Balance Sheet BS

Small account. Real research. No sector loyalty. I go where the balance sheet tells me to go. Every thesis documented. Every dollar tracked. Every gain, every loss, public. Value investing isn't a sector. It's a discipline. Follow along, the balance sheet doesn't lie.

All the maintenance and technical requirements are from American Petroleum technical well operations manuals and American best practice. You have to remember they are being capped under emergency situations so the process is swift and brutal in the underground systems. Nobody realizes how truly caustic ground crude is. The water extracted from the crude can be like 10x more salinity than the oceans. Extremely hard on anything metal, especially when the chemicals that protect those systems require constant flow to be effective.

@BalanceSheetBS Using the Kepler data for the current oil production calcs? Not managed to find the time to dig into it myself or find the best sources

⛽ STRAIT STATUS | Day 27 | 9 AM EST Strait: CLOSED. Day 27. 0 of 5 reopening objectives met. OVERNIGHT: Israel killed the IRGC Navy commander responsible for the Hormuz blockade. Iran fortifying Kharg Island (90% of its oil exports) for possible US seizure operation. Iran issued its OWN 5 counter-demands: reparations, sovereignty over Hormuz, halt all aggression. Israel expanding reserve mobilization to 400,000 from 280,000. Trump postponed China trip to May 14-15. Read between the lines on that timeline. Iran FM: US shift in tone is an "admission of failure" after demanding "unconditional surrender." Oil rising again. Markets no longer believe a deal is close. DAMAGE CLOCK: Iraq: 23 DAYS shut in. 9 days past permanent damage threshold. Wells deteriorating daily. Kuwait: Fully capped. Airport fuel tank destroyed. CEO confirmed 3-4 month restart. UAE: 50%+ cut. Storage critical. Saudi Arabia: ~9 days until storage wall. Eastern Province under daily attack. Qatar LNG: 17% physically destroyed. 3-5 years to rebuild. TOMORROW: The 5-day "pause" expires. Iran rejected the deal. Iran demands reparations and Hormuz sovereignty. Same lesson as the shut-in wells. The damage is physical. Not political. $LNG $EXE Trust the balance sheet.

@Rochester_Rates That's the brutal reality right there.

@BalanceSheetBS The insane part of this week, is European natural gas traded below the level before Qatars LNG sites were hit - the market pricing isn't just wrong it's irrational - unfortunately sometimes longer than we can remain solvent :)

While the world panics about the loss of Qatari LNG, your reminder that nat gas prices in the Permian (Waha hub) had been negative for 35 consecutive trading days — and counting. And that Henry Hub is at ~$3 per mBtu (compared to $8-$10 in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine)

@JavierBlas This.

Take this with the reality on the ground each day. That is what the paper models should be showing.

It is absolutely stunning. It is a massive loss to those reservoirs and wells. This is a much bigger problem than anyone realizes. I do not have a dashboard. Just thought I needed to start sharing the physical reality of this crisis because so many were staring at it like this transitory thing. "Oh it happened in Iraq (we came out with more oil), the embargo (wasnt a loss of production problem), etc. Every crisis came out with increased supplies within a year. That cannot happen in this scenario. Oh and a kicker for everyone..... You can't store LNG like crude, its production fluid. Sorry, been waiting for someone to see anything, so you got it all.

@BalanceSheetBS Are you hosting this dashboard on a site we can track? What's odd about this conflict is energy analysts were all over the shut-in problem to come, but there has been a lot less noise in recent weeks.

@NotA_Bull Been trying to preach to you! $LNG $EXE

Bloody day 🔴 in the markets today… Let me zoom out and see the real picture. I'm up about 18% in the last 365 days.. relief, lol. But when will we see a turnaround?

@0rangeCru5h Its happening. Serious physical damage every day.

This

finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy… Reminder, I bought back at $273 and the senior note addition raises my average intrinsic value to $535 If I had more $, I would grab more $LNG and sit. This is the most grossly undervalued large cap in energy. Trust the balance sheet.

⛽ STRAIT STATUS | Day 26 | 9 AM EST Strait: CLOSED. Day 26. 0 of 5 reopening objectives met. OVERNIGHT: 82nd Airborne deploying 1,000+ troops to Middle East. Iranian missile hit a Tel Aviv street. 7 waves of missiles overnight. Iran mocked talks: US is "negotiating with themselves." Iran told mediators: "tricked twice, won't be fooled again" (Axios). Israeli official: deal "does not appear tangible right now." Kuwait airport fuel tank hit by Iranian drone. Congress rejected war authorization resolution. GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS SPREADING: Philippines declared national energy emergency. Sri Lanka ordered lights switched off nationwide. Australia: 107 fuel stations out of diesel in NSW. India PM compared crisis to COVID. DAMAGE CLOCK: Iraq: 22 DAYS shut in. 8 days past JPT permanent damage threshold. 79% of production offline. Kuwait: Fully capped. CEO confirmed 3-4 month restart timeline. UAE: 50%+ cut. Storage critical. Saudi Arabia: ~10 days until capping begins. Qatar LNG: 17% destroyed. 3-5 years to rebuild. The 5-day "pause" on power plant strikes is 2 days old. The damage clock is 26 days old. Only one of those matters. Next update: 9 PM EST. $LNG $EXE Trust the balance sheet.

