Astrabiene
35 posts
April was one hell of a month, the most canonical event for sure was April 7 when the ‘Strait of Hormuz opened’ and we were off to the races.
Here is an update of how my portfolio is holding up this month:
Core holdings (75% allocation)
[For this exercise all entries are equally weighted, in reality they are not]
Photonics + 90.67%
$SIVE -> +284%
$AAOI -> + 77%
$MRVL -> +54% (Trimmed 25%)
$AEHR -> +85% (Trimmed 25%)
$IQE -> -6% (Got in late April)
$AXTI -> + 50% (Sold 100%… took an F)
Memory + 54.67%
$MU + 48%
$SNDK +69%
Sk Hynix +47%
Foundry +23.50%
Win Semi +37%
$TSEM +10%
Chips +52.33%
$AMD + 66%
$ARM + 42%
$INTC + 49%
NeoClouds +60%
$NBIS +60% (2 trades– exited mid April at +48%, re-entered late April +12%)
Equally weighted core holdings performance = 64.85%
New holdings 25% allocation (since mid April )
$PDFS +2%
$LPKF +60%
$M7U + 13%
$NVTS + 14%
$LWLG + 23%
$POET - 15% (still holding)
Equally weighted new holdings performance + 16.17%
Plus some trades on the side… TRT +80%, XML +60%
My portfolio is highly concentrated on the AI buildout, photonics names are doing the heavy lifting. $SIVE alone is making me escape out of the permanent underclass
- Thanks S.
I only do common stocks and margin up to 30% when a fire sale presents itself.
How did you do in April?
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@aleabitoreddit Starting a second account for brr ideas as an anonymus would be brrr for you
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@aleabitoreddit Don't forget to mention the Helium crisis as well😂
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Everyone was doomposting $EWY 2 months ago.
Calling it “Silver Crash” or “KOSPI crash bubble”
Now they’re all flip flopping opinions, saying they were bullish memory all along.
Even despite fear posting from $RPI to $SIVE, my thesis ends up right.
Main reason I got 245K+ followers is because I’m consistently right about my opinions while taking a firm directional stance.
My $EWY longs are now up ~3x.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Feels like everyone is doom-posting KOSPI saying: > “Look at the chart, it can’t keep going up like this!” > Memory is a black hole for demand ( $SNDK taking 3Y preorders ) > $EWY is basically just two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, not a representation of the Korean economy > Like saying Taiwan Index is a bubble because the index that tracks $TSM and Mediatek goes up. > Memory demand/AI doesn’t just disappear because of a War in Iran, but it does get more expensive. > Increased energy from crude/LNG get passed down to hyperscalers, not eaten up in opex. It’s looks to be fear selling and deleveraging (3x ETFs and 10x likely got wiped out today) rather than materially operational (slight bearish headwind, but not enough for -30%). SK Hynix futures is now trading in the high $300B MC-low $400B range. If MS and updated analyst projections are even slightly right, SK Hynix’s operating profits for example would be ~$300B. They’ll be sitting on too much money by 2028 as a cushion if memory prices drops. (and not even considering demand becomes structural). Looks to be another DeepSeek-Nvidia type fear selling situation, especially as nand/dram prices get hiked again recently. More of a question of timing the bottom. It’s times like these logic matter more than irrational headline selling.
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@TVAFR786 @aleabitoreddit Just dont buy if you are not trusting that all of the hyperscaler etc will blow the shit out of bookings the next quarters
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Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts:
Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE.
So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them).
Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally.
Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP +
assembly for higher margins anyway.
Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
Mikael Wåhlin@Plaskpojken
Just remembered something that we dug up a couple of years ago, and it solidifies our firm belief that Sivers ( $SIVE / $SIVEF ) already has a direct connection to Celestial AI. 🚨 While retail algos panic-sold the Marvell/POET cancellation thinking the bridge was burned, smart money knows how to follow the financial footprints. Let’s look at a Sivers corporate presentation from a while back. They listed their anonymous "Optical I/O" clients (Customer B, C, and D) alongside Ayar Labs, and dropped a highly specific clue: These anonymous clients raised a combined $250 million in 2023. Now, let's look at the major Silicon Photonics networking companies that raised capital in 2023: ▪️ Lightmatter: Raised $154 million (Dec 2023). ▪️ Celestial AI: Raised $100 million (Jun 2023). $154M + $100M = $254 million. The math perfectly matches the Sivers slide. What does this mean? It proves that Sivers wasn't just blindly supplying lasers through a middleman. According to their own presentation, Celestial AI (now Marvell) and Lightmatter are their direct customers. When Marvell fires a packaging partner for breaching an NDA, the need for the physical light engine doesn't vanish. The technical "co-design" relationship between the system architect (Celestial AI) and the foundational laser foundry ($SIVE) was already established years ago. Algorithms trade headlines. Fundamental investors trade the supply chain reality. ⏳🔥 $SIVE $SIVEF #DeepTech #SiliconPhotonics #AI
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I've monitored the situation for you.
