Apollo

Sending out some stuff to investors in the coming months. We have some extra hats if any of you vol nerds would like em. Just like the tweet and we will randomly pick a few folks to send one to.

@VivekVRao1 Spot-vol beta residuals are amazing to disect.

I'd guess that oil implied vol is also high when there is extreme contango in oil futures, as in 2020, so that the relationship between vol and backwardation is nonlinear. Would be interesting to study.

@StewartalsopIII @NoLimitGains Echo chambers tend to lead away from Logic. Only answer they want is what creates more attention instead of reality.

@NoLimitGains If BofA and Citi are short 4.4 billion ounces, why did the December Bank Participation Report show US banks NET LONG in silver for the first time in recorded history?

🚨 THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE I’ve been analyzing this for the last 6 hours and this is VERY BAD. World silver production: ~800M ounces BofA & Citi shorts: 4.4 BILLION I’ve spent two decades in macro, and I thought I had seen it all. I WAS WRONG. Here’s what I uncovered: What you’re looking at isn't just a large short position. It’s a solvency event for the entire commodities complex. Let’s break down the technicals of why BofA being short 1B ounces and Citi being short 3.4B ounces is not just bad trading, it’s a systemic disaster. THE SUPPLY/DEMAND DISCONNECT: Global silver production is effectively capped at 800M ounces per year. The combined short position of just two banks is 4.4 BILLION ounces. Do the math. To cover these positions, these banks would need to buy every single ounce of silver mined out of the ground for the next 5.5 years. – No jewelry – No solar panels – No electronics – No coins But here is the kicker: Industrial demand already consumes ~60% OF ANNUAL SUPPLY. The "free float" of investment-grade silver is tiny. They aren't shorting a market, they are shorting a phantom supply that DOES NOT EXIST. How is this even allowed? It’s called unallocated accounts and rehypothecation. The bullion banks have likely leased the same physical bar of silver to 10, 20, maybe 50 different clients. They sold you "silver exposure," took your cash, and used it to suppress the price on the COMEX. It works fine as long as everyone is happy holding paper... but the moment confidence breaks, the moment a whale like a sovereign wealth fund or a tech giant demands physical delivery, the game ends. "Has this happened before?" The answer is a hard NO. People point to the Hunt Brothers in 1980. That was child's play. The Hunts were trying to corner the market by buying physical. This is the opposite. This is institutional naked shorting on a scale that defies physics. The banks have sold 5x the annual planetary output of a strategic metal. We are looking at a "Force Majeure" event. When the squeeze starts, the Comex will likely change the rules. They will switch to "cash settlement only." They will tell you, "Sorry, we can't give you the silver we sold you, here is the cash equivalent at yesterday's closing price." But the real price, the street price for actual physical metal, WILL DETATCH. We’re about to see a bifurcation of the market: 1. Paper Price: Managed, suppressed, irrelevant. 2. Physical Price: Vertical. IF YOU DON’T HOLD IT, YOU DON’T OWN IT. Btw, I’ve called every major market top and bottom for OVER 10 YEARS. When I make my next move, I’ll share it here for everyone to see. Still haven’t followed me? You’ll regret it, just watch.

@paxtrader777 @CollinRugg Unfortunately, in this world, evil looks after its own.

@CollinRugg What has happened to this country??? Why do we protect the evil within?

NEW: Oklahoma teen confronted after avoiding all jail time despite being convicted of r*ping two high school students. Jesse Butler was facing a 78-year sentence, but was granted youthful offender status. The r*pist so badly assaulted one of the girls that she needed surgery on her neck. According to the girl, Butler repeatedly r*ped and strangled her. The girl was about 30 seconds from losing her life, according to a doctor. Butler was only placed on probation despite the horrific details, avoiding 78 years behind bars. His father is a former football director at Oklahoma State University. Infuriating. Video: @OKCFOX

@RobinhoodApp MERCH

You deserve a treat. Comment below and we may send you some merch.

2018 and 2020 had 10% corrections, 2017 had no correction at all, 2019 was -2.7% correction. 2024 was a little over -9% correction as it led into the Yen carry trade blowout. Correlation is not causation. Just an event that occurred before these large moves.

