The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
Our 5th warning:
The bond market crisis is intensifying.
The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025.
After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today.
As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable.
We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market.
Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out.
We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs.
Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.