Andromeda Report

Flash Crash: The Day Apple Soared To $100,000 On May 6th, 2010, Apple shares soared to $100,000 while Accenture went from $40 to 1 cent. For five minutes, markets stopped making sense entirely. A bedroom trader in Hounslow had something to do with it. Full note in comments

Morning Call: * S&P futures unch * Oil -0.7% (+ve) * Gold +0.5% (+ve) * US 10yr -1bp (+ve) * Bitcoin -0.1% (-ve) Little market reaction so far from the US blockade over the Strait which started yesterday. Interesting to note is the Brent-WTI spread widening again to $3, while the US benefits from being an oil exporter.

Morning Call: * S&P futures -0.7% (-ve) * Oil +8.5% (-ve) * Gold -0.4% (-ve) * US 10yr +3bp (-ve) * Bitcoin +0.4% (+ve) US/Iran meeting ended with no progress. If anything, outcome is negative. Expect Oil to remain elevated (>$100/barrel) and the S&P 500 to resume its leg downward to 6,200.

Andromeda Weekly Wrap — 11th April The week belonged to the US/Iran ceasefire. Equities rallied, while Oil collapsed 22% in a single session. All eyes now on Islamabad, where JD Vance meets the Iranian regime this weekend. The agenda: the Strait, 900 lbs of enriched uranium, Iran's enrichment capacity, and militia support. A ceasefire extension is the best case. Weekly moves: 📈 S&P +3.7% — we stay cautious. Expect the sell-off to resume, targeting 6,200. All-time highs would be the trigger. 🛢️ Oil -15% — Brent/WTI spread collapsed to $1.7. WTI lifted by US exports to Asia; Brent pressured by Strait reopening hopes. 🥇 Gold +2.9% — biggest single-day move came on the ceasefire announcement. 🇺🇸 US 10y -4bps — Strait optimism doing the work. ₿ Bitcoin +4.8% to ~$73k — still range-bound since February. We expect a downside break: $61k first, then $52k.

US CPI Data (Mar): *MoM +0.9% vs +0.9% exp (+0.3% previous) *Core MoM +0.2% vs +0.3% exp (+0.2% previous) While CPI came in a touch softer than expected and markets took some relief from it, there is still large uncertainty over how long Oil prices will remain high. Given recent events, we expect the war to drag on and are looking at a higher pass-through in the next prints.

@nicrypto With inflation picking up and 2 hikes priced in by year-end, we expect 10y yields to reach 3%.

Wild. Japanese government bond yields still aren't stopping their surge. The 10yr yield is now at it's highest level in 27 years.

@chigrl With no end in sight to the war, expect gas and Oil ($100+) prices to remain elevated.

⚠️

@MarioNawfal @Tesla The interesting thing about Tesla's valuation is that only 12% of its market cap comes from making cars. The rest comes from Robotaxi, Optimus and Full Self Driving subscriptions - all which are in early stages and aren't yet generating meaningful revenues.

2018. “Sell Tesla. Competition is coming.” When? Where? Did I miss it? 2026. Tesla didn’t pause. Didn’t flinch. Just kept shipping. That headline didn’t age well. Lol. @Tesla

Morning Call: * S&P futures -0.1% * Oil +0.8% * Gold -0.4% * US 10yr +1bp * Bitcoin +0.2% While the S&P 500 is now only 2.5% away from its all time highs, Oil is also pushing higher back towards the $100 mark. We remain cautious of any positive headlines around US/Iran deals and expect further risk off ahead.

Morning Call: * S&P futures -0.1% * Oil +1.1% * Gold -0.1% * US 10yr unch * Bitcoin -0.2% Markets are opening soft after what looks like a premature relief rally. Israel has continued to strike Lebanon, both the US and Iran are declaring victory, all the meanwhile the strait of Hormuz remains disputed and passage restricted. Expect Oil to remain high and risk assets to grind lower. Would sell the recent bounce.

@Fongern_FX Exactly - he's doing the only thing he ever does when he's wrong - backs out. Leaving all the damage in place. Expect $100 oil for a long time, and markets to continue crashing.

What a farce! A closed Strait of Hormuz is now an acceptable outcome? WSJ reports Trump wants out. Hormuz closed. Oil spiking. Allies furious. Bond market revolting. Trump: "maybe we're done here." The strategic literature calls this "losing."

Morning Call: * S&P futures +0.7% (+ve) * Oil -1.7% (+ve) * Gold +0.9% (+ve) * US 10yr -2bps (+ve) * Bitcoin +0.7% (+ve) Positive start to the day across the board. However... it does seem to be jawbone driven by US statements again. Expect retrace lower as usual.

Morning Call: * S&P futures +0.5% * Oil +0.7% * Gold +0.8% * US 10yr -3bps * Bitcoin +2% Surprising bounce after Trump overnight said he could take Kharg Island, but simultaneously a deal is close. Sounds like Trump buying time before land invasion. Sell the bounce.

Weekly Wrap-Up: * S&P futures closed 2.75% lower, despite a Monday Trump pump tweet causing an immediate 2.5% spike, which was later sold into. We are quickly approaching our target of 6,200 and would go flat there. The move recently has been too too quick, too soon. Look for a bounce, then re-enter short on strength. * Slightly more convoluted for Oil. WTI closes 3% higher at $101, while Brent outperformed to decline 5%. This brought the Brent-WTI spread down 63% from $14 to $5. Would watch out for WTI breaking sustainably above $100 as the key driver of any future upside to the oil market. * Gold closes flat WoW, despite a 7% road trip lower at the start. Silver was similar with a 9% move. Looking the tape throughout the week, it does appear the FX-liability driven selling has abated and absent of a one-day shock, Gold is likely to stabilise here and head back up. * Bitcoin held up surprisingly well, only down 2.5%, although this is most likely a result of a large short squeeze on Trump’s Monday tweet (+4%). Spot-Futures basis is negative, which implies further downside. Targeting 61k, then 52k. Overall - expect a touch of further weakness early next week - then gossip of a breakthrough leading to a fake multi-day/couple weeks bounce. Would take advantage of this to sell risk-assets.