Roger Fan

1/ I run a concentrated, long-only global equities strategy. The top positions drive the outcome. Everything else is noise.

@TMTLongShort Makes sense. Data is only useful in the right framework. The edge is in how you apply it.

The reason why I listen to an inordinate amount of podcasts instead of having AI just condense datapoints is because what I find most valuable is being able to deconstruct people’s mental frameworks and then insert my own datapoints through them later on. My day job is filled with max density of datapoints. It’s all I do. Countless research reports, news headlines, transcripts and filings. But data is only as useful as the framework it fits into. And I also have to solve for my brains tendency to tune out if sufficient dopamine isn’t being generated. So I digest the slop. And with enough reps and a creative mind you can extract a lot more than you think. But it’s mostly the meta. If you want pure datapoints you are far better off reading a semianalysis substack from top to bottom.

@uboat159 It is. If you’re right, exits are easier than building size. When you’re wrong, exits get harder fast.

@rgrfan Double edge sword...

Liquidity dictates position sizing in smaller caps. It's not optional - it's the constraint.

Most names fail on something simple: slowing growth, weak margins, or no clear driver. That’s usually enough to pass.

@orrdavid Looks amazing. How does that stack up with the best pizza you've had globally?

The food in Osaka is so damn good.

@iancassel Completely agree. Over-preparation shows respect for the opportunity.

Over preparing is the key to success. It shows you respect the situation (the interview, the meeting, the presentation, the test, the tryout, etc) and it shows off the best of who you are with no regrets regardless of the outcome.

Concentration only works if you’re willing to continuously re-underwrite your positions. Otherwise it’s just risk, not edge.

@orrdavid It’s an alignment problem on both sides. Managers optimize for AUM because fees reward it. Allocators select for optics because their incentives reward it. You get marketing on both ends.

Most funds are in the professional marketing business, not performance business. Most people who allocate to them are not investors, either. They are just good at playing workplace politics. For instance, mitimco's whole "help emerging managers" schtick was just a guy trying to solidify his cushy job. It was all just surface level bullshit, where for instance I know one of the service providers they list has awful service. They just want the appearance of doing something more than allocating to marketing people. More people should try to invest. They competition just isn't tough if someone has the traits needed to perform will And finally, more people should launch lower fee vehicles for people to invest alongside them. It's so easy to add real value with a low enough fee hurdle.

5/ I write occasionally about process and positioning. If this resonates, feel free to follow.

4/ Risk is sizing + re-underwriting. I sell when the thesis breaks. Volatility is expected. Permanent loss isnt.

1/ I run a concentrated, long-only global equities strategy. The top positions drive the outcome. Everything else is noise.

@KiaBesharat @ChuckLiddell @LukeRockhold @mpierce_ago @ybock @snamiri For sure. Looking forward to it!

@rgrfan @ChuckLiddell @LukeRockhold @mpierce_ago @ybock @snamiri What an epic week! My pleasure. Let’s red carpet again soon.

My latest interview with Graham & Doddsville @Columbia @Columbia_Biz! static1.squarespace.com/static/5977308…

@StockJabber @VariantMkt @Jaro_rogue @blueoutliercap @orrdavid @natstewart5 @aaronjsallen @Mike10947310 @HindeGroup Thanks Edwin!

@Jaro_rogue — Rogue Funds, Small/Mid-Cap @blueoutliercap — Blue Outlier, value/special situations @orrdavid — Militia Capital, global L/S @natstewart5 — N.A.S. Capital, value/small-caps @aaronjsallen — Merion Road, small-caps @Mike10947310 — Independent, small-caps @HindeGroup — Hinde Group, high-quality compounders @gatorcapital — Gator Capital, L/S financials @fin_capital — Findell Capital, L/S small-caps @joshyoung — Bison Capital, Oil/value investing @rgrfan — RF Capital, global equities @SafkhetCapital — Safkhet Capital, concentrated shorts @WorchCapital — Worch Capital, L/S growth-oriented @JeffreyCherkin — Tourlite Capital, L/S equity @PhilTimyan — Independent, community banks @stoic_point — Stoic Point, L/S equity and de-SPACs @JonCukierwar — Sohra Peak, concentrated global equities @LaughingH20Cap — Laughing Water, value-oriented @Seawolfcap and @VD718 — Seawolf Capital, L/S @hkuppy — Praetorian Capital, concentrated special situations @1MainCapital — 1 Main Capital, high-quality growth Christian Putz of ARR Investment Partners, Dan Roller of Maran Capital, value/compounders Theodore Rosenthal of TMR Capital, L/S equity Brain Bellinger of Monimus Capital, L/S equity, Lawrence Creatura of PRSPCTV Capital, small-cap value Connor Haley of Alta Fox Capital, very smart, L/S equity Jamie Sterne of Skye Global, very smart, L/S tech Rob Romero of Connective Capital, L/S equity and tech Michael Melby of Gate City Capital, Microcaps

Who are the top up and coming hedge fund managers / compounders of capital? Looking for the next Bill Ackman or Dan Loeb. List below from our survey with allocators. - Frontlines Fund (fmr Thirdpoint + D1 launch date to be officially announced) - Phoneix (fmr Leucadia + Pershing) - Forrester (unannounced Tiger Global + Elliott fund launch) - Carriage House (fmr H Partners) - Hayden Capital - Eldorado Holdings (fmr Baupost Real Estate Ptnr) - Late Apex - StoneHouse Capital - Tenebrist @GrahamDuncanNYC @SohnConf @dsundheim @BillAckman @ACapitalLP @AndrewRangeley @CliffordSosin @MarkCohen31 @Adam_Wyden @Knightlegcap @stockspinoffss @West4thCapital @TintagelCapital @StockJabber @MikeSimanovsky @BillAckman @DanielSLoeb1

@kboomer_cap Possibly. That's why the key to this investment is either a no-growth or growth scenario in terms of revenues/earnings/KPIs. If the decline continues for another 3 to 5 years, it could very well be a value trap.

@rgrfan could this end up a classic value trap? rev and MAU decline in 2024 vs growing mkt signal mkt share loss. div payout is decent but too low given net cash position. 5-6% div yld but many HK cos >5% div yield with less ? risk. not sure about fraud risk as well wrt cash/inv on BS

RF Capital's May 2025 investor letter is available here: static1.squarespace.com/static/5977308…

@buysidedigest @WalkingInvestor @SaturnaCapital Thanks for including me in the newsletter!

@WalkingInvestor @SaturnaCapital Elevator Pitches: $LNF.CN by Lowell Capital $SAIA by Polen Capital - Global SMID $2660.HK by RF Capital Management @rgrfan

Our weekly newsletter is out! Read it here: tracking.buysidedigest.com/view?msgid=qYr… Subscribe here: buysidedigest.com This week, we highlighted the letters by: 1. Penn Davis McFarland @WalkingInvestor 2. NCG SMID Cap Growth Strategy 3. Saturna Sustainable Funds @SaturnaCapital

This is actually hard to articulate. Investors/allocators have inevitably heard some variant of the pitch you're giving them. So I think it's overrated to be able to define the process down to the minutiae. It's all about execution in the end. The long-term track record will show if you're good or not.