@xiaowang1984 I think true for “mass buildout” but my guess is most utilities will have a transmission level battery in their service territory by end of 2027 and all will by 2030
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Always Blue
130 posts
We don't need to copy California on batteries smdh by mandating expensive solar feed in and then mandating bilateral RA. It's actually an example of what NOT to do. If you want solar ERCOT is a much better example. At least it's the corporates underwater there with the retail load benefiting!
Chris Ross@chrispyross
Let's copy what we can from Norway on EV and heat pump deployment, California on batteries, New Zealand upzoning... Etc. And lots of room for leading. SMR, CCUS experimentation, industrial carbon pricing / CCfD
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🚨 LOGAN PAUL TELLS AMERICANS TO “START SMALL” ON FOX NEWS - WHILE WEARING A $5.3M POKÉMON CARD ON A $75K DIAMOND CHAIN
On Fox Business, Logan Paul talked collectibles investing and encouraged newcomers to “start small,” suggesting local card shops and eBay.
Then the news anchors noticed what was hanging around his neck.
Paul explained:
"This card is the best out of all of them. It is the one of one PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator. "
He revealed the Pokemon card cost $5.3 million, and added:
“I paid $75,000 for this custom chain.”
Explaining the logic, he told viewers:
“Pokémon as an asset class has outperformed the stock market by upwards of 3,000% in the last 20 years.”
“It is a generational game and franchise - the number one highest-grossing and most popular franchise in the world.”
So the visual was unmistakable: investing advice delivered while a diamond-covered Pokémon card hung like a championship belt.
What does “start small” even mean anymore?
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@DrewSmithee Blackrock PNM might as well just take that next step
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$5B for what the best I can tell is a project developer. You're not orders of magnitude away from just buying a medium size utility.
Aniruddh Mohan@aniruddh_mohan
Damn, big tech is now just straight up acquiring power developers to scale up data centers faster Google to acquire Intersect for $4.75B! "The deal includes Intersect’s team and multiple gigawatts of energy and data center projects currently in development or under construction from its existing partnership with Google" Looks like Intersect will continue developing solar + storage and also lead procurement for Google on new nuclear/enhanced geothermal?
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Momentarily got my hopes up when I opened the "promotions" folder to see GE Vernova -- thought they might be discounting some turbines this Black Friday. Alas...
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This topic is such a good litmus test for fundamental understanding of the issues at hand
You’re opinion isn’t wrong because of what ELCC figure you think resources deserve
You’re opinion is wrong for thinking ELCC is a useful planning metric
SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_
PJM Interconnection's newest ELCC ratings are apocalyptic cope. These ELCC (Effective Load Carrying Capacity) figures are derates to show how much help a given energy resource is during the high-load crunch times that they are needed most. For example, because these crunch times are usually in the evening now (when it's DARK), the ELCC of solar is near-zero. But now, PJM has up-rated the ELCC of demand response to 92%. PJM wants us to believe that in 2027/28, demand response, aka asking loads to cut their load in exchange for a cookie, is now a BETTER capacity resource than big batteries, better than fast-start gas turbines, better than every resource except nuclear. What changed? Nothing inherent to demand response. Instead, PJM has landed on demand response as the only option they have for managing new datacenter load growth. Because speeding up interconnection for new generation and transmission assets is too hard, apparently. Instead of fixing their internal processes, ACTUALLY trying new technologies, or telling state regulators to quit whining and get to work, PJM clings to the fantasy that their rickety capacity market can still solve their problems.
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@JesseJenkins Jesse any idea if NREL will be releasing 2025 figures for ATB
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This estimate shows a new AP1000 reactor coming in cheaper than recent offshore wind costs for the Atlantic coast, without moving to the rightmost two (optimistic) columns (and it would deliver more value per MWh). Notable for those in NE and Mid-Atlantic considering future energy options.
Thomas Hochman@ThomasHochman
This continues to be the graph of all graphs for making nuclear happen
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There is a weird, reflexive relationship between utilities and developers
Developers submit speculative apps because they cannot accurately forecast what utilities will quote to connect
Utilities cannot easily quote developers what it will cost to connect because they're inundated with speculative apps
The natural response from utilities is to raise the barriers to entry via higher study fees and stricter standards
But this doesn't actually solve the problem; they're just trying to shift the risk and chaos to other development swimlanes like site control or permitting
Since utilities have no financial incentive to clean up this mess, the solution is to build a modeling system so advanced that it can let the developer forecast their speculative projects as deeply as the utility eventually will to disqualify the worst projects early
Simple thermal heatmaps at substations produced by most software platforms won't cut it, and they are part of the problem
I'm talking full power flow studies with security-constrained redispatch and fully-conditioned base cases
Modeling depth at scale and with speed is the only way to go
Shanu Mathew@ShanuMathew93
US utilities cracking down on "phantom" data centers as developers flood grids with inflated power demand forecasts, often submitting same project to multiple utilities seeking lowest prices. Recently, AEP Ohio cut pending projects 30% and PG&E revised pipeline down 400MW. New tariffs (like AEP OH) require developers pay 85% of stated needs regardless of actual use to prevent ratepayers footing bill for stranded infrastructure. “There’s an ongoing trend of whittling down,” said Julien Dumoulin-Smith, power, utilities and clean energy analyst at Jefferies. “How many projects are real at this point? That’s what I want to know.” The industry needs to prevent “double, triple and quadruple counting”, said Brian Savoy, Duke Energy’s chief financial officer.
