Balaji

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Balaji

Balaji

@balajis

Author of the Network State. Founder of the Network School.

The Network School Katılım Kasım 2013
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Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
Billions of dollars. Millions of followers. Thousands of attendees. Half a dozen governments. And one idea whose time has come.
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a16z
a16z@a16z·
.@balajis says AI verification is much harder in the digital world than it is for the physical world: "AI for the physical world is very verifiable because the thing is, the digital world is fundamentally decentralized in a way the physical world isn't." "There's only one physical world. You can say: did the AI move this box from this pallet to that pallet? That is something where you can probably get it to 100% over time." "By contrast, in the digital world, there are all these people who live in their own constructed environments." "How do you know when you're done with your to-do list? That's harder. Those things are fuzzier."
a16z@a16z

"AI doesn't take your job. AI makes you the CEO." Balaji Srinivasan joins a16z’s Erik Torenberg for a conversation on the future of the AI economy, decentralization, and how work changes in an AI-native world, including: - How distillation and open source could decentralize AI power - Why AI lowers the cost of creation but raises the cost of verification - The shift from global internet to “trusted tribes” and private AI - Why humans are the sensor and AI is the actuator 00:00 Intro 02:06 Why you want AI inside the trusted tribe, not outside it 05:35 The Problem with AI slop 09:25 Where AI works 17:08 "AI can't read your mind, but it can read your body." 30:10 "AI doesn't take your job. AI makes you the CEO." 46:01 The SaaSpocalypse: Real or overblown? 49:19 What happens if AI companies get bigger than governments? @balajis @eriktorenberg

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Crémieux
Crémieux@cremieuxrecueil·
Someone made a global map of gas price increases since the Iran War began. Take a look:
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Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
No, the new San Francisco. This video gives the gist. The one caveat is that it may come across as more "founder" focused than we really are. There are tech companies at NS, but in practice we're building a tech community.
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Balaji@balajis·
Network School is growing. Come visit us at ns.com.
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Balaji@balajis·
Yes. Most likely they’ll need to find a new country, or combination of countries, to give them some economic and diplomatic leverage against a militarily stronger Iran. They have money and smart leaders. They will probably figure it out. Because that’s still better than the status quo of getting bombed daily, or the even worse scenario of entering a giant unwinnable war.
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Abhijit Iyer-Mitra
Abhijit Iyer-Mitra@Iyervval·
Counter … historically GCC states have settled for tactical peace even if it leads to strategic headaches. They won’t agree to remove US bases immediately but they’re shaken to their core by essentially being treated as second tier allies compared to Israel. No aegis systems or CVNs being rushed to protect them, despite them being much bigger economical and financial drivers compared to Israel. Also given that regime change seems unlikely, they’ll also be thinking about insulating themselves from round 3.
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Saagar Enjeti
Saagar Enjeti@esaagar·
The main reason I am skeptical the unilateral TACO can hold is precisely because the strategic logic for the GCC countries now is to go all in: They see a muscular Iranian controlled Strait as existential This further aligns Gulf and Israeli interests to escalate the war
Alex Ward@alexbward

“The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks.” wsj.com/world/middle-e…

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Balaji@balajis·
This may be what happens. America pulls out and stops wasting its blood and treasure in the Middle East. Then dozens of nations form a diplomatic (not military) coalition to reopen the Strait on acceptable terms. With the war over, it’ll be difficult for Iran to charge exorbitant fees to so many neutral nations of Europe and Asia. But regardless, the result will be that everyone just pays for their own security.
Financial Times@FT

Breaking news: The UK will host talks this week aimed at forming a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as countries respond to Donald Trump’s threat to wind down the Iran conflict without securing the vital waterway ft.trib.al/pDbYVtz

