@gregisenberg Can great companies be formed by 'vibe coding them in a day and seeing what sticks'? I highly doubt it. There's gonna be an endless ocean of competitors if you're doing this.
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John Krajewski
860 posts
John Krajewski
@jkrajewski
CEO of DreamForge and Strange Loop Games, Creator of Eco
Miami Katılım Mart 2009
289 Takip Edilen843 Takipçiler
things keeping me up at night about where AI is actually going:
1. "ambient businesses" are coming. basically, agents monitor the market, handle customers, execute decisions. you check in every few days. 7-8 figure businesses with almost no daily human input. we're early but it's happening.
2. you can now build a company in an hour. grab an idea, vibe code it, add stripe, get a customer. the old timeline was 12 months to first revenue. that's just gone.
3. the internet went app store era → API economy → agent economy. we're now in the part where agents hire other agents on the fly. fixed tech stacks are dissolving. nobody's built the glassdoor for AI agents yet.
4. vertical AI is replacing headcount. that's 10x the market that vertical SaaS ever touched. boring industries like insurance, construction, legal, elder care are the goldmine.
5. SaaS pricing is flipping from per seat to per result. someone is going to build a billion dollar business just by converting legacy SaaS companies to outcome based pricing
6. a whole graveyard of generic SaaS is coming. basic CRMs, analytics dashboards, template marketplaces, scheduling tools. agents just do it better. lots of incumbent saas that are generic and not reinventing themselves right now will struggle/reprice.
7. "human made" is becoming the new luxury. porsche already ran a 100% human made ad campaign. no AI is going to be a premium label like organic is for food. there's a real business in that certification.
8. IRL is having a renaissance. when everything is AI generated, being in a room with other humans becomes scarce. karaoke bars, escape rooms, live music, co-working. the experience economy is accelerating.
9. founder market fit is dead. founder agent fit is what matters now. can you direct a fleet of agents like a film director? that's the new unfair advantage.
10. ghost team org charts are coming. two real people, twelve agents with names, faces, personalities. your about page is going to look the same
11. 1000 true fans is now 100. agents cut your costs so much that 100 customers at $500/mo is a real solo business. micro monopolies across multiple niches. this is the playbook.
12. context window poisoning is the new phishing. cybersecurity hasn't caught up. agents have access to your files, email, bank accounts. bad things are going to happen. it's also a massive startup opportunity.
13. the window is open for maybe 12-24 months. then the moats get built like data, brand, trust, network
14. build cost is basically zero. audiences are underpriced. niches are wide open.
idk about you but i'm not sleeping much
so much opportunity
this is the most asymmetric time to be building a startup.
full episode on @startupideaspod to get your creative juices flowing (latest episode get it where you listen/watch pods)
no advertisers, just pure ideas to help you
im rooting for you
don't just bookmark share with a friend
watch
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whats the real world use case?
Say someone puts their video on the blockchain to establish a timestamp.
It doesnt mean they made the video (no provenance). They could have got it from somewhere else.
Always see people talking about how blockchain is gonna make data verifiable but it just lets you verify some arbitrary timestamp from someone who held the data at one time, which is virtually worthless information.
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Right — blockchain doesn’t make arbitrary data true.
What it does is create a shared, tamper-resistant substrate for provenance, attestations, incentives, and coordination. That lets ecosystems verify and reuse state collectively instead of re-verifying it in fragmented silos over and over again.
The breakthrough is not authenticity from a timestamp. It’s scalable trust infrastructure.
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I agree with all this.
However, we do have an issue that we’ll need to address with cryptography and AI.
While legacy media was on the back foot from 2022-2025, thanks to Elon uncensoring X and permitting basic truths to be voiced…the combination of AI fakery and ideological filter bubbles has recently allowed the journos to regain some ground.
Some outlets have pulled back on extreme wokeness to start reporting facts, particularly on the war, that users are citing because their presence at a legacy outlet’s URL indicates implicitly that they aren’t AI.
In other words, AI is, in part, subsidizing legacy written news media at the expense of social media. Even as AI is disrupting Hollywood fiction, it’s increasing demand for verifiable facts.
So the journos are adapting, and dialing down a decade of wokeness in an attempt to regain their role as arbiters of fact.
We can and will respond, but the journo adaptation is to be expected. A truly committed rival rarely simply goes down for the count. And the journos have been pushing communist revolution since John Reed, Walter Duranty, Edgar Snow, and Herbert Matthews. We have to realize that the verbal political journalist is essentially the ancient class enemy of the mathematical technocapitalist.
