Arno Venter

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Arno Venter

Arno Venter

@ArnoVenter_

Cross-Asset Market Analysis & Research

Australia Katılım Haziran 2019
562 Takip Edilen4K Takipçiler
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Arno Venter
Arno Venter@ArnoVenter_·
Periodical reminder that the S&P requires 'reasons' to sell off, and not reasons to rally. Also, another reminder that there is very little benefit in getting married to any particular bias, but were you to get married to one, in the long run history favours a bullish one. There will be fluctuations and sell offs along the way, but for better long-term mental health you'd probably want to be the person on the right far more often than the person on the left. Just saying. Have fun.
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Arno Venter
Arno Venter@ArnoVenter_·
@PiQSuite Reckon strongly correlated to a rise in AD and AI content no doubt
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PiQ@PiQSuite·
The rise of Unsocial Media
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Arno Venter
Arno Venter@ArnoVenter_·
What is the bloody point!? If you're that concerned then at least make an effort, but one hike!? If you want to get caffeinated you don't get a single shot.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Three key takeaways from today's RBNZ May policy decision. @ArnoVenter_ says rate differentials mean #AUDNZD is a pair worth keeping on the radar 👇 #RBNZ #NZD
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Arno Venter
Arno Venter@ArnoVenter_·
Implied volatility support and resistance levels for #AUD pairs ahead of the CPI data 👇
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Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets

According to our Analyst, @ArnoVenter_, this could pose a bit of asymmetric risk for the #AUD, where a downside surprise could have a bigger impact than a beat. However, a print below the min or above the max expectations can still have reactions across major asset classes.

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Arno Venter
Arno Venter@ArnoVenter_·
Result of overfitting during backtests 👇
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Internal note today from our Analyst, @ArnoVenter_ "Remember we have T-2 on Wednesday and last day for benchmarking on Friday. With US equity outperformance in April and May, be mindful of potential rebalancing as funds might need to sell dollars to maintain hedge ratios" $USD
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Arno Venter
Arno Venter@ArnoVenter_·
The move in yields has made carry cost for gold more attractive. It's still a Dollar regime but yesterday's moves across asset classes does suggest solana:GoLDppdjB1vDTPSGxyMJFqdnj134yH6Prg9eqsGDiw6A is trading cheap relative to it's macro drivers.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Despite all the traditional thinking around solana:GoLDppdjB1vDTPSGxyMJFqdnj134yH6Prg9eqsGDiw6A as a safe haven, $XAU currently has a positive +0.80 correlation to $SPX...
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
5. Rate expectations by year-end for the FOMC versus the ECB. One of these is not like the other.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Charts that make you go 'hhmmmm'... 1. United States vs Eurozone Citi Economic Surprise Index. Ouch.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Today's Market Views from our Analyst, @ArnoVenter_ 👇 - RISK-ON due to Geopol 'deal' optimism - Nikkei, ES & NQ at all-time highs - Oil falls 4%, USD retreats, commodity-FX higher along with bonf futures - Thin liquidity as US, UK & EU on bank holidays youtu.be/0d11_1nTH6g?si…
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Arno Venter
Arno Venter@ArnoVenter_·
Current rate expectations by year-end for major central bank versus a month ago...
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Arno Venter
Arno Venter@ArnoVenter_·
I wouldn't say I'm delighted, but debunking commonly held assumptions is a bit of hobby, some context on why I don't think it's a hedge in the way many have been taught 👇 youtube.com/shorts/lCVKJCu…
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Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets

$XAU is not trading as a fear hedge or haven either. With strong neg correlation to $USD (-0.86) & $US10Y and pos correlation to $ES (+0.80). To our analyst Arno's delight, $XAU is lower despite higher CPI & inflation expectations as he doesn't think it's a good inflation hedge.

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Arno Venter
Arno Venter@ArnoVenter_·
So Gilts are having a great time because a politician who wants to improve their approval rating said they won't be racking up a ton of more debt, even though they plan to rack up a ton of more debt, and people believe this person?
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