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Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
This could be the offramp the world needs. You can think of it as the best outcome for everyone, under the circumstances. (1) From MAGA’s perspective, if Trump declares victory here and moves on, the US won’t waste yet more blood and treasure in the Middle East. It won’t invade Iran. It also won’t take all the blame for the ongoing global supply chain crisis. It just pulls out and lets everyone work out the regional security equation for themselves. Trump can say he’s fulfilled both his campaign promises: stop Iran from getting a nuke, but also no endless Middle Eastern wars. (2) From Israel’s perspective, Iran has now been shown to be quite hostile to its neighbors, and its military has been substantially degraded. Stopping now is good. Otherwise there’s a danger of overreacting to Oct 7 as Americans overreacted to Sept 11. Israel can stand back and call it a win, because after a US pullout, Iran will have much less excuse for holding the Strait hostage. (3) From the Iranian diaspora’s perspective, it’s unfortunately clear that the current war isn’t going to result in liberalization. Further attacks would push Iran further into fundamentalism, making it even harder to eventually do a liberal reformation. (4) From the long-suffering Iranian people’s perspective, ending the war now would also save countless lives. Otherwise they’ll get hit by friendly fire and drafted by the regime to fight for fundamentalism. (5) Finally, from the world’s perspective, once the US declares victory and goes home, substantial diplomatic pressure will be applied to Iran to simply open the Strait of Hormuz and allow ships through. Iran’s leadership has shown, perhaps surprisingly, that they care about global public opinion…and they would be on the hook for the suffering of billions of people if the Strait remains blocked. TLDR: if Trump declares victory and leaves, Iran no longer has any excuse for blocking the Strait and holding the global economy hostage. Let the matter be worked out diplomatically with pressure from all the 100+ affected countries on Iran. America shouldn’t have to spend a single cent more, or send a single soldier more, to the Middle East.
The White House@WhiteHouse

“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you…” - President Donald J. Trump

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Balaji@balajis·
I don’t know if it’ll scale to the entire US, which is today unfortunately better conceptualized as the Disunited Tribes of North America. However, for a reasonably sized but otherwise ignored* metro area, his case study is worth looking at. * ignored is important. Easier to go Bukele in an area elites don’t care about, like the Rust Belt. Hard in NYC.
Balaji@balajis

BUILD THE SWITCH Ok. I see the “just flip the switch” thing a lot now from the right. But while I’m sympathetic to the desire for law and order, and agree that is a direction worth pursuing, there’s an illusion that should be addressed. Leftists think you can get money without working for it. Just flip the switch on the money printer. Just flip the switch to tax the rich. But in reality, resources are scarce. Rightists often similarly think you can get political power without working for it. Just flip the switch to throw the criminals in jail. But in reality, votes (or political supporters in general) are scarce just like resources are. So the hard part is the invisible part of building that political base. Why were those criminal gangs on the streets of El Salvador? Because they had a drug dealer business model, and because Western leftists were paid by NGOs to support them. They were actually politically powerful. Thus, what was needed to disrupt them? A better political business model, one that actually generated more political support than the legacy model. The Internet was critical for this, as it allowed Bukele to build an audience with social media, align with Western centrists, conservatives, and libertarians via Bitcoin, recruit tech companies to El Salvador, and directly rebut anarchy-spreading Western leftist NGOs through a channel they couldn’t censor. There’s way more to it than that, but the point is: there was no switch that Bukele inherited to flip, anymore than Elon inherited the switch to launch a SpaceX rocket. Bukele essentially had to build a new state from scratch, via the Internet. A new state that was loyal to the people of El Salvador rather than the criminal gangs. This was nontrivial. He had to build the switch.

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Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
@jkrajewski See this thread for three concrete examples of where provable timestamps alone overturned false stories. The key is that a collection of onchain facts establishes a historical record that can be reasoned over and verified against.
Balaji@balajis

@michaelbd Here's a good example of how something as simple as timestamp prevented unnecessary conflict from spiraling out of control. twitter.com/balajis/status…

