Andris Banka

📘Pleased to share the publication of my new book. This open-access manuscript examines the past, present, and future of US-Baltic security alliance. @Palgrave link.springer.com/book/10.1007/9…

According to a Facebook post by Péter Magyar, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has already called him to concede and congratulate him on victory. At the same time, with 53.45 percent of votes counted, the numbers are pointing in the same direction. Tisza is now projected to win 136 seats, just over the two-thirds threshold in the 199-member parliament. Fidesz is holding at around 45 list seats, with Tisza on 41 and Mi Hazánk Mozgalom on 7. In the constituencies, Tisza is still dominating, with 95 projected wins to just 11 for Fidesz. If these numbers hold, it would give Tisza a narrow but decisive constitutional supermajority.

A new survey indicates that Finns favor increased cooperation with Nordic and Baltic countries in foreign policy: eva.fi/blog/2026/04/0…

There are always receipts.

Rzeczpospolita is reporting that the US has informally asked Poland to consider sending one of its two Patriot batteries to the Middle East, along with PAC-3 interceptor missiles already delivered and owned by the Polish military. Poland spent years and billions acquiring this capability. It only reached full operational readiness at the end of 2025. The wider problem is production. Lockheed Martin made around 600 PAC-3 missiles last year. The first 16 days of the Iran conflict consumed 1,500. Deliveries of weapons Poland has already contracted and paid for will almost certainly be delayed. Under Foreign Military Sales rules, there are no penalty clauses. radar.rp.pl/przemysl-obron…

"The report laid out in tantalizing detail how they had shuttled back and forth between the United States and Greenland, compiled lists of pro-American Greenlanders, and tried to stoke a Greenlandic secessionist movement. nytimes.com/2026/03/30/wor…

(1) Good (if true) and (2) could have been achieved without the threats and bullying, that have cost the US much for no good reason.

A flying object that crashed in Lithuania early on Monday was a stray Ukrainian drone intended for strikes in Russia, the country’s prime minister said bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Can a diverse group of countries with distinct military doctrines, cultures, and languages operate effectively under a common flag? In a book chapter published by @BrisUniPress, I explore this question with a focus on NATO’s (eFP) missions: bristoluniversitypressdigital.com/edcollchap/boo…

Army general guzzled so much brandy in Kiev that he showed up literally falling-down drunk for a U.S. embassy meeting with the Secretary of State in 2024, investigation finds. And he left military secrets on a train. Via @HopeSeck militarytimes.com/news/your-mili…

Instant classic

New paper in Small Wars & Insurgencies: “Kaliningrad: the strategic challenge for NATO’s eastern flank and German–Polish perspectives.” Written with Gustav C. Gressel & Zdzisław Śliwa. Many thanks to Oleh Skrynyk for helping to design the map tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

NEW: Pentagon deploying 2,500 Marines to the Middle East according to the Wall Street Journal.

"A big psychological block for some European intelligence services was that they believed Putin to be a largely rational actor, and were deeply sceptical that he would embark on a plan they felt was likely to fail." A fascinating piece by @shaunwalker7 theguardian.com/world/ng-inter…

NEW: A major pullback of U.S. troops from European soil is unlikely in the near future. Since the start of the year, the U.S. has told allies any withdrawal would be very limited, govt officials from 7 European countries said. w/@paulmcleary @JackDetsch pro.politico.eu/news/212852

Annual Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service @valisluure assessment, among other things, details how, behind the veil of academic collaboration, Russian intelligence is trying to gain a foothold in the Baltic–Scandinavian region: valisluureamet.ee/doc/raport/202…

Poland used to be the most viscerally pro-American country in Europe, perhaps only second to Kosovo. But it’s nobody’s colony, and this kind of language will not be forgotten. The “outrageous” insult of Poland’s parliament speaker Czarzasty was refusing to co-sponsor the nomination of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize — and saying that Trump didn’t deserve it.

Meet Estonian Defence Forces Major Kersti Vennik, PhD — a military geographer and expert on how soils behave under military vehicles. She teaches our allies how not to get stuck in Estonia’s marshes and advises EDF on how to make sure the Russians will get stuck. 🇪🇪✌️

NEW: A diplomatic controversy has erupted in Copenhagen after the U.S. Embassy removed 44 Danish flags honoring the 44 Danish soldiers killed during the war in Afghanistan. The flags were placed by Danish veterans in flower boxes on a public road outside the U.S. Embassy, shortly after Donald Trump criticized allied forces’ contributions in Afghanistan during a Fox News interview. In a written response to Danish broadcaster TV 2, the U.S. Embassy said the flags were removed because they were not installed by embassy staff nor formally coordinated, adding that it is standard practice to remove unauthorized objects and that there was no malicious intent. However, Danish media report that embassy security staff were aware of the flags and initially approved their placement, raising questions about the embassy’s explanation. The removal has triggered strong political backlash across party lines in Denmark. Multiple lawmakers have called the action disrespectful, “indecent,” and “insensitive,” noting that Denmark fought alongside the U.S. in Afghanistan and suffered one of the highest per-capita casualty rates among coalition partners. Copenhagen officials are now examining whether the embassy had the legal right to remove the flags from a public roadway. A demonstration and five-minute silence in honor of the fallen Danish soldiers is planned outside the embassy this weekend.

@McNamara_Eoin Much appreciated. A number of those stories came together directly from the insights you shared.

Just finished reading masterfully detailed & lucid new book from @AndrisBanka on #transatlantic relations & the #security of the #Baltic states🇪🇪 🇱🇻🇱🇹 since 1991. Meticulously researched & argued covering key insights underexplored in previous literature. link.springer.com/book/10.1007/9…