And so the journo’s goal in the next cycle is to just dispense with pretense and flat out expropriate the fortunes of technocapitalists. Hence the Californian, Bernie, Warren, and European wealth taxes. In this they will be aided by this disastrous war, by the scarcity and seizures it will drive, by the general anti-AI backlash, and by the specific issue I just mentioned of verifiable digital facts.
Now, there are technical and social countermeasures to this issue. It starts with establishing a higher standard of cryptographic truth, with verifiable chain-of-custody for digital facts. It includes funding citizen journalists around the world to write to a ledger of record. And it requires a higher purpose than mere political combat.
But the point is that winning this next cycle will require more than simply going direct. We’ll need to regain the factual high ground in the age of AI. I know we can do that because cryptography will always be more reliable than a mere media corporation.
But we have to do it.
@jason@Jason
Founders: take my advice... do not talk to the press, go direct and do long-form podcasts. Wired and the NYT are as biased as Fox News and MSNOW these days This is a function of their need to pander to one side to survive, be it through $ 3-a-month subs or rage-baiting ad-based stories. Attacking tech gets views (see Karen Swisher)... and views get advertisers (paradoxically, tech advertisers support the folks trashing tech! let that sink in!) Founders: If you talk to the NYT or WIRED, they will trash and misrepresent you 95% of the time in order to get more subscribers and page views It is what it is...
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@balajis @jkrajewski Beyond just timestamping stories, applying blockchain to real-world assets forces us to rethink data verification at scale. The upshot: transforming entire economic ecosystems with verified, meaningful data.
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@chamath Don't forget the voters that just wanna stick it to the billionaires and dont even care what happens to the money.
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The reason she says “could pay for” instead of “will pay for” is crucially important to understand.
The programs Sen Warren talks about are important and helpful. But in no way can Sen Warren guarantee that the money the government collects can be sent directly to these programs let alone that those programs will spend it wisely and won’t waste it.
In other words, this can buy votes from the people grifting from the leaky bucket or idealists who want to tithe and think they are part of some greater good but it won’t actually solve any real problems.
Until there is some form of closed-loop accountability and auditing of government programs, even those that support big government need to be intellectually honest enough to admit this is all theater and sending good money after bad fixes nothing and is more destructive than helpful.
Elizabeth Warren@ewarren
The Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act would generate over $6 trillion over the next decade—without raising taxes on 99.85% of American households. This wealth tax for millionaires and billionaires could pay for universal child care, free community college, Medicare expansion, and more.
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@burkov The right is way more tolerant of diverse opinions than the left at least.
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It's so dumb that, in order to support individual liberty, limited government, free capitalism, and meritocracy, you must also support gun fetishism and oppose a woman's right to her own body.
It's so dumb that, in order to support the separation of church and state and accessible public education, you must also support the crazy woke shit.
A two-party system where none of the parties represent you is no better than a single-party system or a monarchy.
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@jkrajewski @TheMIAAllDay247 Mostly on the TL, sometimes emails, gcs and private invites. I’ll keep posting what I plan on attending based on tech and arts
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If you’re in Miami and not connecting it’s because you simply don’t want to. Here are some events I attended and others on my radar for this week
Monday: Anti Networking Event
Tuesday: Superteam USA Launch and MiamiHackWeek by ZoComputer Happy Hour
Wednesday: ClawCon by KiloClaw, Women We Build and Private Investors Cocktail Hour
Today: Builders Miami by Bitcoin Grove, Agentic Systems Vol2. Ai Masterclass, SuperPay: the future of agentic payments
Friday: Claude Miami and FIIPriority Miami
It’s also Miami Music Week sponsored by Bored Vodka and Ultra this weekend.
Go outside, network and have some fun!
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For one particle, the system is described by a wavefunction governed by the Schrödinger equation.
In many cases (free particle, harmonic oscillator, hydrogen atom), we have exact analytical solutions. Essentially infinite for us, but perhaps not for a continuous reality (rather than our discrete one).
That fact to me says the most about being in a simulation: there are limits, we don't find infinity anywhere.
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The amount of "computation" required to simulate quantum mechanics on one particle for a tiny amount of time is truly ludicrous, essentially infinite. It cannot be done by present or future humans for any definition of "computation" we now recognize...
x.com/martinmbauer/s…
Martin Bauer@martinmbauer
The computer scientist understands how closely simulations can resemble everyday reality, the physicist understands that the Universe, on closer inspection, does not
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@CharlesDrawings thats great :) we can do that if it gets streaming presence, talk to our community folks on Discord
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@jkrajewski We’re now 25 players in my ECO event 🤯 The hype is insane people are literally buying the game right now!
Any chance it’d be possible to get 2–3 game keys to bring even more people in? If you want!🤩😁
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@SaintPatrick333 @Jonathan_Blow The issue is it takes fewer engineers to guide an AI than it does to write all the code, so thats where the job losses come from.
