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Well folks, I'm going to be changing up this account. Focus more on all my other investments and less on $BTC and crypto. Eventually probably changing the profile name too.
The fact is nothing has made sense to me in the crypto realm since the Dec 2024 rally. The action on $BTC and $ETH was strange all of 2025, the highs driven more by treasuries than anything else, while all other Alts were in a deep bear market that just continues. Anyone that says 'Oct 2025 was the top' is ignoring almost all true topping indicators.
Pretty much since Dec 2024, anything I predict in the crypto realm is just off. Nothing is following any normal support structures, fibs, anything. No influencer has any real idea what is going on - the crypto content on X has just continued to decline for over a year now. And since the 10/10 liquidation, its just a trail of carnage through the sector that no one can really explain - why has $BTC literally decoupled from everything?
The rest of my investments are doing fine. Some are boring, but they're consistent. There are plenty of sectors with great returns and volatility if I need excitement. Why invest time and energy reading about crypto when any exchange can just blow up everything on a random Saturday? The supply/demand mechanics are totally out of whack and make zero sense. The manipulation is so out of control. The risk vrs. reward ratio is pretty much gone. There is no reason to chase a random coin when you can buy a stock instead.
No, I'm not capitulating. I've slowly reduced my crypto exposure by about 30% over the last 6 months. I have plenty of exposure that I'll just keep for the future. A bag of $BTC and Alts (<5% of port) that I'll just leave. Some treasuries. A decent stake in $BMNR since i like it for options. And just focus my energy elsewhere.
Will things change in the crypto realm? Eventually. Wall St firms have churned out all these products and they need to sell them. Letting things dump forever doesn't allow Wall St to make money. When will they allow money to flow back in? Who knows. I'm not going to bother to predict. No one has been right and no one will continue to be right. If you read X, $BTC could be $150K in a couple weeks or it could be $50K. I could see either happening the way things have been. Why bother with it - its just not worth it. My time is better spent doing something else.
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