Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
1.7K posts
@AmbrogioCB
Economist at Bank of England. CEPR fellow. Guest lecturer at LSE. Associate editor at EER. Views are my own. When not here, I'm often here https://t.co/MhEmbvOkhz
DSGE Model Forecast: March 2026 Compared to the December 2025 forecast, growth in 2026 is expected to be more robust and inflation more persistent. nyfed.org/4bKgIxs #AMEC
South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung has nominated Shin Hyun Song, head of the monetary and economic department at the Bank for International Settlements, as the new Bank of Korea governor, the Presidential Office said Sunday bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Hélène Rey, Professor of Economics at @LBS, is appointed as Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, replacing Hyun Song Shin, from 1 September 2026 bit.ly/4skt7zc
When thinking about the effect of the energy shock, worth recalling @ben_moll and co's great paper on the 2022 shock. Predictions then were of a much more severe German recession. It never came to pass because production isn't as rigid as simple models assume. Even tiny substitution elasticities dramatically reduce output losses.
Industrial policies (IPs) are rarely connected to global imbalances. Yet, IPs are a key feature of many surplus countries. This new paper tackles three questions: Can IPs shape global imbalances? What are the spillovers to deficit countries? What policy responses are available?
The 🇪🇺 is the only region whose share in 🇨🇳 exports has risen at the same time as its share in 🇨🇳 imports has dropped. Others export inputs, commodities or critical minerals that 🇨🇳 has been hungry for. The 🇪🇺 is at the epicentre of the 🇨🇳 shock and no one is coming to help.
I am very happy to announce that Thomas Drechsel @td_econ will be joining @JohnsHopkins econ! A fantastic hire that further strengthens our department. Thomas has a very broad research agenda, spanning Monetary Economics, International Macro, HANK,... Welcome to JHU Thomas!
Happy to share new administrative data and code with the public (joint work with @VBPeral and @JADHazell ) It allows people to estimate y*: the expected long-term housing yield in real-time going forward y* equals r*, expected long-term yield on safe assets, plus long-run housing risk premium minus capital gains It is thus a natural object of interest for policy makers such as central banks, and nerdy academics like us Long-run objects like y* are notoriously difficult to measure, but we take advantage of a quirky feature of UK housing market: Every month, over a thousand apartments get the duration of their lease extended from 70 years to about 160 on average We build (and make public) an administrative data set that records market values of such apartment leases before and after extension from the year 2000 till today - and continue to update incoming data on our website We develop a methodology that uses thousands of these "natural experiments" in real-time to estimate y* from the gain in market-value due to lease maturity extension Intuitively, the larger the market gain from extension, the lower is the implied y* - see our paper for details The figure below shows the main result: y* was stable between 2000-2007, but started falling at the onset of the 2008 Great Recession The fall is remarkable in magnitude. About 2 percentage points from 2008 to end of 2023 This implies close to doubling of asset valuations! We believe the 2pp decline largely reflects the decline in long-term expected r* Interestingly, the recent rise in interest rates has not moved y* up yet - we'll see if rates come down, or y* moves up - This is the significant "duration risk" that global economy faces today A useful feature of the data we are making public is that it is updated every month in real-time, from new lease extensions and their market transactions Thus anyone can update our y* estimates in real-time - the full code is online as well Please read the working paper behind this effort, and we hope people find the data useful! sites.google.com/view/ystar-dyn…
