Antoine Roth

Very happy to announce that my article on "Face-work in East Asia's diplomatic culture" has just been published in the East Asia journal (and in open access!) Link in the next post.

This is the Al-Furqan neighbourhood in Aleppo—the number of solar panels is genuinely impressive.

The whole US “foreign policy elite” has brain rot and is beyond redemption

ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O) is worth understanding. Ghalibaf is mathematically making the point that the oil prices will be much worse as a result of BSOH = Blockade Strait of Hormuz. There the first order effect f(O), and possibly a significant second order effect, f(f(O)). In simple language the mathematical equation is saying, Trump if you worsen Hormuz disruption (positive delta), then the resulting gas prices will be much higher than even the first round of increases — you’ll miss the current ‘high’ prices. Ghalibaf qualified as an engineer!

Piker treats working class people a lot better than your version of Democratic party does.

European businesses are seriously spooked by China's new supply chain law EU Chamber in China statement says companies will struggle to comply with both EU rules and Chinese ones. Absolutely caught in a bind

Hasan Piker: “My goal is to instill class consciousness in people and help them identify who is actually causing harm to them and in my assessment it’s the billionaires and the corporations not the vulnerable populations. It’s not a trans person or a Guatemalan migrant that’s raising your rent, it’s your landlord”

Don’t worry, folks—if the Houthis block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, Trump will just double blockade it.

This must surely be a joke. The US has for decades tried to destroy the Iranian economy through pressure that goes beyond what North Korea has endured. When that failed, it went for war. Now that war has failed, it's going back to...economic pressure? This is Trump's play?

when I got my degree in history with a concentration in medieval Europe, I did not foresee my knowledge of mad emperors attacking the pope would become useful again

Killing diplomatic representative who come to negotiate was a practice morally abhorred by 5,000 years of civilization. But now--after the last month's wanton killings of leaders--it seems to have become accepted as a normal practice. The descent into extraordinary barbarism is extraordinarily rapid.

“Israel continued its large-scale bombing of Hezbollah targets” - NYT “Israeli jets drop 160 bombs on Hezbollah targets” - LA Times “Israel's military called it the largest coordinated strike in the current war, striking more than 100 Hezbollah targets within 10 mins” - PBS/AP

I doubt Pope Leo XIV will lose any sleep over this, before he begins his pilgrimage to Africa tomorrow. But the rest of us should. Because it is unhinged, uncharitable and unchristian. Is there no bottom to this moral squalor?

The talks over Israeli-Lebanese normalization have broken down due to intense opposition from the majority of the Lebanese people: 1) Prime Minister Salam postponed his planned trip to the U.S. on April 11, 2026, citing the need to "safeguard the security of the Lebanese people and preserve national unity" amidst a domestic firestorm. 2) Polls consistently show that a vast majority of Lebanese citizens, ranging from 75% to 89%, reject recognizing or normalizing ties with Israel. Many view Israel as Lebanon's primary enemy and a major regional threat. 3) A major sticking point remains the lack of a ceasefire. Lebanese officials have stated there will be no negotiations while Israeli strikes continue, whereas Israel has insisted on holding the talks "under fire" without pausing military operations. 4) Thousands have recently demonstrated in Beirut against Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government following reports of planned direct negotiations with Israel. Protesters have labeled these moves a betrayal and a "Vichy regime" tactic. 5) Lebanese law explicitly prohibits normalization and any direct contact with Israeli citizens. Violations are treated as high treason and can carry severe penalties, including life imprisonment or the death penalty. 6) Therefore, Salam and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri have repeatedly stated that normalization is "out of the question" and that Lebanon is "far from" diplomatic ties. Lebanon maintains it will not enter a peace agreement except within a broad Arab regional framework, specifically the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. Israel will not be able to bomb and bully Lebanon into normalization. The only way to reach peace is to treat its neighbors as equals and move towards a Palestinian state.

This is exactly right. Renewal in the West will come from the humility to learn from those once looked down on. The sooner the elites recognize their arrogance has become delusional and learn some humility the better.

🥳

@neeratanden i’ve voted, actively doorknocked for, fundraised platformed dems & progressive causes for the last decade and a half while they were working to oppose your agenda. the issue is you have more in common w them then you do w me. and that’s the problem you’re facing rn.

Bunch of people have asked so to answer directly: these Hormuz offset numbers are entirely bunk. Absolutely fair to be optimistic about the war ending and Hormuz reopening, but it’s fundamentally flawed to say we’re offset the Hormuz supply loss and irresponsible to clam it’s not a serious ongoing crisis. Bad estimates (the reality below) 🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute (That’s total East -West pipeline capacity, already had 2-2.5 on the line so remaining “swing” from Gulf to Red Sea is 4.5-5.0 MMbpd) 📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus (We did have a pre-war surplus, but it was closer to 2 MMbpd, and even that remains disputed—I was on the bearish side of the debate) 🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage (There is no steady cleared safe passage) 🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute (Again, this is the pipe capacity—swing is more like 0.5-0.7) 🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass (This is silly, Jask never demonstrated that capacity but more fundamentally Iran Hormuz flows actually remain higher than that at 1.5+ MMbpd) 🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage (There is no steady cleared safe passage) In reality, we have ~13 MMbpd of upstream Gulf production offline, with no sustainable offset—SPRs, etc. are only a temporary help. Today’s Trump blockade would raise that to more than 15 MMbpd.

Regarding Trump's threat/decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran, color me a skeptic. 1. Taking more oil off the market, particularly the only oil that is now getting out from the Persian Gulf, will drive oil prices further up, and the paper price of oil will get closer to the actual price, which should be around $150 per barrel. A dramatic increase in inflation in the US will ensue. Avoiding this is precisely why Trump was stuck in a position where he had no escalatory options out of this conflict before the ceasefire. He still doesn't. 2. Stopping tankers carrying Iranian oil wouldn't just be an escalation vis-à-vis Iran, but also against the countries that are buying Iranian oil, which includes China, India, and other Asian countries. I doubt Trump is ready for that escalation, particularly given the upcoming summit in Beijing. 3. This is also true for punishing countries that have negotiated a toll with Iran for the Straits. That includes Pakistan, which hosted the negotiations. 4. The naval blockade escalation will make the closing of the Red Sea more likely by the Houthis. That would take another 12% of global oil flow off the market. We would now be looking at oil around $200 per barrel. There are nine or so days left of the ceasefire. Since neither side has explicitly stated that talks won't resume, or that the ceasefire is dead and over with, all these moves should be treated as tactics and threats within the negotiations. It wouldn't be surprising if these threats are walked back soon (perhaps before markets open on Monday) and a new round is announced. HOWEVER, there is a time for brinkmanship, and there is a time for serious negotiations. If the US truly was insisting on zero enrichment in Islamabad, which was not Trump's red line at first but rather Israel's, then the next talks will be rendered a failure - just as the talks in May 2025 were killed by Trump shifting to the Israeli red line. Still, I don't think that necessarily will lead to a return to war. A more likely scenario is a new non-negotiated status quo in which Tehran retains control over the Straits but doesn't get any sanctions relief, while the US pulls out of the war, and the question becomes whether Israel will continue the war on its own.

It’s possible they didn’t even think about considering how stupid and incompetent they are, but how does T expect to be received in China in a few weeks after blocking oil destined in large part for it? This is so unsustainable it may (hopefully) fail before it even starts.