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John Krajewski
John Krajewski@jkrajewski·
@balajis Can someone explain what putting a news story on the blockchain does that's any different than a regular website? It can still be fake/AI exactly as easily, ledger of record adds nothing.
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Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
I agree with all this. However, we do have an issue that we’ll need to address with cryptography and AI. While legacy media was on the back foot from 2022-2025, thanks to Elon uncensoring X and permitting basic truths to be voiced…the combination of AI fakery and ideological filter bubbles has recently allowed the journos to regain some ground. Some outlets have pulled back on extreme wokeness to start reporting facts, particularly on the war, that users are citing because their presence at a legacy outlet’s URL indicates implicitly that they aren’t AI. In other words, AI is, in part, subsidizing legacy written news media at the expense of social media. Even as AI is disrupting Hollywood fiction, it’s increasing demand for verifiable facts. So the journos are adapting, and dialing down a decade of wokeness in an attempt to regain their role as arbiters of fact. We can and will respond, but the journo adaptation is to be expected. A truly committed rival rarely simply goes down for the count. And the journos have been pushing communist revolution since John Reed, Walter Duranty, Edgar Snow, and Herbert Matthews. We have to realize that the verbal political journalist is essentially the ancient class enemy of the mathematical technocapitalist. And so the journo’s goal in the next cycle is to just dispense with pretense and flat out expropriate the fortunes of technocapitalists. Hence the Californian, Bernie, Warren, and European wealth taxes. In this they will be aided by this disastrous war, by the scarcity and seizures it will drive, by the general anti-AI backlash, and by the specific issue I just mentioned of verifiable digital facts. Now, there are technical and social countermeasures to this issue. It starts with establishing a higher standard of cryptographic truth, with verifiable chain-of-custody for digital facts. It includes funding citizen journalists around the world to write to a ledger of record. And it requires a higher purpose than mere political combat. But the point is that winning this next cycle will require more than simply going direct. We’ll need to regain the factual high ground in the age of AI. I know we can do that because cryptography will always be more reliable than a mere media corporation. But we have to do it.
@jason@Jason

Founders: take my advice... do not talk to the press, go direct and do long-form podcasts. Wired and the NYT are as biased as Fox News and MSNOW these days This is a function of their need to pander to one side to survive, be it through $ 3-a-month subs or rage-baiting ad-based stories. Attacking tech gets views (see Karen Swisher)... and views get advertisers (paradoxically, tech advertisers support the folks trashing tech! let that sink in!) Founders: If you talk to the NYT or WIRED, they will trash and misrepresent you 95% of the time in order to get more subscribers and page views It is what it is...

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Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
@MattZeitlin Good question. Short answer is that it already kind of has, but only in the context of what’s called “onchain analysis” for financial facts. The generalization beyond that is now both technologically feasible and also socially necessary…
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Matthew Zeitlin
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin·
@balajis why do you think cryptographically verifiable assertion hasn't taken off yet? even if it's hard to do with facts, it seems like it could happen with images and videos, where the fakery problem is most acute and potentially damaging
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Matthew Zeitlin
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin·
interesting post by balaji, who says that "the verbal political journalist is...the ancient class enemy of the mathematical technocapitalist," but also that because of the proliferation of AI slop, mainstream media's credibility has actually increased as providers of facts
Matthew Zeitlin tweet media
Balaji@balajis

I agree with all this. However, we do have an issue that we’ll need to address with cryptography and AI. While legacy media was on the back foot from 2022-2025, thanks to Elon uncensoring X and permitting basic truths to be voiced…the combination of AI fakery and ideological filter bubbles has recently allowed the journos to regain some ground. Some outlets have pulled back on extreme wokeness to start reporting facts, particularly on the war, that users are citing because their presence at a legacy outlet’s URL indicates implicitly that they aren’t AI. In other words, AI is, in part, subsidizing legacy written news media at the expense of social media. Even as AI is disrupting Hollywood fiction, it’s increasing demand for verifiable facts. So the journos are adapting, and dialing down a decade of wokeness in an attempt to regain their role as arbiters of fact. We can and will respond, but the journo adaptation is to be expected. A truly committed rival rarely simply goes down for the count. And the journos have been pushing communist revolution since John Reed, Walter Duranty, Edgar Snow, and Herbert Matthews. We have to realize that the verbal political journalist is essentially the ancient class enemy of the mathematical technocapitalist. And so the journo’s goal in the next cycle is to just dispense with pretense and flat out expropriate the fortunes of technocapitalists. Hence the Californian, Bernie, Warren, and European wealth taxes. In this they will be aided by this disastrous war, by the scarcity and seizures it will drive, by the general anti-AI backlash, and by the specific issue I just mentioned of verifiable digital facts. Now, there are technical and social countermeasures to this issue. It starts with establishing a higher standard of cryptographic truth, with verifiable chain-of-custody for digital facts. It includes funding citizen journalists around the world to write to a ledger of record. And it requires a higher purpose than mere political combat. But the point is that winning this next cycle will require more than simply going direct. We’ll need to regain the factual high ground in the age of AI. I know we can do that because cryptography will always be more reliable than a mere media corporation. But we have to do it.