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@AlwaysBlueRE This map is our own BasinScout, but you can compile the data from public sources including the EIA. Here are some pipeline shape files and a good starting place: arcgis.com/home/item.html…
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Maybe totally inadvertently, but Meta is positioning their data centers continually at the top of the pipe or ahead of busy meter stations. Latest announcement is off El Paso system ahead of all Cali exports. Hyperion has like 6 long-haul pipe options. Pembina one is at the top of Alliance. Tells a pretty notable story IMO.
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@SlBrandin Would you agree that it’s not more valuable ~close to the point of consumption it’s more of a binary thing due to usage
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These guys understand storage better than 90% of people who develop utility scale storage
Storage is most valuable at the point of consumption
a16z@a16z
“Storage moves energy through time, and the grid moves energy through space.” Base Power co-founder Justin Lopas says when home batteries connect across the grid, they stop acting as backup and start functioning as an intelligent system, turning infrastructure into a network that balances itself. @JLopas @basepowerco
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@TheFrackingGuy Solar in Nevada typically a little more cost effective and helpful than solar in Wisconsin
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We need more generation capacity to meet growing demand! Solar in MISO will have an annual average capacity value of **checks notes** 2.25 percent in 2030.
Craig Lawrence@clawrence
Idiotic move. We are entering an unprecedented trade war w/China. We are going to need to reshore everything from mining to mineral refining to heavy manufacturing. On top of datacenters. We will need all the power we can get. We need a bipartisan agreement to make it easier to build power plants.
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I’m more interested into why Duke / others are honing in on CTs and if others might follow. Does anyone have reading resources to dive into the latest and greatest valuations? @ShanuMathew93 @xiaowang1984 @DrewSmithee @TheFrackingGuy
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As a non-gas expert I have some questions on CT vs CC - from a resource planning perspective it feels like the tradeoffs can be boiled down to:
CC - better $/kW of firm capacity, “base load”
CT - cheaper, worse resource, easier build, better supply chain
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@xiaowang1984 Yes but what if… u just build moar intermittent resources
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Interesting article here. Looks like California is already past the decline point
cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-w…
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@SERobinsonJr I don’t believe the USDA award - everything else makes sense
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xAI NEWS: The EDGE Memphis board has approved the CTC Property LLC, an xAI affiliate, sublease of the 552 acres of Memphis and Shelby County Port Commission property to Seven States Power Corp. for a 100MW solar farm. According to Seven States CEO Betsey McCall, there will be a 100MW Tesla Megapack site as well. It is expected to be completed by 2028.
CTC remains the primary tenant, responsible for payments on a 34-year lease. Seven States will maintain the site, pay rent to CTC, and have an option to purchase the land if CTC does not. CTC will also build a paved road to the site.
The project is funded by a $439 million USDA Empowering Rural America program award and requires USDA environmental clearance.
The original 21-year lease, approved in October 2024, includes no rent for the first year, then $1,654,961 annually with 2.5% increases, and an option for CTC to buy the property for $23,642,293 in 2045.
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@TheFrackingGuy What would be your recommended offshore wind ELCC
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Of course Tyler is omitting the fact that wind and solar routinely underperform their ELCCs because they’re not dispatchable and PJMs high accreditation for wind is likely due to the fact that there isn’t much on that system so the next incremental MW is decent in terms of capacity but this falls sharply as more wind is added to the system.
Tyler Norris@tylerhnorris
To justify its offshore wind policy, Trump admin officials have claimed the resource provides no capacity value — but this is obviously false for anyone remotely familiar with the capacity market. Even PJM rates offshore wind at nearly 70% ELCC (meaning for every installed MW, PJM assigns it 0.7 MW of capacity value) — *higher than gas CTs*
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This is probably significantly more meaningful than the renewable penetration correlation honestly
Although I'd think these policies also lead to more aggressive than average thermal phase outs (like of coal).
Nick Morley@nlmorley
@TomMoyerUT @grok There you go. Interestingly the correlation doesn’t really kick in until the policy index gets to 30, but from there it ramps up hard. Like a little bit of regulation is fine but there’s a pain threshold after which you suddenly start to make things more expensive.
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@ShanuMathew93 @energy_said Do they have a full article on this?
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.@energy_said compiled ELCCs across various studies across gen types.
ELCC (Effective Load Carrying Capacity) measures how much a power source contributes during grid stress, as % of nameplate capacity. Nuclear & gas have highest ELCCs; wind/solar lower. Critical for capacity payments & grid planning. Demand response surprisingly shows high ELCCs.
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@gnievchenko Had a discussion with a hydrogen group that all-in turned a profit from just flipping their land at the end
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