TLDR on hyperscaler capex spend (signal aside from $TSM).
From $MSFT, $AMZN, $META earnings:
Upstream semi supply chains go brrr.
$META: 2026 FY capex $115-$135B
Revised Q1 ER: $125B-$145B capex raised.
-> Higher component prices (price hikes)
-> Aggressive AI infra spending
-> Custom Model Training
$MSFT: was actually $31.9B vs ($35.29B) but due to supply chain bottlenecks, rather than lack of resources.
Still waiting for confirmation around $AMZN but their original capex projection was ~$200B from Jassy's note earlier this year.
So you can sleep easy, all the semi supply chain names still likely to keep going brr next quarter, since there's so much capex funneled into them.
Then you get the new fed chair who is gung-ho all in on AI + rate cuts, with Jerome keeping stuff chill in the back (which markets probably like)
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@jarad1821 not everyone with a "Capital" in their name has a clue
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@aleabitoreddit Of course the IBs are mad xD as macron said fOr sUrE
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This is true.
A few of bank analysts got passive aggressive when I called out $SOI back at $40 and it rose 125% since then.
Same with $SIVE and it’s risen a few hundred percent (and keeps going up)
But these same institutions are the one buying afterward on $IQE to $AXTI.
Usually institutions have silent accumulation periods blocks over months to not raise the price + accumulate the float off retail.
Then tell retail investors after it’s risen a lot and they own 5% of the company.
But if markets price that in a lot faster, institutions are forced to buy a lot higher.
Which is basically frontrunning institutions on supercycle names.
TopInvestor@Matrix_B0SS
This is funny, when retail investors are front running institutions they call it a bubble. What are they trying to do? Cause Chaos in market to buy Semi stocks cheaper as a lot of has been discovered. @aleabitoreddit $SIVE $LPKF $AXTI $AAOI
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Woah... Sivers looks like the primary laser supplier to $AMD's CPO program if AMD goes the Ayar route at $GFS.
The interesting thing is: $LITE and $MTSI were silently removed from Ayar's website sequentially over time.
(Special thanks to one of my followers Setian for the DM.)
So $SIVE likely became the primary laser supplier for Ayar first-gen... and by extension for all of Ayar's customers routing through Alchip or other ASIC design firms.
Ayar also raised $500M last month for VOLUME PRODUCTION, where $SIVE is designed in.
This find looks structurally massive for $SIVE as it undercuts narratives about $LITE and others being primary suppliers.
And especially about $SIVE having only a small % laser share for CPO if they're likely to be the primary laser supplier.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
The $AMD and $GFS CPO announcement is probably bigger than markets expect for $SIVE. With the news, it's likely $SIVE lasers power $AMD's CPO program. Either through two potential paths: 1. Enosemi (AMD's in-house PIC design post-acquisition). Enosemi's chiplets are fabbed at GF but for the ELS, $AMD could source it from multiple players with $SIVE as the underlying multi-source laser source. 2. Ayar ( $AMD invested in March 2026, Series E). Ayar's SuperNova light source already uses $SIVE DFB laser arrays alongside $LITE. Ayar's SuperNova is the most likely first-gen CPO path for MI500 in 2027 given timelines and the enormous fundraise last month. That path already has $SIVE designed in alongside $LITE and they both appear with $GFS's slide. Enosemi becomes more relevant for 2028+ generations? Regardless, $AMD through Enosemi/Ayar needs lasers for their 2027 MI500 rollout... It seems likely Sivers ends up powering $AMD's CPO program as the light source since they're designed into Ayar. The $AMD / $GFS materiality looks large for Sivers.
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Astrabiene retweetledi
Just 1 month ago, journalists and media tried downplaying my $SOI and $RPI thesis.
As “meme stocks that were set to crash” citing my WSB tag without analyzing the underlying thesis.
They’re both up 100% and held their gains.
Same is happening to companies like $SIVE.
I never argue from authority… but since they’re going that route:
I’m curious why… in their narratives they just leave out the fact I published fundamental AI papers in places like Nature with thousands of citations?
Other the fact other analysts on X positive about $SIVE today have Ph.Ds from places like UC Berkeley and publish in the photonics space?
It’s always the English or non-technical graduates that go out in the media and have the strongest opinion about CPO hyperscaler qualification cycles and supply chain mapping.
It just feels like institutions hate it when a retail investors on X know what they’re talking about.
A thesis should live and die based on merit, not the authority of who is comes from.