Some fun stats.... $SPX has gapped up 3 times outside prior day trading range 3 days in a row at ATH This is the 7th event in the past 10 years of SPX data.

@rnd_ruglife @0x_antifragile Guess the more money you put behind an indicator, the more you can move in the favor of the signal. Enter now and worry about the exit when we cross that bridge lmao

@0x_antifragile moving half a billion on indicators your cousin learned from a youtube tutorial - respect the craft lol

wait so it turns out HL "insider" bear gigawhale is trading 500M positions based on MACD divergence ? cmon man

@maxanderson @claud801 At least 25 to 1 to get your toes wet. 100 to 1 if you want the equivalent feeling of caffeine.

@claud801 Great tip will try this How much leverage do you recommend?

Been trying to quit caffeine permanently 1 week in today and it’s still brutal Any tips from people who’ve kicked it successfully?

@QuikCarp Amazing paper, glad you mention it. Some wild stats in here... hard to take in at first glance.

@QuikCarp Although not the secret sauce, I believe it offers good insight on portfolio deltas and portfolio vegas of sticky inventory along with how they would manage short term rvol with it.

Macro regime check: Current conditions sit closest to Goldilocks (d=1.4), not Recession or Stagflation. That tilt implies growth is holding up with inflation slight lift a setup that usually favors a steeper 2s10s curve. Source: Authors’ Calculations and Based Upon Verda’s Research (adding regimes to their work)

@lord_fed 6527

I see everyone’s woken up an expert on direction today. Let’s see who can nail precision… Drop your SPX close guess, closest gets a free month of The Gazette.

@minus1_12 Adding my 2 cents here. MM's are one of the largest Mean reversion traders in the game. While Gamma exposes spot risk, its mean to cover realized vol while options bake premiums into implied vol. Dealer Vanna would be a great proxy here -> what is the size of their skew risk.

To conclude: Extrapolating dealer gamma to predict volatility is not as mechanical as typically presented. This doesn't mean dealer gamma isn't useful. You can look at it as the mirror image of bets placed by directional traders, weighted by gamma. It's a great lens into positioning, from which you can try to infer the views on volatility that led to it.

Dealer gamma is often framed as a volatility predictor. If dealers are long gamma → δ-hedging adds liquidity → dampens realized volatility If dealers are short gamma → δ-hedging takes liquidity → amplifies realized volatility But this relies on a number of assumptions. I'll question a few of them in this thread. H/t to @Gravity5ucks for kindly checking my notes. (1/n)

@sdav1986 Best I can do it join the bid. Don't want to lift the offer. Going to make the MM's work for it!

Please bid up those options

The market's reaction to Jackson Hole yesterday 8/22

@Citrini7 6482

one shirt to whoever guesses closest to the spx closing print

@TraderAlex95 The good part is that nothing hides in Time and Sales. It is a question of information efficiency. Who can sort through the information bottleneck the quickest.

There's so much edge out there if you just go looking for it and use your brain a little. There was even a quant guy giving out the whole playbook, and the buy side was so incredibly lazy that nothing changed, lol.

@Oblique369 Level aligns with the tiny iceberg of ~2600 lots in $ES_F earlier around 11am EST along with size shown on the offer.

Large whales are active on both sides of bonds as seen in the image. The new core seen is not a common position as they have had no fear last few months. Bond traders showed no fear shorting bonds during early tariff news cycle despite experts pumping max fear. They stayed long equity while panic continued ( see prior updates) That is not the case now, and we need to be less complacent unless we see two things: Current ES weekly net shorts are at 6,470. Bulls want bond traders to sell long positions, turning net shorts of 6,470 into a forced bid to resume the equity bid. Bears want Bond whales to keep building long cores, shifting equity-supportive rant to equity sell.

Important Bonds 10yr (ZN_F) update: We are suspending our motto since April/may " Bonds short remain equity supportive". To resume equity supportive flows, we have to see exit the core longs and begin actively shorting bonds. Will update more if any changes. ES now 6465, Net shorts are 6470 weekly.

@PicturesFoIder I don't think he can park there

Plane crash on golfing green