
Bitcoin’s price drivers are changing. A new paper, "From Network Fundamentals to Macro-Financial Integration: The Evolving Predictability of Bitcoin Returns," by Rafael Palazzi (University of Sao Paulo), Gerson de Souza Raimundo Júnior (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro), and Marcelo Cabus Klotzle (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro), shows how return predictability has shifted from on-chain fundamentals toward macro and financial markets as Bitcoin has matured.
The authors find that metrics such as the market-to-realized value ratio, funding rates, and open interest still matter in every regime. But after 2019, stocks, rates, and volatility increasingly shape Bitcoin’s returns, especially during stress periods such as 2022–23.
This matters because it shows Bitcoin is no longer a fully isolated asset. Bitcoin still runs on internal cycles, but it now plugs into global liquidity and risk conditions when markets are under pressure.
See the full paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
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