Seth Antiles
4.6K posts
Seth Antiles
@AntilesSeth
Global Macro Investor, PhD in Economics and Int’l Politics. Generated billions on Macro bets on stocks, credit, rates, and fx for global financial institutions
Katılım Eylül 2021
630 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
Absolute bombshell. Christiane Amanpour confirms that US and Israeli analysts admit Iran is firmly in the driving seat of this war. She also reveals the assassinated Iranian negotiator was actually their favored candidate for a transition.
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I’ve heard many experienced military experts discuss the Strait, some of who participated in opening it by force in the 1980s. All of them are certain that forcing it open is absolutely achievable— it just requires the determination to do so. In fact, all argue, the war cannot be considered a success if it’s left in Iranian control.
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Multiple reports say U.S. allies believe the Strait of Hormuz can’t be reopened by force or threats.
Israeli officials, however, expect the Trump administration to apply heavy pressure or act forcefull to reopen it. This may not happen, but it’s what Israel is preparing for.
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Ah okay, so it’s just that you don’t understand geopolitics. Of course Trump knew, the Israelis would never take such action without Trump’s green light. And the pinpoint strike on a Hamas terrorist in Qatar, who was providing safe haven? Okay, you may not like it, but this guy had the blood on his hands of thousands of people. It was absolutely the right decision. Don’t F with Israel. The Jews have had it with the world killing us for free. Sorry, those days are long gone. FU if you don’t like it.
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@noonkoof @AntilesSeth @hughhewitt Off the top of my head the Israeli strike in Qatar a few months ago. The Israeli officials response to Trumps post last night about the Israeli strike of that gas field,as well as the strike itself.
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MORNING GLORY: Israel is America’s best ally — we must reject the evil of antisemitism foxnews.com/opinion/mornin… #FoxNews
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@edwardfishman There is absolutely nothing to be surprised at. Oil fuels the global economy.
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The lenience with which the U.S. has treated Iranian oil is my biggest surprise of the war so far.
Goes to show how low Washington’s pain tolerance is for rising oil prices…
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Well, I did not anticipate this: *BESSENT: US MAY UNSANCTION IRANIAN OIL THAT’S ON WATER
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@northshoreliny @hughhewitt I asked you a question. Guess you’re not interested in answering. Okay.
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@AntilesSeth @hughhewitt Ahhh I see. Now I need to prove that I’m not an anti Semite since I’m not singing the Israeli governments praise and cheerleading every single action and policy and its impact on my country. Got it. Btw, am I allowed to refer to my country? You know, the United States?
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@northshoreliny @hughhewitt Dear Carolliny, be precise, what’s your criticism of the Israeli government?
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@hughhewitt Dear Hugh - I've always been a big supporter of Israel, but of late, I really don't like what I'm seeing from the Israeli government. Am I now an anti-Semite? Just trying to figure out what the rules are.
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@robin_j_brooks Is the dollar still going to fall by 10% this year?
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The huge spike in oil prices and a relatively hawkish Fed are unambiguously bad news for the Yen. My best guess as to why $/JPY hasn't gone above 160 yet is that there's quasi-official flows like pension funds and life insurers that are supporting the Yen.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-yen-fall…
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@sarahadams @Ostrov_A @TraciThompson70 Not a Russian asset, just another Tucker Carlson kiss ass follower. Bad for America.
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@Ostrov_A @TraciThompson70 You might not like Kent, but to say he’s a Russian asset is total bullshit.
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Oh look, within an hour of going on Tucker Carlson, Joe Kent's interview has already been enthusiastically shared on Iranian and Russian state TV. Their handlers in Tehran and Moscow must be just delighted!
Tucker Carlson@TuckerCarlson
Joe Kent on why we actually went to war with Iran.
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@zriboua Thank you Zineb! Absolutely nobody ever says this out loud. The rules based order never existed. When did China, Russia. Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and others ever respect an international order?
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It never existed, it was a fantasy.