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@jkrajewski @Jonathan_Blow Having it write all your code is fine. There is a difference between that and it taking your job. We still have to push it to do what we actually want which takes knowledge and skill. Many times the prodding takes more time than coding by hand. It's a mess at best.
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This is such a *completely* different reality from where I live, at this point it's just difficult to say anything meaningful about it at all.
x.com/sama/status/20…
Sam Altman@sama
I have so much gratitude to people who wrote extremely complex software character-by-character. It already feels difficult to remember how much effort it really took. Thank you for getting us to this point.
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@SaintPatrick333 @Jonathan_Blow I disagree, and so do the many companies that say their engineering staff barely writes code anymore.
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@jkrajewski @Jonathan_Blow Engineers relying on this tech are essentially poisoning the well. They will make themselves obsolete and more dumb. LLMs aren't useless but they aren't really that useful at the same time.
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Well AI doesnt run itself (yet). And you didnt notice the many companies laying people off and stating AI as the reason?
And also the velocity of the quality is important. If you compare now to a year ago its a massive improvement. And safe to assume its only up from here, and fast.
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@jkrajewski @Jonathan_Blow The (irl) scenario where it kinda sucks at writing code?
All these AI companies themselves have been hiring software engineers for years now?
Why are all these software companies interviewing me and others rn? I literally had an interview yesterday, everyones well aware of AI..
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.@jkrajewski Hey! Just wondering when the next update might be happening. I’m about to launch a new server with 20–30 friends so they can discover the game, and I’m super excited about it. Just wanted to check if an update is coming soon!
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If its phrased that way as a straight payment, I imagine it would be enormously high, since the bottom 80% would net benefit. Unless you count the negative impacts on business, which most wouldnt.
The impact of tax is complex and relies on a lot of factors, cant imagine it going well if set directly by the public.
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@jkrajewski But... what sales tax would you set for your community, if everyone got an equal share of it as a dividend?
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In a digital direct democracy where everyone can directly vote on a number (e.g. sales tax rate), it seems like the right behavior would be to use the median of all votes once a supermajority of votes had been reached. Right?
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Youre missing the point. 'Hollywood is cooked' doesn't mean 'random copyright violating slop is going to take over streaming'. It means this technology makes it infinitely cheaper to generate content, and that will begin affecting Hollywood rapidly. The dollars spent on generating the content will stop flowing, and thats why theyre 'cooked'. IP holders on the other hand will make killings.
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Morons mooing "Hollywood is cooked" cannot understand with their pea-sized brains that
1) these videos wouldn't exist if they weren't stolen from Hollywood-made movies, and Hollywood, contrary to book authors and publishers, has the money and balls to protect what's theirs, and
2) it doesn't matter that you can generate nice videos as long as no theater and no streaming service distributes your stolen content, and none of them will.
Damn, how are there so many unicellulars with dumb opinions out there?
el.cine@EHuanglu
Seedance 2.0 turns kids drawing into 100k film scene.. hollywood is cooked
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@wookash_podcast It's been 1-3 years since people have been saying this stuff. If they have 10x'd their productivity, that is 10-30 years in traditional developer time. Where is all the softwares that should have been produced by this massive productivity increase?
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> And i just feel so horribly guilty and wrong because i am not getting the results of "everyone else on twitter."
It kinda feels like "everyone else on twitter" might not be perfectly honest with their results
ThePrimeagen@ThePrimeagen
Alright interns, we need to have some real talk here I am tired of vibing on stream. I dont really like vibe coding unless its a tool i have no desire to build (how i manage things on my stream / how i write my youtube videos are great examples of things i would never build but i have). I dont like vibing the things i care about. I hate the code it generates, i hate the feeling of getting everything i ask for and nothing i want. I hate the subtle offness around vibe coded things. It is just driving me nuts. So for the next while i am going to be done vibing on stream. I genuinely have been trying my hardest to make this work and i cannot quite put a finger on why i hate it, but i do. And i just feel so horribly guilty and wrong because i am not getting the results of "everyone else on twitter." How am i, someone who prides themselves on making youtube videos that i think are actually good for people. To make videos that help people laugh at the silliness of tech or learn something new. But here i am not able to keep up with all these people claiming the sky is literally coming down. I just feel horrible and guilty about it. Now i know the world is changing fast, and i want to be able to understand that change super well, be able to talk about it, be able to give really accurate opinions about it so for the last 3 months i have vibe coded an absurd amount of things. But now... i am just tired of it. I dont want this any more. I want to be a tradcoder. I dont know why i told everyone this, but i just have this growing sickness that is just eating me alive around vibing and i dont know how to express it. You all are fired, CEO ThePrimeagen
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