Atul

@saketh1998 Yes everyone is building it these days. You can check mine at vantagecapital.co.in

IMO, monetisation of analytics and data-based platforms is going to hit a wall soon. Vibe coding has made things ridiculously easy today. You don’t really need deep data access or hardcore coding knowledge anymore you can just describe what you want and build usable apps within hours. I’ve been doing this myself for personal use for the past few months. Built a full-fledged backtesting tool for Indian equities, including options backtesting based on time, indicators, and multiple triggers and the results line up almost perfectly with established paid platforms. That’s the bigger point, you can build exactly what you want, the way you want it, and make it behave exactly how you need, the incentive to pay for rigid platforms starts fading. A lot of these scanners and data presentation platforms are going to struggle with monetisation going forward.

@0xChiraag Asset = liability + equity You are adding liability of 98k to asset (1k) Wrong Asset = 97k laptop + 1k cash = 98k Liability = 49k mom + 49k dad = 98k And that’s why double entry book keeping is gold

I borrowed 50k from Dad and 50k from Mum to buy a laptop that costs 97k. After the purchase, I had 3k left. I returned 1k to Dad and 1k to Mum, and I reserved 1k for myself. I now owe Dad 49k and Mum 49k also. 49k + 49k = 98k plus 1k I reserved for myself, which is 99k. So where did 1k go..?

The mathematics behind apps like Shazam:

@thechartist Nice. Is it complete based out of India ? And the results are after handling survivorship bias ? I have my own all weather port which generates 29% with 12% DD but limited to 2015 backtest. Hence curious

@Atul4ward 25 years. -9.6%

All Weather portfolio update. Current drawdown -8.35% which is within the expected return/risk profile. CAGR since release running at +24.2%, which is above the expected return profile. #next1000trades

@abhymurarka The same thing was said during Covid and the same was said during Internet bubbl crash and then again during gulf war

Personal finance is personal, hence I am personally avoiding such all in calls. These are times where no historical patterns or data can be relied on. These are not normal times. Invest as per own risk appetite.

@saketh1998 Are your qualitative factors fundamental driven ?

It’s been 6 months since we started running systematic momentum trades across the entire account. The performance has remained steady, even through a relatively dull market phase. In the last 6 months, the markets have delivered no returns while the portfolio has steadily claimed 14% We recently completed our latest rebalance in the first week of January. As per the new allocation, the portfolio now has higher exposure to financials and midcap banks, along with a balanced mix of auto, pharma, and services.

Someone built Startups.RIP a directory of 5,700+ failed YC startups with post mortems, deep analysis, and rebuild plans so you can revive dead ideas and turn them into new projects.

I have written a full article on the AI chip supply chain. The supply chain is structured into 4 different phases with 13 layers: 1. Raw Materials: $SHECY, $SUOPY, GlobalWafers, $WAF.DE, $SHWDF, $AXTI, $IQE 2. Manufacturing Equipment: $ASML, $ASM.AS, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC 3. EDA & Core Intellectual Property: $SNPS, $CDNS, $ARM, $RMBS 4. Chip Design: $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $QCOM 5. Foundries: $TSM, Samsung Semiconductor, $SMIC 6. Memory and HBM: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, $MU 7. Packaging and OSAT: ASE Technology, $AMKR, JCET Group 8. Server and Rack Integration: $SMCI, $DELL, $HPE, Foxconn 9. Networking Silicon: $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO, $ANET 10. Photonics and Optical Components: Ayar Labs, $ALAB, $CRDO, $COHR, $LITE 11. Power, Thermal management and Grid: $VRT, $MOD, $NVT, $SU.PA, $IREN, $CIFR 12. Hyperscalers: $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META 13. AI Storage, platforms and Data: VAST data, Weka, NetAPP, $PLTR, Blue Yonder, $KXSCF The article covers it all.

If you are making 100 units in India, you are likely to make at least 300 units income in Dubai. Bro what are you smoking. Should I show you a Dubai offer letter . The difference is 1.5x to 2x in best case. And dude housing rental is 50% of income in dubai. You conveniently ignored “cost of living “ expense after which the saving is peanuts. Just to prove a point you are doing some random bs paper maths.

