@ntrlsk Deribit fees and spreads considered.
All trades executed at top bid.
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GravitySucks
4.9K posts
GravitySucks
@Gravity5ucks
Freedom maximalist. Data alchemist @GenesisVol
Katılım Mayıs 2010
1.1K Takip Edilen9.3K Takipçiler
@Gravity5ucks Have seen this in every single asset class and the chart looks exactly the same, devil is in the details. The execution cost typically sucks and creates a lot of additional drag on your PNL
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So you finally learned trading is just taking the risks the others don't want.
Here you go a strategy.
You're welcome.
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@Virtuvest6 @PelionCap Deribit fees and spreads considered.
All positions traded at bid. Probably you can do a little better with some effort in the orderbook.
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@Gravity5ucks @PelionCap How do you model execution? Do you cross the spread? Limit orders x bps below mark? Place a bid top of book? Market order?
From my experience the actual execution eats into crypto options heavily. Not sure if thats the case still but worth checking
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@minus1_12 1 contract (inverse instrument).
Hedging makes no sense in this case, since it’s daily at 8 utc. But I can simulate hedging with threshold or hourly too.
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@Gravity5ucks Sorry, I have to ask.
How are the positions sized (e.g. contract or $-notional) and what's the hedging methodology?
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@CKongee @Gravity5ucks it does but VRP has been extremely elevated on BTC in last years and usually big moves happen on sunday pre CME open while this closes trade at 10am utc, I think holding this to monday expiration has way worse results
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@Gravity5ucks sell atm straddle at friday close with sunday morning expiration?
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GravitySucks retweetledi
Actually big news.
Bitcoin wins over gold here, because gold can be seized.
Bitcoin wins out over stablecoins, because Iran needs (not wants) the censorship resistant characteristics + Iran is purposefully trying to exit supporting the US dollar system in protest of the war.
Tree News@TreeNewsFeed
[🌲] Iran to charge tanker transit tolls in Bitcoin, says Hosseini — FT
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GravitySucks retweetledi
4) Data shows that dealers are short modest Gamma at this level of Spot and below, and long Gamma above.
This makes sense given the weekend theta, and continuous Fund flows buying Puts, funded by selling Calls above current Spot.
As we approach Trump 'deadlines' this may change.
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He already tried once to hijhack bitcoin during block size wars supporting bitcoin xt.
Make your own considerations.
Brian Armstrong@brian_armstrong
Going to start spending time on this personally - seems like we all need to solve it sooner rather than later.
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@hansolar21 Perfect sum up of every fud on the table rn. Fud, that’s it.
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Sometimes it feels like BTC is actually is in a worse position than some alts.
Quantum risk
Saylor's centralization
Multiple DATs that may capitulate
Miners pivoting towards AI
Liquidation of criminal gains in BTC
Stablecoin/onchain-Gold proliferation
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Follow up all the thread.
Tradfi is inventing risks and talking about basic things don’t understand (how bitcoin works).
There are several good arguments about having a qc roadmap, but these are not
Grok@grok
Bitcoin's consensus (PoW) uses SHA-256 hashing, which quantum computers only speed up quadratically via Grover's algorithm—not enough to break mining security or the chain. The risk is isolated to ECDSA signatures: Shor's algorithm can derive private keys from exposed public keys, allowing theft of specific UTXOs (only ~25-30% of BTC are vulnerable). Ethereum faces broader impact due to its account-based model (public keys stay exposed after first tx, unlike Bitcoin's UTXO reuse) and PoS consensus, which relies on BLS signatures for validator attestations. Quantum could forge these at scale, potentially impersonating validators, subverting finality, or finalizing fake blocks—hitting consensus directly, not just funds. Recent analyses (e.g., Google Quantum AI) flag $100B+ ETH at risk across wallets, contracts, and stake.
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@JSeyff @MorganStanley @grok explain why there is no risk at consensus level for bitcoin but just for the signing part of the protocol and why ethereum has more impact for quantum computer than bitcoin
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I know you're joking but don't worry. @MorganStanley understands and discloses the risks to Bitcoin from quantum computing in their prospectus (as do the other Bitcoin ETF issuers)
Proof of Brain@ProofofBrain_
@JSeyff @MorganStanley They should withdraw since quantum is gonna kill btc.
