Avocado Capital

@Jake___Barfield @MikeFritzell Are they good w/ global equities v TIKR? I'm thinking about switching.

@MikeFritzell Just realized that I am on Fiscal's legacy plus subscription so maybe I have more features than is currently offered.

@BryanGreenbaum I assume it's because of this: finance.yahoo.com/quote/NG%3DF/

Why is $NC up 6%???

$3023.T (Rasa Corp) | Up around ~30% past 2 days likely due to being promoted as a rare earth play. They make very little money in this segment, but fascinating to see a company I follow become a meme stock. It's now pretty fairly valued at ~1.15X book but now has a meme element.

FY 2025 Performance: 18.53%. Comparison is the thief of joy. Somewhat dissapointed I'm essentially tracking the S&P, but absolute numbers were decent. $BUKS $MEDP (sold) $CRAWA were notable performers. Asian stocks look interesting.

@matthewstoller @davesneem1 That’s not how it works…

@davesneem1 If iRobot had told a judge 'we'll go under if we can't sell the company' the judge would have allowed the sale. That's how antitrust law works. I don't know why you're so averse to the rule of law.

There was no U.S. challenge to the iRobot-Amazon merger.

@stevehou @profplum99 His analysis assumes that the grandparents or other relatives won't contribute in any way, which I find very weird. If you have a family network, you can almost always cut back on childcare costs if you so wish.

I’m genuinely bothered by this “$140k national poverty line” thing. The biggest ticket item in @profplum99’s simple arithmetic of survival is $32,773 childcare. If you are paying that much for childcare, it’s not really a case of poverty as much as socioeconomic policy failure esp labor policy in dense urban centers. What this article spells out isn’t really a poverty or even inflation problem but a textbook case of the “Baumol disease”: the labor intensive low productivity services sectors like childcare, education, and healthcare go up sharply in costs even as the real prices manufactured goods and mass produced food fall sharply! Yes, the “participation ticket” to middle class life (raising kids, staying healthy, getting to work) is now dominated by stagnant-sector services whose relative costs have skyrocketed. But two young adults and two kids getting by on $140k total income isn’t “poverty”. In all likelihood, on $140k you’d have air-conditioning, smartphones, decent cars, medical insurance through work, and access to decent cheap clothes, appliances, and furniture. Ofc this is really a basic needs budget for two young adults and two babies. Now what about two older adults and two college entering kids? Or two adults living in rough neighborhoods and bad public schools and wanting better private school education for their two school age kids? OTOH, if you are DINK (double income no kids), which indeed increasingly many are, you are even modestly comfortable and able to afford some vacation and regular eating out. That’s not “poverty” by any typical definition. So the core problem that Mike Green spelled out in his now viral article really isn’t “poverty” but a case of socioeconomic imbalance as productivity stagnant services comprise an ever larger share of modern life and we lack the institutions to service it. That’s what led to the demand for undocumented immigration and cheap labor, which in turn became the biggest rallying cry for populism backlash. People want cheaper labor intensive services, but don’t want cheaper labor. So we must be willing to accept 1) more socialized less efficient solutions; 2) using less of such services; 3) paying more for such services by consuming less elsewhere. Regardless, redefining the national poverty line and providing typical poverty assistance would be exactly the wrong and futile way to address it as it fundamentally misdiagnoses the core problem. I don’t mean to by any means dismiss the importance of the issue. Clearly it resonated widely for a reason: it’s a genuine problem! But the correct diagnosis is a first step towards a real cure!

@vanckzhu I sold at 5K thinking I’m a genius. Incredible.

Aight nvm, don’t necessarily need to tour the factory. Just keep going pls and thx $7409.T

Here's more commentary on the business: "it's growing, and it's growing fast ... it's already a double-digit increase v. last year and more to come."

$GTX | is now apparently also an AI play. Its turbos are also used for generating backup power for data centers, and sales are hitting $100mm/year. An article or two may pop up in the next few weeks -- who knows?

@MikeyHike @fabreres Think this is why it’s trading so poorly. It’s a real possibility that FIRB attaches conditions, and if so Cosette may have an avenue to get out despite having to act “reasonably” against any such request. And it’s harder to attach probabilities to this making it a bit scary.

@fabreres My view is that FIRB will issue some conditions for this to close.

$MYX.AX: Part I of a thread considering grounds for appeal. I’ll summarise the judgement sequentially with [paras.]. Again, this is only to kick the tyres on my own rationale; you’d all be forgiven for ignoring what follows as academic / not relevant /1

$PGR Seems like an overreaction to me. Doubled my shares with an expectation that this recovers somewhat (but not fully). Very short-term trade, but it seems like the right play.

@profplum99 @dampedspring @JG_Nuke Well, ultimately I think this gets struck down in court because the power technically should lie with Congress, but who knows.

@Avocado_Capital @dampedspring @JG_Nuke Yeah, we’ll have to see. But fewer applications will reduce the odds you lose in the lottery.

Again, how about a balanced take? In order to apply for most jobs, young people growing up in America have to complete a four year application process and pay roughly $100K in fees.

@profplum99 @dampedspring @JG_Nuke And it looks like it's going to be an ANNUAL $100K fee. lol.

@profplum99 @dampedspring @JG_Nuke If you're so concerned about the tech industry being dominated by Indians/Chinese, put an H1B cap on Indians and Chinese. Or a salary cap. Why an egregious fee? That's just killing the program.

@SchrodingersAlt @dampedspring @JG_Nuke @profplum99 1. This is a 2020 submission, you had to go back 5 years 2. This was a certified application, not an approval. Certifications get aggregated on sites like this, but that doesn't mean they're approved. USCIS won't approve an H1B cashier job.

@dampedspring @JG_Nuke @profplum99 “A non issue.” “H1B visas only go to jobs Americans are not qualified for!!!”

@dampedspring @profplum99 @JG_Nuke Who have spent hundreds of thousands of $ in tuition and living expenses. You're essentially kicking all of them out, and blocking any additional students from coming in. You're killing an entire education industry and only helping EU and Asia by slowing down their brain drain.

@dampedspring @profplum99 @JG_Nuke Also I don't know what a "balanced take" means, but a 100K fee on H1B visa application effectively kills 99% of applications. You have students now who have studied and invested in American high schools and universities for 8-9 years ...