Kenny Lofton 🤺

The Patriots from 2001-2019: #1 in points per game #1 in points per drive #1 in epa/play #1 in epa/pass play #1 in dvoa pass offense

@SpecialPuppy1 @reinhardNFL I think trading down within the same draft can be seen as synonymous with a slow burn. It's developmental

@AnthonyWebster_ @reinhardNFL That explains why they’re not trading current picks for future picks more. That doesn’t explain why they aren’t trading down into the 20-70 range more

The nerds have lost the battle for draft capital trade valuation. Teams really are not moving any closer to the outcome-based style of trade charts that analytics/cap experts have published in the last few years, and I’m not sure there has been enough introspection as to why

@reinhardNFL Yeah, probably. Although in a win for the nerds, i picture the ravens analytic staff going Milton from office space mode threatening to burn the building to ground if they didn't cancel the crosby trade

@AnthonyWebster_ This is true, but I think this explanation lets us all off the hook too easily. I think it’s more complex than just GMs being short sighted

@DanBFox1287 Nathan for You idea: Make your lineup so mid without firepower that anyone can get hurt and it won't matter

Overshadowed by the departures of Devers and Bregman is the fact that Abraham Toro was hitting third for this team for a pretty significant portion of the season. This years lineup may not have the top-end talent of last year, but they are deeper and built to withstand injuries

His mannerisms running to the ez to headbutt his teammates is the exact same lol

@redsoxstats Everyone is saying protect Suarez and limit him, but man riding Crochet on another 200 ip season seems crazy

Crochet is going to be happy to flush this spring. Has struck out 7 of 51 batters, last spring it was 30 of 66.

Pats brass discussing Olave be like

You are basically accepting that he is on the downward slope of the bell curve, but that the curve was very tall to begin with. So

@maxtoscano1 @TrueBlueBYU1984 @savanah2j You think steak and eggs is *not* clean and healthy?

@TrueBlueBYU1984 @savanah2j I've eaten indulgently and been fat and eaten cleanly and been fit. One of them is far more enjoyable.

steak, eggs, and homemade sourdough

@maxtoscano1 @savanah2j This is danger zone tweet for an unfollow

@savanah2j This is crazy lmao 2 proteins with high cholesterol and a white bread you’re gonna DIE

@HatinAssBrian Pats are just copying the rams and seahawks, but not in the way fans imagined lol

When the physicality of your TEs isn’t respected by opposing defenses, the only way to force them into base personnel is with FBs and 6OL packages. Unfortunately, that’s the been situation here for a while.

@ropese34 @KeaganStiefel @mattuurban You can write it down, take it to the bank, and come back here after the draft

@AnthonyWebster_ @KeaganStiefel @mattuurban Please you’re telegraphing your needs going inans during the draft.

The #Patriots’ inability to make upgrades at pass-rusher has been equally infuriating as it has been confusing. It’s now officially draft season, so the early plan is:

@KeaganStiefel @mattuurban Seems like a surefire lock a top 63 pick will be at edge

@AnthonyWebster_ @mattuurban I’m not upset they allocated to offense, I’m upset that they didn’t account for the lack of depth on the edge and actively took from it. Anfernee Jennings didn’t need to be cut.

@KeaganStiefel @mattuurban Being upset they rightfully allocated to offense is just crazy

@mattuurban EDGE is the topic because it’s the spot they got worse at. If you make one hole trying to plug another, it’s pointless.

@redsoxstats Godbout?

It will be interesting to hear reports on position player prospects coming out of minor league camp, as interesting as the pitchers are, the flip side could be bleak.

Absolutely crushing the ball this spring. Also has a 39% whiff rate and 41% strikeout rate, but has never really had those issues before. Have heard he wasn’t buying what Sox were selling after his trade here, but no excuse for miserable trade.

@PFF_Moo So basically, statisticians mean it when they say *approximately* normal

Basically the point is that on every possession, scoring points drawing from (0,1,2,3) with some likelihoods and when you add that up for a lot of possessions, the central limit theorem suggests that points in a game tends to be normal and in practice that's not totally wrong. However, this assumes independence and in most games, while independence is obviously never given, it's close enough that it somewhat works in practice. However, it's clear that you don't get to 80+ points when assuming independence. That's because 10^-17 just doesn't happen in practice with the sample of 1300 games per year. You can only get to that if the game flows a certain way which completely overthrows the independence and thus the idea that it could be normal. Even if someone looks perfectly normal from given observations doesn't mean that one can just extrapolate multiple sigmas out of the usually observed scope.

he didn't break math, people just apply math terribly wrong

@PFF_Moo Yeah the tails don't match because possessions are more constrained for nfl. An nba player can go way further right with usage

also nfl passing yards are also pretty normally distributed around the average (for starting QBs). It's always the tail events that do not fit that anymore and it's fine to say that giving a good approximate for these is pretty much impossible, because there is a unpredictable human element at play like inventives that develop through a game.

@oinwards I think the earlier picks will be more valuable on the mere fact there's like 5+ qbs, which pushes the best non qbs further down. But that kinda runs outa gas and normalizes at some point

@AnthonyWebster_ Famously the next draft class is always better than this one. Always, things never change in that year

Alright it's time to fade this. I'm sure the top ~15 picks are more valuable, more qbs & top end talent. Can we surely say like pick 24 is +EV? If I'm Wolf, cry to Howie for 3 months about how great 2027 is. Posture the hell out of it. In june the offer is 2027 1st, nothing more