Caitlin Flanagan@CaitlinPacific
Anyone ever miss the rules-based international order?
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@SpencerGuard @ShawnRyan762 Great article John. Hopefully the restrainers will read the analysis with an open, honest mind.
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@ShawnRyan762 Shawn, that's a bad take. There is a much larger picture. China and Russia big losers in their grand strategy plans: wsj.com/opinion/china-…
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“If I were Russia and China, I would let Iran play out longer. I would let the U.S. use more of its military warfighting capability, and then when they’ve played it down enough, I would go take Taiwan. It’s what they wanted to do for a long time, but we are kind of holding them back. If I were China, I would say, let’s let them play this out, we’ll let them get tired—once they’re tired, we’ll do what we want to do, and they won’t be able to stop us because they’re going to be too tired to come over here and do that.”
@MichaelTLester
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@ShawnRyan762 Shawn, it’s pretty clear from your podcasts that you’re a dumb guy and you’re views on war strategy punctuate your low IQ.
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@ksadjadpour @andersoncooper One thing that we should ask is does US and Israel have the capability to protect Iranian protesters from the air? Yesterday Bibi told the Iranian people to celebrate in the streets, and he added “we are watching from above.”
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Israel is targeting the Islamic Republic’s pillars of repression. The question is whether these are structural pillars, or men who can be easily replaced. The regime’s deep unpopularity and isolation have hardened its resolve. CNN with @andersoncooper
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@CarolineGlick @BBCWorld Caroline, great interview, you articulated the necessity of these actions against Iran clearly and cogently. Some people have no interest in hearing the truth. The BBC falls into that category.
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Here's my full interview with the @bbcworld from Monday. And in the first two comments are a couple of outtakes.
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Haviv, isn’t it amazing that these ideologues are held up as scholars? I know it’s the norm in the United States. I remember a few decades ago when I was fooled into thinking that Vali Nasr was a serious intellectual. Years later I see that he’s a joke pretending to do serious analysis.
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You can't get more hardline and Islamist and brutal and committed to the revolution's worst excesses than Ali Larijani. There's no actual measure by which he's any definition of "moderate," not in opinion or action.
This is just pure dumb propaganda.
Vali Nasr@vali_nasr
Larijani’s replacement will be appointed by IRGC. With every assassination U.S. and Israel engineering greater radicalization of Iran’s leadership. It will makes for a bleak future for Iran, Iranians, the region and ultimately makes it far more difficult for U.S. to disentangle itself from endless conflict in the region.
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@Nadav_Eyal Thanks Nadav, great insights. Wonder are we days, weeks (or longer) away from a big action to open the Strait? Markets and economies are becoming more vulnerable by the day.
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Exclusive: Senior Israeli official on the Hormuz crisis: "The Americans assessed this might happen and planned for it - and any other argument is factually not true". Adds Israeli intel officials thought this to be a 'highly likely' scenario. Link:
open.substack.com/pub/nadave/p/l…
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@jasonfurman Jason, you are a rare commodity— one of the few social scientists who don’t allow their personal political preferences to interfere with their analysis. It’s so incredibly refreshing to see objective analysis.
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This is exactly right. And the correct answer post-Ukraine invasion is the correct answer now: just focus on core inflation. There is very little passthrough from oil prices to core. (And looking through 95% may be better than looking through 100%.)
Adam Ozimek@ModeledBehavior
Don't understand why another supply shock should affect the path of rates. Excessive focus on supply shocks as an explanation for pandemic inflation is a problem. Its causing excess fear from poliymakers today.
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@jasonfurman Finally an economist talks about oil prices in real terms. Another way of saying it is that we are not experiencing an oil shock, at least not yet.
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Remember when oil topped $150/barrel in the wake of the 2011 Libya strikes? And stayed above that price for most of the next 2 yrs?
OK, you may not remember because you probably weren't thinking about oil in 2026 prices back then. But if you were that's what you would have seen.
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