Fund managers are rushing to cash because they don't know where to hide. Everything that depends on cheap energy is repricing and they don't have a playbook for it. The one sector where cash is flowing IN, not out: energy. Up 33% YTD while everything else bleeds. The cash pile is the tell. It means conviction is low across the board. The managers who actually did the work aren't sitting in cash. They're sitting in the balance sheets that profit from the exact catalyst driving everyone else to the sidelines. Trust the balance sheet.

⚠️Global fund managers are rushing to cash at the fastest pace since the 2020 crash: The BofA Fund Manager Survey average cash level jumped to 4.3% of assets under management in March, up from 3.4%, the biggest monthly increase since 2020..👇 globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-fe…

This is why the "ceasefire" headline moved crude 13% yesterday and the denial moved it back within 15 minutes. Iran doesn't trust the negotiators. The negotiators don't have a counterpart. The defense secretary doesn't want a deal. And Israel just raised its reserve mobilization to 400,000. Meanwhile, Iraq's wells have been shut in for 21 days, 7 days past the permanent damage threshold. Kuwait's CEO said today restart takes 3-4 months. 40+ energy sites damaged. The market keeps pricing a deal. The ground keeps pricing damage. 0 of 5 strait reopening objectives met. Trust the balance sheet.

BREAKING: Iranian officials have told mediators that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and "we don't want to be fooled again," per Axios. In the two previous rounds of talks with Iran, Trump "green lit" surprise attacks while claiming to be seeking a deal.

And the rocks most people skip are the boring ones. 10-Ks, cash flow statements, reserve reports, contract structures. Nobody gets excited reading about 20-year take-or-pay agreements. But that's exactly where the mispricing hides. The edge isn't finding more stocks. It's reading deeper into fewer. Trust the balance sheet.

“The person who turns over the most rocks wins the game." "If you look at ten stocks, you'll probably find one that's mispriced. If you look at twenty, you'll find two. If you look at forty, you'll find four." — Peter Lynch. October 2025.

This is the line that matters: "even before the war." The bull case for North American energy infrastructure was already there. Tight power markets, growing LNG demand, data center buildout, underinvestment in upstream for a decade. The war didn't create the thesis. It accelerated a repricing that was already overdue. The balance sheets that were undervalued at $3.50 gas could be undervalued at $5+ gas with 20% of global LNG offline for years. Trust the balance sheet.

"We're in a very good market when it comes to oil and gas, even before the war," Caterpillar power & energy group president Jason Kaiser says. "We see that trend continuing."

And that was February. Before oil hit $100+, before the Fed started discussing hikes, before mortgage rates climbed back toward 7%. Wait until the March and April data prints with $4 gas, rising inflation expectations, and a 10-year that won't come down because the energy crisis has no off switch. The housing market is telling you what the stock market hasn't admitted yet. The cost structure of the economy just changed. Trust the balance sheet.

42k US home purchases were canceled in February which equates to 13.7% of all homes under contract. That's the highest cancellation percentage for any February on record.

“Surround yourself with people who push you to do better. No drama. No negativity. Just higher goals, positive energy, and growth.” — Warren Buffett Your circle shapes your standard.

⛽ STRAIT STATUS | Day 25 | 9 PM EST Today the market got two headlines. One said ceasefire. One said "not fully priced in." The ceasefire is a 15-point surrender document Iran won't sign, negotiated by envoys Iran refuses to meet with. US and Israeli officials say no pause for 2-3 weeks. The "not fully priced in" came from Chevron's CEO at CERAWeek this afternoon. He's right. Here's what's not priced in: Iraq has been shut in for 21 DAYS. That's 7 days past the Journal of Petroleum Technology's threshold for permanent reservoir damage. Basra production: 3.3M down to 900K bbl/day. Kuwait's CEO said today from Kuwait City, with air raid sirens going off, that full restart takes "3 to 4 months." He called emergency reserves and sanctions waivers "not even stopgap measures." UAE has cut production 50%+ this month. ADNOC's CEO called it "economic terrorism against every nation." Saudi Arabia: ~10 days of storage left. Early April they start capping. The screen can move 2% on a ceasefire headline. The reservoir damage underneath moves in one direction. It gets worse. Next update: 9 AM EST. $LNG $EXE Trust the balance sheet.

And the rocks most people skip are the boring ones. 10-Ks, cash flow statements, reserve reports, contract structures. Nobody gets excited reading a 20-year take-or-pay agreement. But that's exactly where the mispricing hides. The edge isn't finding more stocks. It's reading deeper into fewer. Trust the balance sheet.

Peter Lynch: "The person who turns over the most rocks wins the game." "If you look at ten stocks, you'll probably find one that's mispriced. If you look at twenty, you'll find two. If you look at forty, you'll find four."

Lazard is saying out loud what the balance sheet has been saying quietly for months. North American gas infrastructure is the most strategically important asset class on the continent right now. 20% of global LNG just went offline for years. 45% of Gulf oil production is impaired. Data centers need power yesterday. The companies that already built the infrastructure, already signed the contracts, and already have the reserves in the ground don't need permitting reform to win. They're winning now. Trust the balance sheet.

"We need to make it easier to build gas infrastructure in this country," Lazard's George Bilicic says, adding: There's "opportunity for permitting reform, and the multiplier effect of that investment across the economy will be quite powerful."