@HayekAndKeynes It’s always easier to bash the one in charge.
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Brandon Weber
1.2K posts
Brandon Weber
@Atomic_GSol
Markets Group at New York Fed - Treasury RV Strategies - Short Term Interest Rate Derivatives (personal views)
Katılım Kasım 2024
157 Takip Edilen179 Takipçiler
For the life of me I do not understand the people who want to define victory as an unwinnable ground war yet keep calling Trump the moron. He ended Afghanistan, he’s not going to kick off a similar operation next door.
The dude literally erased the leadership (twice), the military, and the US has come out completely unscathed. They have already killed all the staff involved with the nuclear program. Iran’s only response has been to take hostage global oil flows and bomb innocent third parties - even then Trump has not taken the bait. He did as much as he could without causing WWIII and is now leaving without a scratch. If that is not victory, I do not know what is.
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Crazy how vulnerable the US is.
John Quakes@quakes99
⚡️US EIA just released its Q4/2025 Domestic #Uranium Production Report📄🛢️☢️🇺🇸 showing US mined U supply in 2025 rose to just over 2 Million lbs #U3O8🦐 about 4% of US #Nuclear reactor annual fuel requirements of 50 Million lbs🤏🤯🤠🐂#UraniumSqueeze🗜️🌊🏄 eia.gov/uranium/produc…
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@Brad_Setser Thanks.
I partially remember reading Obstfeld (2012), Bordo & McCauley (2016) and Hardie & Maxfield (2016) that discussed fin assets and valuation changes as a bigger driver of the NIIP. Could be wrong.
Also if focus is on trade flows than it’s less important.
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i do need to update this
cfr.org/articles/us-in…
but cumulative current account flows actually tend to drive the NIIP over time; the US net debt position is the sum of current account deficits since 2000 more or less. the equity bit of the NIIP is badly valued and moves with global equity prices, I don't find it that interesting TBH but the data is there
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Happy to welcome the Bank of England to the growing club of "imbalancistas"
Would just note that if they used the 2025 data rather than the 2024, the return of imbalances would be even more apparent. Asia's surplus went up by $600b ...
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi@AmbrogioCB
Global imbalances were meant to be behind us. They are not. This Bank of England Substack summarises new evidence—and why it matters—based on recent work with brilliant colleagues at the Bank: bankofengland.co.uk/bank-insights/…
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Brandon Weber retweetledi
Global imbalances were meant to be behind us. They are not. This Bank of England Substack summarises new evidence—and why it matters—based on recent work with brilliant colleagues at the Bank: bankofengland.co.uk/bank-insights/…
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And we haven’t even started the fiscal stimulus phase yet.
Alberto Alvarez@AAGresearch
The market is beginning to understand This is bullish for almost all commodities
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Trump pumps up and running
Less than 5 hours from this post.
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.
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@TMTLongShort Bye Patagonia vests and button ups
Hello @rhoback and crocs
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Hedge funds get your shit together. First movers will have their pick of talent and late movers will get taxed to death as NY’s budget hole worsens. It’s a cheap hedge.
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort
Regardless of who wins the mayoral race - if you’re a hedge fund or investment bank that is NYC-based it is irresponsible to not have plans for a Miami office in motion. Cheapest and potentially highest-ROI hedge out there.
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@conksresearch @DeepDishEnjoyer Yeah the comments are saturated now savvy trading comeback lines.. shit missed my shot
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@agnostoxxx Invesco is going to make a smart beta ETF off this soon
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@mb_ghalibaf Would you like to be a guest on my podcast and talk about trading strategies?
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Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator.
Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.
See something tomorrow? You know the drill.
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@TMTLongShort Often travel to NYC for work and it’s insane how little my colleagues get and how miserable their commute is.
Unfortunately for us looking for new opportunities, most are still in NYC it appears.
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@DerivativesDon @BlacklionCTA Thanks!
So simply put, buyer needs term funding for 30Y which comes at a premium?
What if most buyers fund o/n?
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It’s absolutely Treasury funding.
ALM manager promise a cash return on a risky index with a guaranteed floor to their customer.
The only way to guarantee the return is by defeasing the rate risk.
ALM manger doesn’t require the cash upfront from the customer
Without that demand for duration, Treasury could not fund a 30yr Treasury without that demand for duration.
But now they need to pay someone to pony up the cash for 30 years . That is the term funding cost for leverage (swap spread).
Intermediation implies no risk taking other than CP risk.
There is real funding risk being taken by whoever provides the cash (at a price - the swap spread).
Swap rate = duration price
Treasury rate = duration price + term funding cost
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Weekend Macro Thread. The big theme is the rates market adjust from the absurd fantasy that the Fed will raise rates into this energy shock to the medium/long-term reality this Iran adventure will have on growth. Beginning with breakevens moderating.
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@BlacklionCTA @DerivativesDon Treasury intermediation costs may be better term.
Idk if funding stress is the best way to put it considering how repo has traded (maybe in CP, FHLB advances?).
Also, esp with shift in policy expectations, how much receiving demand from LDI community is impacting narrowing?
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So, where is the stress showing up in Treasury/funding markets - Swap Spreads @DerivativesDon especially on the long end.
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@DerivativesDon Did our annual ice fishing trip in Canada a month back and caught over 200 jumbo perch.
Can’t wait to retire
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I go fishing for two days and this is wha you all do with the market?
Well, fishing was good.
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Brandon Weber retweetledi
They’ve spammed so much fake news trying to push energy prices down that the market’s just numb now. Keep going, nobody’s buying it anymore.
The real prices will show up anyway.
Powerful? Maybe. But Smart? Not even close. Burned that fake news card way too early.
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Iran also is savvy in digital warfare and cyberspace
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
DOJ OFFICIAL SAYS FBI DIRECTOR'S PERSONAL EMAIL WAS BREACHED BY HACKERS
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Brandon Weber retweetledi
The 60-40 portfolio is poised for its worst monthly loss since 2022.
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