Pull of Dubai in simple language:- Let's say you are an HNI, who makes 100 units of money in India. You pay 35% tax. Use 30% income for living. And, invest the remainder (35%). You grow your portfolio at 12% But again pay 12.5% capital gains. Paying taxes twice hurts. Now, let's run the numbers in Dubai:- If you are making 100 units in India, you are likely to make at least 300 units income in Dubai. You invest 35% of it. And pay 0% capital gains. What happens after 30 years of compounding? 1) Corpus in India: 262 units 2) Corpus in Dubai: 787 units. Difference: almost 3X. There is a reason why the first thing that any rich person does is to optimize for taxes. Allowing wealth building is a smart strategy to grow any country. And, UAE is doing exactly that. ***** Wealth building strategies for HNI/NRI are very different. I share on my own experiences of living/working across different countries as an NRI:- Sign-up for Whatsapp newsletter here: forms.gle/EXHdzKSBqqCgix…

Pershing Square - 2026 Annual Investor Presentation Core Principles: - Simple, predictable, free-cash-flow-generative business  - Formidable barriers to entry  - Limited exposure to extrinsic factors that we cannot control  - Generally, strong financial profile  - Minimal capital markets dependency  - Typically, North American-listed, large-capitalization companies - Fair price “as is”, but a substantial discount to optimized value  - Base case valuation not reliant on future M&A or platform value - In-place or identified management with high degree of integrity, track record of success, and appropriate incentives  - Typically, no controlling shareholder - Must offer highly asymmetric return to compensate for possibility of permanent loss of capital  - Expected to represent a small percentage of fund capital in the aggregate and an appropriate “return on invested brain damage” New Investments: Hertz, Amazon, Meta Exited: Chipotle, CPKC, Nike, Hilton assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/wp-content/upl…

Some noteworthy points from Motilal Oswal 30th wealth creation study : The study aims at building a portfolio that can deliver steady compounding as India GDP quadruples from 4tr yo 16trn by 2040s. The focus is on building a portfolio key considerations as : 1. Focus more on B2C than B2B and B2G. B2B firms with strong moats have better pricing power and customer retention , hence better ROI 2. Preference to be given to sectors with tailwinds , policy and technical tailwinds 3. Preference stocks who enjoy market leadership in such sectors as these sectors have the financial prowess and experience to navigate turbulent times and hence enjoy the steady pool of profits that is yet to come. 4. Steady ROE over 12%-15% - high quality business run by high quality management. 5. Margin of safety : Compounders enjoy price appreciation both from earnings growth and PE rerating. Prefer firms with reasonable price (PE less than NIFTY PE ) 6. Such stocks are really less in number :7-10% of investible universe. Hence due care to be used when picking such stocks. As per the research paper , buy and hold when you find them and revisit once every year. A typical portfolio would contain 20-25 such high quality stocks.

@ShivrattanDhil1 Rejected a job offer in Dubai for this very reason.

Mark my words give it a few years and Dubai will feel like an empty desert filled with buildings. The charm of Atlantis The Palm is fading fast. Visitor numbers are reportedly down by nearly 40%, and the place often feels almost empty now. It’s become a classic case of “been there, done that.” Dubai has turned into a one-time visit destination overpriced, not very family-friendly, and heavily dependent on luxury appeal. Once people check it off their list, they rarely feel the urge to return. Over the years, the excitement has worn off. Today, travelers value money more than ever, choosing simplicity over excess and thinking twice before spending big on luxury. @ATLANTIS @visitdubai @VisitDubai_IN