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I don't recall ever seeing anything like this on such a short-dated expiration (22 hours).
Yesterday with spot at 66.5k someone went massively long an April 1st call condor spread, paid ~$220k.
Currently at >x10 profit.
These are the sort of 0DTE trades well known in tradfi using gamma exposure as secret sauce.
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GravitySucks retweetledi
A co-author on Google's quantum paper calls himself a "Bitcoin security researcher." He actually works for the Ethereum Foundation.
Then at the end of his own thread about breaking Bitcoin's cryptography, he casually drops that "Bitcoin PoW is cooked." Totally unbiased research.
TFTC@TFTC21
A quantum computer just "broke" Bitcoin. Except it didn't. Not even close. Google Quantum AI published a paper showing they've cut the theoretical ECDSA attack down to 1,200 logical qubits. They didn't publish the circuits. They didn't run the attack. They published a zero-knowledge proof that their math works, then cited national security. Here's where we actually are. Entangled logical qubits achieved so far: 96 Coherence time: 1-2 seconds Time the attack requires: days Physical qubits needed: 500,000 Largest quantum computer today: 1,200 noisy, non-error-corrected qubits That's a 100,000x coherence gap. It's not a software problem. It's a fundamental engineering problem that nobody has solved. But here's what most people miss. Bitcoin developers aren't waiting for a crisis. They're already shipping. SHRIMPS: post-quantum signatures 3x smaller than NIST standards, built for Bitcoin's block space constraints. BIP-360: a quantum-resistant output type already live on testnet, with BTQ Technologies running transactions through it. The full upgrade could take 7 years. That's why the work started now. The protocol will be ready before the computers are.
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GravitySucks retweetledi
A quantum computer just "broke" Bitcoin. Except it didn't. Not even close.
Google Quantum AI published a paper showing they've cut the theoretical ECDSA attack down to 1,200 logical qubits. They didn't publish the circuits. They didn't run the attack. They published a zero-knowledge proof that their math works, then cited national security.
Here's where we actually are.
Entangled logical qubits achieved so far: 96
Coherence time: 1-2 seconds
Time the attack requires: days
Physical qubits needed: 500,000
Largest quantum computer today: 1,200 noisy, non-error-corrected qubits
That's a 100,000x coherence gap. It's not a software problem. It's a fundamental engineering problem that nobody has solved.
But here's what most people miss.
Bitcoin developers aren't waiting for a crisis. They're already shipping.
SHRIMPS: post-quantum signatures 3x smaller than NIST standards, built for Bitcoin's block space constraints.
BIP-360: a quantum-resistant output type already live on testnet, with BTQ Technologies running transactions through it.
The full upgrade could take 7 years. That's why the work started now.
The protocol will be ready before the computers are.
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How is it possible this newsletter has less than 5k followers?
CookBook@CookBookSauce
New COOKBOOK out now Magus - First positioning shift in a while Doc — Orderflow clues at the lows Charlie - Getting roasted in Japan Stoic - Claude Code shows me the outliers Mercury - Generational bottom territory read below 👇
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GravitySucks retweetledi
Bitcoin rn feels like when your parents joined Facebook. On one hand it’s not as “cool” anymore bc of the Boomers but on the other hand Facebook’s user base grew to from like 1b to 3b people since the coolness factor went away, so..
LondonCryptoClub@LDNCryptoClub
It’s funny as we get so many no-coiners say to us Bitcoin has died, no one’s interested in it anymore …yet really, it’s just getting started
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GravitySucks retweetledi
Also, the pressure to replace current established signatures with novel "post-quantum" one may very well be an attempt by government to inject backdoors. This is why, even ignoring the huge scalability challenges, any discussion should always be about adding and never replacing.
(PS: the quantum FUD is still fake and gay from a physics point of view)
Aye 👩🏻💻 ⚡️@ayebytes
quantum resistant signatures are much larger than ECDSA/Schnorr optimized hash-based constructions like SHRINCS have ~3–4KB signatures, compared to ~64B today
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