Andy Timm

2.3K posts

Andy Timm banner
Andy Timm

Andy Timm

@Andy_Timm

Data scientist @ Grow Progress, testing Dem ads. Usually thinking about methods for survey weighting, efficient causal inference, or scalable Bayes.

New York, NY Katılım Nisan 2011
737 Takip Edilen565 Takipçiler
Maria Langholz
Maria Langholz@MariaLangholz·
brb, cleansing my brain with Haaland clips
English
1
0
2
92
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
Oh wow, Goldman might lose the Manhattan. RIP Bozo
Andy Timm tweet mediaAndy Timm tweet media
English
0
0
1
46
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
@TheZvi Beyond “it’s a strong coding model”: 1. No native vision is a weird choice 2. It’s competencies are more uneven compared to Claudes/GPT. This matters even within code- e.g. “iterate with me on ideas for this feature” is a conversation implicitly; it’s weak(er) at conversations.
English
0
0
6
967
Zvi Mowshowitz
Zvi Mowshowitz@TheZvi·
I've gotten a claim this is indeed anything, so: GLM-5.2 reaction thread. What's cooking?
English
22
3
128
34.5K
sam
sam@sam_d_1995·
@LinkofSunshine dawg they just passed the two person train mandate AGAIN after Hochul vetoed it last session. and it has been edited to explicitly prevent any sort of automation on the IBX the only dem who voted against this slop is the GOAT @agounardes
sam tweet media
English
12
20
541
91.8K
Basil🧡
Basil🧡@LinkofSunshine·
One of the most insane policies I’ve ever seen passed. It’s insane they just keep passing dumb bills they don’t read and trusting Hochul to do all the work for them
Bill Hammond@NYHammond

The bill had previously passed the Senate 57-2. The tally in the Assembly was 133-0. The only thing potentially standing in the way of adding $10.18 to the cost of each prescription is Governor Hochul and her veto pen. empirecenter.org/publications/l…

English
11
45
1.4K
88.7K
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
@tenobrus Yeah beyond Claude smell/lack of details in the writing, there’s a bunch of weird shit in the benchmarks shown thus far too
English
0
0
3
79
Tenobrus
Tenobrus@tenobrus·
they fucking AI generated their nearly totally contentless "technical blogpost" LMAO yeah this is total bullshit
Tenobrus@tenobrus

@alex_whedon sure i have a question. why does your technical blog post never actually describe *how the fuck SSA works*, and why is it 100% ai generated?

English
2
0
42
3.3K
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
@sean_t_strong @emollick Is there any intent to allow users to choose thinking themselves again at some point? This feature makes Opus 4.7 essentially a CC only model to me now. Needing to learn how to coax the model to allow me to use a basic feature OpenAI/4.6 have is a pretty bad user experience.
English
0
0
15
618
Sean Strong
Sean Strong@sean_t_strong·
Hey Ethan! Sean here, PM on Claude.ai - thanks for the feedback. This isn't a router, this is the model being trained to decide when to think based on the context -- we've been running this for a while in Sonnet 4.6 in Claude.ai as well as Claude Code. Understood that it's not tuned perfectly in claude.ai yet - we're sprinting on tuning this more internally and should have some updates here shortly. Feel free to DM us examples of queries where you expected thinking and didn't see it
English
38
7
130
37K
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
@emollick Fixing the router, or fixing the requirement to use the router?
English
0
0
1
293
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
@tyler_m_john I made one of these myself a few Claudes ago. I haven’t bothered to upkeep it because this is such a moving target. I have a lot of sympathy for this type of concern though- jagged capabilities/stochasticity/path dependence make for very strange experiences sometimes!
English
1
0
1
112
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
@Miles_Brundage I’m surprised they have the infra to serve that scale of KitKat
English
0
0
2
216
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
Thanks to the lovely r-universe project, I’ve been able to provide pre-compiled bindings for most platforms, easing installation. None of this would be possible without Adrian Seybolt/PyMC’s great nutpie/nuts-rs project— thanks for the great sampler. github.com/andytimm/nutpi…
English
0
0
0
80
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
Nutpie is ~2x faster on average than the base Stan sampler on tasks in posteriorDB, though I’ve found that’s more like 5x for my more heavily used, more complex models. Bob Carpenter has a great introductory blog post/paper with some PyMC folks: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/20/nut…
English
1
0
0
94
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
Bayesian friends- if you’re curious to try out the blazingly fast nutpie sampler in R, I just put together a pretty lightweight package that’ll compile your existing Stan models!
English
1
0
0
114
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
@GarrisonLovely This seems obviously too strong/overconfident? Or do you just mean no (current) solution?
English
0
0
2
57
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
New R package release day, woo :) Regularized raking makes it easier to build complex survey weights that reduce bias without paying as heavy a high variance price. regrake makes building these weights convenient in R. Check it out!
English
1
0
1
93
Lisan al Gaib
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01·
@Andy_Timm my god, im literally using the official Alibaba endpoint no way they don't have it running correctly
English
1
0
1
153
Lisan al Gaib
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01·
Reran Qwen3.5 122B A10B for LisanBench it still shows the same behavior of returning reasoning when it should return the list the model might honestly be cooked
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01