I just read through the earnings call transcript of $NVO, and these are my notes: Free cash flow and capex Novo expects free cash flow of DKK 35–45bn in 2026, with capex around DKK 55bn. Management stressed that capex is now peaking and has started to come down, with a steeper decline expected in the coming years as large manufacturing and API expansion projects are finalized. Several major API facilities are already coming online this year, with more to follow. Margins Gross margin fell to 81% from 84.7% in 2024. The decline reflects amortization and depreciation from the Catalent manufacturing acquisition, one-off restructuring costs tied to the company-wide transformation, and higher sales, marketing, and early-stage R&D spending linked to Wegovy launches. Operating profit declined 1% in DKK but still grew 6% at constant exchange rates. Management acknowledged that the Wegovy pill has a lower gross margin than the injectable, but emphasized it is still attractive. Price declines U.S. sales declines are driven almost entirely by pricing. Key factors include investments in market access, rapid expansion of the cash-pay channel at lower price points, and the MFN impact, which management reiterated has a low single-digit impact at group level and roughly double that in the U.S. Around 30% of injectable Wegovy prescriptions are now cash-pay, showing a clear volume response to lower prices. Management framed price cuts as a long-term investment to expand access and accelerate volume growth, even if near-term financials suffer. Competition Management described obesity as far more dynamic than traditional prescription markets. While they are confident the market will keep expanding, forecasting is complicated by competitive launches, channel mix shifts, and sourcing dynamics. These variables create both upside and downside uncertainty. Patent expiration risk in international markets Semaglutide loss of exclusivity in international markets is expected to impact group sales by low single digits, with Canada being the largest contributor. The timing of generic approvals in Canada remains uncertain and could move results either above or below current guidance, depending on regulatory pace. Regulatory milestones and launches Novo received FDA approval for the Wegovy pill, the first oral GLP-1 for obesity, and for an updated Ozempic pill formulation (Rybelsus). High-dose Wegovy 7.2 mg is under FDA review with a potential decision in Q1 2026, and management said they are ready to launch immediately upon approval. CagriSema has been submitted to the FDA, with a decision expected around year-end. Additional EU decisions on oral Wegovy and high-dose 7.2 mg injectable Wegovy are expected later this year. Wegovy pill Management repeatedly highlighted the Wegovy pill as one of the strongest pharma launches they’ve seen. Prescriptions reached around 50,000 by late January, with roughly 170,000 patients choosing the pill. Over 45,000 prescriptions were self-pay, and most patients appear to be new to obesity treatment, indicating market expansion rather than switching. Coverage already includes CVS, Prime, Optum, and Anthem, representing just under half the covered lives of injectable Wegovy. Novo said supply is secure and emphasized heavy marketing, partnerships with telehealth platforms, and broad retail availability (70,000 pharmacies). They stressed that weight loss magnitude is the key driver of patient choice. Management contrasted Wegovy pill’s ~16.6% weight loss with competitors around ~12%, arguing that this gap, combined with CV benefits, explains the strong early uptake and supports confidence even once competition arrives. New markets and channels Wegovy launched in 35 new countries in 2025, with sales reaching DKK 28bn, up 134%. International GLP-1 penetration remains low, and Novo expects continued expansion through online channels, partnerships, and new product rollouts. In the U.S., self-pay now accounts for ~30% of injectable Wegovy scripts. Direct-to-patient initiatives, including NovoCare Pharmacy and the Amazon Pharmacy collaboration, are central to the strategy. Medicare Part D coverage via the CMMI pilot is expected to begin mid-year, with modest impact in 2026 and more meaningful upside in 2027. #StocksToWatch #investing

$NVO Novo Nordisk stock has crashed 20% in the last 2 days. Here's everything you need to know:

This is brilliant. Cutting edge tech , efficient supply chain and superb execution round the clock. Quick commerce folks are indeed playing at a different level.

Software is dead (Disclosure I’m short software)

Explains the blood bath in software yesterday. Yday was one of the few days when I couldn’t buy an internet stock cheaper after massive fall due to low confidence on future growth , which as JP Morgan puts is both logical and illogical. If AI fails to deliver on its lofty promises and is rejected by big enterprises, SaaS can be a great reversal sector. Not a buy sell recco.

In short term market is a voting machine and in the long run it is a weighing machine. There is always something to worry about in the markets. Currently the market is worried about STT hike. The market was also worried when the STT was introduced and so it was when LTCG was introduced. Yet despite all these noises , market has given 11-12% CAGR. Use the bear market to learn and learn. Remain invested.