Bodya
670 posts

Bodya
@BTokarcuk
Polymarket Influencer @Polymarket
WEB 3.0 Katılım Kasım 2021
76 Takip Edilen330 Takipçiler

We are launching real play (with low bet limits) for testing.
-Follow @crabsino_io
-Register and test the games on crabsino.io
-Drop the wallet you used to register in the comments
Random tester gets 1 sol tomorrow
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I've been sitting in memes for a long time and I've noticed a similarity with @Polymarket
Dependence on narratives, liquidity, and news -> everything is based on people and their money.
In memes you can catch a life change. @Polymarket has the same properties, think about it

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New fast flip opportunity on @Polymarket
"Maduro out by January 31, 2026" - YES
R/R is good here. We all heard about lots of Trump's activity against Maduro
· Trump ordered a "total and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela
· Over 28 lethal strikes on "narco-vessels" near the Venezuelan coast
· US forces have already seized multiple tankers (the Skipper, the Centuries and Bella 1)
· The reward for information leading to Maduro's arrest has been doubled to $50,000,000
polymarket.com/event/maduro-o…
Polymarket's odds are currently at 15c, every time a tanker is seized, the price spikes by ~50%+. With another 30+ sanctioned vessels still in the region, the next seizion is just a matter of days
I see here another tanker's capture/any other news from Trump to exit for 2-3x. We have more than a mouth for our bet and any news can pump it for at least 50%
Your thoughts?


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Super Bowl 2026 Odds on Polymarket: Who will lift the cup?
Which team will you choose this season? Drop your pick.
I’ll be supporting team Seattle.
Current Top on Polymarket:
Los Angeles R: 15%
Seattle: 13%
Buffalo: 13%
Philadelphia: 9%
@Polymarket @NFL #SuperBowl2026

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I look at La Liga as a market, not as a football.
@Polymarket has already set expectations:
• Barcelona — ~59%
• Real Madrid — ~37%
From the point of view of probabilities, Barca looks like a more stable asset: stable shape, fewer sharp drawdowns, predictable scoring dynamics.
Real Madrid is a high upside, but also a high risk. If you evaluate the situation coldly, without fanaticism, Barcelona now looks like an EV+ choice.
My choice is Barcelona

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@BlameEV @mahera777 @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket @Lighter_xyz I totally agree, I wrote my own thread about it, you can read it
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Lighter TGE this year?
A new transaction just moved 150M $LIT to a Coinbase wallet.
@mahera777 did a really solid, detailed piece of research — and a lot of it points to a TGE this year, but for some reason I’m not buying it.
As of the 22nd, we have:
Coinbase adding LIT to the roadmap + a corresponding “prep” transfer
3 premkts on Extended, Hyperliquid, and Pacifica — valuing it at $3.5B
An airdrop form with a deadline on the 25th
Polymarket odds heavily favoring a launch this year
That “insider” bet on a Dec 29 launch
To me, none of this is actually strong evidence.
The Coinbase transfer looks more like tokens allocated for a sale — the partnership and early announcements fit that narrative perfectly.
“Insider” Polymarket bets feel like nothing more than market manipulation to profit off trusting degens.
No concrete dates, listings, official statements — nothing. Just pure New Year airdrop hopium, and I don’t believe it.
So I’m betting Lighter doesn’t launch this year.
Most likely it’s week 1–2 of January — definitely not December.
What do you think? Will the listing be a Christmas gift, or is there just no way they pull it off in the remaining days?

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@BTokarcuk @Polymarket @zscdao @PolymarketTrade @Lighter_xyz @lightercis @coinbase Good analysis, buddy, whether you're right or wrong, we'll find out very soon!
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Thread about the Lighter token ($LIT)
Today I want to talk about Lighter and why, in my opinion, this is one of the most overpriced bets on @Polymarket.
I’ll explain why $LIT will NOT have a TGE before January 1, 2026 👇

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@LevchenkoInvest @Polymarket @zscdao @PolymarketTrade @Lighter_xyz @lightercis @coinbase Time will tell who was right
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@BTokarcuk @Polymarket @zscdao @PolymarketTrade @Lighter_xyz @lightercis @coinbase nah i think $lit tge happens end of december
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let’s take a challenge
10$ in 10.000$
less than 3 month
only on @Polymarket and its tools

mrako く億@mrakold
too many talks about Lighter airdrop in CT in my opinion 88% not a very fair assessment and that’s why > -team has active meat ups until this year -still no tokenomics -there are not all spot pairs added for now this high probability is built because of: - mystical insiders (which has in “YES” and in “NO” bets on @Polymarket) - CEO worlds about TGE on Christmas (late december) -contract -coinbase roadmap (monad had tge after 3 weeks) obviously fair percentage should be 65-70% as for me interested in you opinion
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Prediction markets are no longer niche - they’re becoming the backbone of how we understand collective intelligence.
Polymarket is leading this revolution, turning insights into tradable outcomes.
Are you ready to see where the crowd thinks the market is headed next?
#Polymarket

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@andrewseyfang @Lighter_xyz @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Brother, I'm not sure if they'll make it out in time.
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Lighter $LIT Airdrop Incoming - Holidays About to Get LIT! Huge update from @Lighter_xyz: The long-awaited airdrop tab is LIVE!
No more delays – signals converging on late December (27-31). If you're farming points, lock in your wallets by the 26th! @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade


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I’ve already taken my position.
If you want to trade this market as well, Polymarket is here:
polymarket.com/?via=Btokarcuk
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My bet
>1kkk FDV - NO NO NO
polymarket.com/event/lighter-…
Polymarket rules say:
“If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to ‘No’.”
So I’m not betting on FDV < $1B.
I’m betting that $LIT simply won’t launch this year.
⚠️ Don’t go all-in — only risk what you can afford.
Either:
• I get paid on New Year’s Eve,
• or the airdrop will more than cover the loss.
Good luck to everyone
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