The big China update for LisanBench! Let's make this sweet and short, with some emojis, so you know which scores made me happy. # 9 Step 3.5 Flash !! # 14 Kimi-K2.5 Thinking :/ # 18 Seed 2.0 Pro :) # 24 Seed 1.8 :) # 25 GLM-5 :( # 26 Seed 2.0 Lite :) # 27 Minimax M2.5 :/ # 32 Seed 2.0 Mini :) not serious results - have to rerun although the 397B results looked fine: # 21 Qwen3.5 397B A17B :) # 40 Qwen3.5 35B A3B :/ (few buggy responses) # 44 Qwen3.5 122B A10B :( (lots of buggy responses) (all with thinking, and tested with official providers. checked all the responses for errors!) - Step 3.5 with a very impressive score. It uses an insane amount of tokens, but the validity ratio and the score honestly speaks for itself. It makes use of these tokens. Similar to DeepSeek-V3.2 Speciale. Look at the far right of the plot. - Kimi-K2.5 has basically the same score as K2. I can't say exactly how much more efficient it is, because I couldn't get K2 Thinking to run again. But I remember K2 taking around 40k token for each response. So we might be talking about 2x more efficient reasoning! - Seed 2.0 Pro was impressive especially in terms of reasoning efficiency - Qwen3.5 397B A17B outperforms GLM-5 and Minimax M2.5 which is good, but also uses more tokens. - Qwen3.5 35B A3B is okay, still below GPT-OSS-20B. Had a couple of responses where it included the reasoning, which makes the score 0 for that word. - Qwen3.5 122B A10B was bugged. It was returning the reasoning for like half of all responses. Should score much higher without buggy responses. - GLM-5 was somewhat disappointing. I thought it would get on a level with Kimi-K2.5. But I checked all responses manually, no faulty responses like the smaller Qwen3.5 models. - MiniMax M2.5 score is fine, but nothing crazy. GPT-OSS-120B kinda mogs it. Minimax also had issues with the output format. It responded with the list of words, but after like 100 words it would go back to reasoning or changing the format. - Seed 1.8, 2.0 Lite and Mini perform all well for their price and are all super token efficient. Usually all models should start their raw response with the starting word that was given to them. Like everything below 97% on this chart is kinda sus. So Qwen3.5 122B A10B was clearly bugged and it seems like Llama3.1 8B was too (not gonna rerun llama tho)

English
4
0
25
4.8K
Andy Timm retweetledi
Dean W. Ball
Dean W. Ball@deanwball·
I don’t understand why this is so hard for people. Of course for some it actually isn’t and they are just defending “whatever my side does” for all the typical stupid reasons. I am a little disappointed to see who has now fallen into the idiot trap, however.
roon@tszzl

@QuasLacrimas you can’t conflate “the USA gets to decide” with “the pentagon can unilaterally nuke your company”

English
10
13
438
28.9K
Andy Timm
Andy Timm@Andy_Timm·
@PEWilliams_ Yeah, this just feels like OpenAI parroting the DoW attempt to move the debate to favorable rhetorical grounds. If you can’t refuse terms without the government attempting to destroy you, we are not a liberal democracy. Period.
English
0
0
1
84
Paul E Williams
Paul E Williams@PEWilliams_·
“it’s not up to me to decide the terms of a contract I am a party to if the counterparty is the government” is an idea that seems to have come out of nowhere, and is dominating this discourse. It makes zero sense. It is up to you! That is the purpose of the free market!
Paul E Williams tweet media
English
11
22
239
8.2K