AndyG
1.1K posts
So many more great names here:
$CORZ
$CRWV
$RIOT
$WULF
$INOD
$NBIS
Too many to count
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Data centers
The whole sector is starting to breakout of massive weekly bases
When every single stock in a sector is setup....
The moves that follow are incredibly explosive
$CIFR
$HUT
$IREN
$APLD
All setup for multi weeks moves.
Sean trades@SRxTrades
Data centers Big weekly breakouts on many of these so far They are all setting back up in high tight flags for higher $CIFR $HUT $WULF $CRWV Keep an eye on these setups.
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so for my birthday instead of getting a gift, i'm giving one
have to be following - like & re post this
going to give 1 person $200 (cash app only)
3 people 1 free month in the group
if post does well enough maybe open some limited discount spots in the group
and happy mothers day to all the mothers out there!
Taylor@TLAMB91
Who has my notis on? I’d turn them on in case I do a give away this weekend
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Wouldn’t be surprised if these turn green by the end of the day…
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AndyG retweetledi
Game theory pretty much proves that the long game is not a strategy most people can execute at all. That's because it tends to require a negative short-term position in exchange for a real advantage later. Most people cannot commit to this because their threat-detection system reads current loss as an existential failure. And that's vicious short-sightedness. It leads them to optimize for visible progress and sacrifice their real position. The people who constantly win rarely have better information. Instead, they accept that losing now will pay off later. Never quit a game before it starts.
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So crazy walking around Palo Alto and nobody knows I’m Bubble Boi.
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Why is the U.S. exporting record levels of oil if I’m still paying 50% more at the pumps?
Make it make sense.
Hedgeye@Hedgeye
🇺🇸 U.S. oil exports hit a record 6.4 million barrels per day
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@aleabitoreddit So how long does these orders on IKRB take to fill… Mcoss taken forever
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Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts:
Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE.
So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them).
Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally.
Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP +
assembly for higher margins anyway.
Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
Mikael Wåhlin@Plaskpojken
Just remembered something that we dug up a couple of years ago, and it solidifies our firm belief that Sivers ( $SIVE / $SIVEF ) already has a direct connection to Celestial AI. 🚨 While retail algos panic-sold the Marvell/POET cancellation thinking the bridge was burned, smart money knows how to follow the financial footprints. Let’s look at a Sivers corporate presentation from a while back. They listed their anonymous "Optical I/O" clients (Customer B, C, and D) alongside Ayar Labs, and dropped a highly specific clue: These anonymous clients raised a combined $250 million in 2023. Now, let's look at the major Silicon Photonics networking companies that raised capital in 2023: ▪️ Lightmatter: Raised $154 million (Dec 2023). ▪️ Celestial AI: Raised $100 million (Jun 2023). $154M + $100M = $254 million. The math perfectly matches the Sivers slide. What does this mean? It proves that Sivers wasn't just blindly supplying lasers through a middleman. According to their own presentation, Celestial AI (now Marvell) and Lightmatter are their direct customers. When Marvell fires a packaging partner for breaching an NDA, the need for the physical light engine doesn't vanish. The technical "co-design" relationship between the system architect (Celestial AI) and the foundational laser foundry ($SIVE) was already established years ago. Algorithms trade headlines. Fundamental investors trade the supply chain reality. ⏳🔥 $SIVE $SIVEF #DeepTech #SiliconPhotonics #AI
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@bubbleboi @Bloomberg Anyone got the link to the video/recoridng?
I’m a regular EE trying to make millions
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Will be going on @Bloomberg news at 7:00 PM EST to talk about Semis, Intel, and how regular electrical engineers are making millions in this bull market.
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@Ren_aramb How are you approaching $NVTS?
Curious how to approach the entire 800V system
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Serenity makes an excellent point here.
From this post alone you can count 10 different themes that are now considered bottlenecks and will likely print.
If everything is a bottleneck, just make sure you’re positioned accordingly across these themes and let them compound.
Rotating will probably mean less upside unless you have perfect timing.
I’m only playing with 25% of my portfolio to rotate into new names – the rest is set.
My core holdings (75% of portfolio):
Photonics – $MRVL $SIVE $AAOI $TSM $AEHR $IQE
Memory – $MU $SNDK SK Hynix
CPUs – $ARM $INTC $AMD
Foundry – Win Semi
This week I’ve added new names in my long bucket.
Time will tell if they become core holdings and earn a higher allocation:
$POET $LPKF $M7U $NVTS $PDFS
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
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It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some:
Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start).
Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle:
-> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first
I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y)
-> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable)
-> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now)
-> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years.
Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything.
But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different.
For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML.
There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things.
But you're extremely early to new architecture generations.
What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free.
Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
Rabbit@rabbitrun97o
@aleabitoreddit Missed the opportunity to make money by investing in photonics. Do you think there is 50% upside from here?
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Can someone explain to me why anyone wouldn’t buy this $NOW dip?
Remember what Warren Buffet said guys…
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$IONQ - want to know when to long drawdown names?
look for these signs:
- accumulation volume 3-4x higher than distribution, sustained for multiple days
- reclaim of ATH VWAP and 200-day SMA with strong volume
this is where buyers step in and started positioning.
Venu@Venu_7_
you know the bull market is back when $IONQ is printing back-to-back +20% candles on 3x volume. one of the best momentum Indicator!
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@aleabitoreddit @wallstengine If this does go through - what are your thoughts on IONQ becoming a more vertically integrated player with a steady 500-600m revenue stream?
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@wallstengine I would not want to hold $20 in $IONQ as a $SKYT shareholder. Can't believe they're getting bought
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WSJ: $IONQ is buying SkyWater Technology $SKYT for about $1.8B, or $35/share.
SkyWater holders get $15 in cash and $20 in IonQ stock, with a collar on the stock portion.
IonQ says this deal will create a more vertically integrated quantum platform.
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@JojoBzzre77 @hypergrowth102 How do you get into something like that - and if you do I’m a customer.
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@hypergrowth102 I may be able to get that but I need some time. Current in process of taking a compounding job. Peptides there would be a killing once it’s approved. Can’t wait.
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@Maximus_Holla How are you playing this one?
Whats the strategy here Hosor
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$VTGN still trading way below cash!
HODOR@Maximus_Holla
$VTGN double average vol today! still holding as a run up!
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@aleabitoreddit Safe to say your entry/DCA price is the most important factor ?
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This crash today is a good reason why it's good to stay invested.
-> $AAOI is still up 233%?
-> $IQE is still up ~100%?
-> $SIVE is still up 100%+?
-> $LITE is still up ~88%?
-> $TSEM is up ~48%?
-> $SOI is still up 36%?
Even after today my $AXTI positions are still up ~680% after the drop today?
Yes, red days look rough if something drops 13% or 20% and especially so if you're later to enter.
But if you keep thinking it's going to:
-> drop from $500m and sit out
-> drop from $1b and sit out
-> drop from $2b and sit out
-> drop from $3b and sit out
By the time it's $4B and there's finally a correction 15%, you missed out on the entire rise.
People can say "hindsight bias, you're posting after it went up". No, I've posted these are the returns after my original thesis, and I'm just riding the wave up.
I keep getting trolls like these in my comments sections, but hope it doesn't make others panic.
Not everything moves in a green line up, same applies to other sectors and stocks if there’s no material change.
Risk exists. And portfolio sizing is very important.
But if you’re going to enter higher beta names in bottlenecks especially with a clear thesis in mind.
Need to learn to embrace the volatility for your thesis to play out.
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