 in the middle of the COVID pandemic on @tracyalloway’s referral. These 6 years were a tremendously rewarding experience! I’m deeply grateful to my Bloomberg colleagues and friends. Now onto something new! Stay tuned! 🙏
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@timhoodjr @BobEUnlimited disagreement makes markets go round
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Data today continues to show that US manufacturing is weak and softening.
Quite the contrast to all the folks around here desperately trying to make the case that some kind of boom is happening.
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this is the first day that selling is concentrated in u7-u8.
before today, hawkish moves would concentrate in early 2027, and you’d have flattening further out.
the hiking cycle is being pushed out and m7m8 has likely bottomed.
Eric Wallerstein@ericwallerstein
bombs away and SOFR making new lows june ‘27 contract implies roughly a full rate hike
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@deerpointmacro big time, although bonds have already done the work for them !
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NY Fed manufacturing +9 to 19.6, highest level in 4+ years
industrial production +0.7% m/m and +1.4% y/y
weeeee
Eric Wallerstein@ericwallerstein
first slide of my deck when i joined clocktower in Feb was: MANUFACTURING IS IN GOOD SHAPE i lost a lot of people right then & there
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CIA could fucking waterboard me and I still wouldn't divulge the OTHER section
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer
one succinct observation is that nicholas decker thinks his experience is worthy of a two-page resume
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@OnodaCapital it’s def mnpi but you’re right, no prosecution
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I don't think it's MNPI. Just generational edge bc mkt moves on few variables.
MNPI to short IGV when u know timing of Claude Cowork PR?
Buy CRWV when u know Anthro ARR went $10B>$20B in 1 mo?
Gf tells u Ant can't get enough memory?
Crusoe site is labor shitshow so buy FIX?
Hiroo Onoda@OnodaCapital
It will never get prosecuted, and arguably is not MNPI But access to Anthropic / OAI info has been an unbelievable advantage
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hey @NickTimiraos when are you going to announce the Powell sequel?
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Eric Wallerstein retweetledi
The BOJ is always worried that it will over tighten. But in Japan's bank lending data, there is no sign of any tightening at all.
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@RajaKorman oh i wasn’t arguing with the second half, just that as yields fall there’s less of an incentive for some US biz to keep cash in mmf before converting to cash for payments vs just holding in stablecoins the whole time
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@ericwallerstein That’s a non-GENIUS product (or at best partially compliant one) no? And as T-bill rates fall, everyone , but especially yield paying stablecoin issuers do have to reach beyond purest $ safe-assets for their balance sheet?
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Btw, one point here is that as front-end rates fall, it hits the vig (and the economics) of stablecoin issuers, potentially increasing the incentives to take more regulatory window-dressing-adjusted risk on duration, credit quality, liquidity, or general client dodginess.
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen
"It's fine - we'll just shift issuance to the front end, have Warsh cut rates & flood the world with T-Bill backed stablecoins to finance US deficits..."
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@ericwallerstein Do you follow Tom Hoenig? I believe his handle there is FinRegRag. Excellent stuff IMO.
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@BlacklionCTA def, and not an exclusively monpol angle. i liked it
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@ericwallerstein I thought this one was a somewhat provocative for a first post by a former regional president.
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@tolstoybb gilt yields can still fall if rachel reeves has the courage to freeze rent increases
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I think the Labour Party should ignore the bond market and see what happens. Everyone always chickens out. Labour has nothing to lose. The economic data would be a gift for generations to come.
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