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@StormDirac I get the education Point! Quite Special that a CEO is seeking to educate people about an excitinf topic
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@Astrabiene Obviously education is need, no one knows the company as well I do. It’s my "child", I am happy happy to see it grow up. Spent 10 years building it. What is so hard to understand?
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Astrabiene retweetledi
$SIVE $SIVEF I was way too early to the party here. I heard of the company early from a good friend of mine who is very experienced in the 5G and telecom community. He gave me an introduction and view of the company and told me they have a great team and it’s only a matter of time until they get international investor attention.
Fast forward 5-6 years. Is now the time Sivers Semi Conductors is gonna rise to a multi billion dollar valuation? The company just announced they are evaluating the opportunity for a US Nasdaq listing which most likely will even out the large valuation gap between Sivers and it’s US competitors.
Sivers is not only an AI-photonics play but also a SATCOM/Wireless play covering defense, 5G/6G, satellite and DoD. They are right in the center of one of the most interesting market sectors at the moment. Interesting times for sure!
This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy, I’m just sharing my thoughts as I am still holding a position since many years back.
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@aleabitoreddit And the crazy part is: its only half of the company
Satcom and defense is the Second accelerator with legacy Players like viasat confirmed them already
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Just in case you were wondering who the end users of $SIVE likely were:
Sivers lasers -> $AMZN (Marvell's 8-K SEC filings).
Amazon has purchase agreements for "photonic fabric" from Celestial, which maps to Sivers lasers through two-hop connections.
Marvell's share value under the agreement was $87/share, so Amazon is very incentivized to buy as much as they can (Marvell is trading at $139+).
These volume orders help $SIVE the most out of this supply chain, given their size.
This is just one-relation to Amazon, I wanted to point out.
But at $720m MC...
Markets missed Sivers as the critical laser supplier for the upcoming hyperscaler optical supercycle based on new architectural changes.
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@scott_m_powell @AST_SpaceMobile Mind a quick stop in Amsterdam? 🥹
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$ASTS IT'S ON!!! We decided to travel to the launch in style in celebration of @AST_SpaceMobile first launch with Blue Origin!! With the delays, my wife can't make the trip....so.....there are 5 open seats on the plane (pic below) If any SpaceMob members need a ride down and back we'll be leaving ILM (Wilmington, NC) Saturday around 1pm with the return dependant on launch but planned for Sunday. My treat! Priority to OG spacemob members and any accounts I interact with. Last minute scramble I know, but hey, it'll be a SpaceMob Air flight!! DM me if interested and I'll provide details!
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@aleabitoreddit 50% of that are algos trying to catch Up their Performance
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How am i getting 5,000 new subscribers every few days?
Genuinely, what is this black magic? Can't believe I have 15,000 paid subscribers now...
Well, my new goal is to be #1 on the entire X platform.
Thank you all, I'll keep pouring out my thoughts to make that $1 worth it.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Honestly... I don't even know at this point? 0 to 155,000+ followers, 10,000 subscribers... in under a year. 900%+ year to date... Off 13+ individual stocks from $AAOI to $LITE hitting triple digits returns in 4 months. Call me aura farming Serenity Jin-woo (last post about this topic i swear, 10,000 just looks cool). Jokes aside, thanks everyone for this opportunity. I genuinely want to make a difference to the retail community. Getting tired of institutions shafting retail or seeing $2000+ paywalls so hope to bridge the gap in information discovery/synthesis.
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Astrabiene retweetledi
$ASTS
All that Amazon has to do is figure out how to copy AST‘s technology, without infringing, then build out huge satellites that actually work, then convince billions of subscribers to switch from their carriers
Easy Peezy
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@ParadisLabs The Point ist that the ai can do a very good overview but if you go deeper it is not able to follow
you need to follow your own common thread
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Also, guys, equity research can sometimes take weeks since I'm doing this all 100% solo lol
Love all the DMs etc, but pls try not to ask for a new set of research everyday haha (love the enthusiasm though!)
I can easily ask Claude to research XYZ stock and copy/paste the output onto X.
Yes, I do use some AI like every analyst/researcher, but there's lots of stuff that it misses and doesn't factor in.
Meaning that a lot of the research process is still kinda manual and time consuming.
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs
Putting the finishing touches to my thesis on a Japanese company that basically has a monopoly on the PCB supply chain. Been focused on Taiwan recently (more Taiwanese research is in the works), but Japan is probably just as juicy? This company is one that I've held a position in since last year, but given the upcoming catalysts around glass core substrates, I've decided to re-look at my thesis and format it up for @X
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@1CoastalJournal Bro is crying because he is Not doing his own research
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Meta just released their AI model.
meta.ai
The benchmarks look very strong. The stock is up 8% today.
$META
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