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Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
BUILD THE SWITCH Ok. I see the “just flip the switch” thing a lot now from the right. But while I’m sympathetic to the desire for law and order, and agree that is a direction worth pursuing, there’s an illusion that should be addressed. Leftists think you can get money without working for it. Just flip the switch on the money printer. Just flip the switch to tax the rich. But in reality, resources are scarce. Rightists often similarly think you can get political power without working for it. Just flip the switch to throw the criminals in jail. But in reality, votes (or political supporters in general) are scarce just like resources are. So the hard part is the invisible part of building that political base. Why were those criminal gangs on the streets of El Salvador? Because they had a drug dealer business model, and because Western leftists were paid by NGOs to support them. They were actually politically powerful. Thus, what was needed to disrupt them? A better political business model, one that actually generated more political support than the legacy model. The Internet was critical for this, as it allowed Bukele to build an audience with social media, align with Western centrists, conservatives, and libertarians via Bitcoin, recruit tech companies to El Salvador, and directly rebut anarchy-spreading Western leftist NGOs through a channel they couldn’t censor. There’s way more to it than that, but the point is: there was no switch that Bukele inherited to flip, anymore than Elon inherited the switch to launch a SpaceX rocket. Bukele essentially had to build a new state from scratch, via the Internet. A new state that was loyal to the people of El Salvador rather than the criminal gangs. This was nontrivial. He had to build the switch.
Wolf Tivy@wolftivy

What's interesting about Bukele's rule is that it's all so obvious. You can just flip the switch and make your country powerful, be beloved by the people, get rich, etc. That this is not widely regarded as something worth striving for shows a deep sickness in Western politics.

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Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
To be clear, I think I was one of the earliest (perhaps the earliest) proponent of going direct in tech. And that was the right strategy in 2020. But 2026 is a different media environment, rife with AI fakery and filter bubbles. Now we need to not just go direct. We need to cryptographically prove correct.
Balaji@balajis

Expect much more of this. Why give free content in the form of quotes & interviews to media corporations? Every content deal is a business relationship, down to the individual quote. If it doesn’t make sense, just go direct. Build your own distribution to avoid distortion.

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TFTC
TFTC@TFTC21·
Balaji: "Keynesianism is like communism but for wimps... Soviet communism had to send guys with guns house to house to steal 10% of all property. American Keynesianism just hits a button, inflates the money supply, and nobody feels it."
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Balaji
Balaji@balajis·
AI is a shortcut. So it’s useful. But it’s lazy. So it speeds execution. But it hides complexity. So you want to use it. But definitely not overuse it. So the user of AI often loves it. But the reader of AI often hates it.
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a16z
a16z@a16z·
Balaji Srinivasan on taking the L to set up for the W: "Before Satya Nadella took over Microsoft, it was losing on mobile to iOS and Android." "He took the L... and he said, 'You know what? Linux is there. Linux is not going to go away.'" "We're going to run Linux on Microsoft hardware." "Mobile is not going away and nobody's installing the Microsoft mobile OS." "So we're going to allow Word and PowerPoint and Excel to run on iOS and Android devices." "And... the browser isn't going away. So we're going to make Office 365 work in the cloud." "Because he took the L, Satya set Microsoft up for the W." @balajis with @PeterMcCormack
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