BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰

Hedge off. VX_F long massive.

I'm pretty sure Trump just asked Chat GPT how to end the war in Iran.

I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public. I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are. 1/ Here's what I can share:

It’s about time to have a spoos -2% down day

I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual war both sides have to agree to end it (or one has to surrender). They’re going to figure that out eventually. The Fed’s cutting cycle is on its way to being completely priced out. 2 weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was 75bps lower than March 2026. Now it’s down to 25bps and IOR is comfortably above 2yr (meaning reserve managers are not buying the dip on the expectation the cutting cycle continues). If NFP is strong, it’ll wreck rates (at a time when financing has become increasingly important for the largest companies in the world) while if it’s weak I don’t think equities respond positively either. And this all is coming at a time when AI is maybe not good enough to convince companies to replace workers with machines while business goes along as usual, but certainly is good enough to have companies attempt to use it for roles they had to cut because of economic pressure and potentially find out they don’t need to hire that role back. It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and brush them off as priced in, that’s been a good strategy (most years have drawdowns of 10-15% routinely). But SPX is ~5% off all time highs…

NOBODY KNOWS HOW FUCKED THE SITUATION IN THE PERSIAN GULF ACTUALLY IS. 3,200 ships are TRAPPED in the Persian Gulf right now. Crews are running out of drinking water. One ship called the local port authority and BEGGED for permission to dock — just to get water. They were DENIED. 💀 Let that sink in. These aren't military ships. These are commercial vessels — carrying oil, grain, electronics — with civilian crews who are now stranded with NO supplies and NO way out. – 3,200 ships STUCK ⚠️ – Crews running out of WATER 💀 – Port authorities REFUSING to let them dock ⚠️ – Multiple ships reporting the SAME situation 💀 ⚠️ For context — the Suez Canal crisis in 2021 blocked 400 ships. This is EIGHT TIMES worse. And nobody is talking about it. They're showing you missile interceptions and oil price charts. They're NOT showing you thousands of crew members slowly running out of drinking water in the middle of a war zone. If these ships start getting abandoned, the environmental disaster alone would be catastrophic. Thousands of tons of fuel, cargo, chemicals — just sitting there. This is not a shipping disruption. This is a HUMANITARIAN CRISIS unfolding in real time. Prepare accordingly. 🚨🚨🚨 X is hiding this. Follow + RT before it disappears. 🔥

Today I$rael tried to kill me in a targeted airstrike in southern Lebanon as I was reporting on was the targeting of bridges and the forced displacement of 1 million people, an ethnic cleansing operation on a larger scale than the Nakba I have absolutely no doubt that this was deliberate. Despite claims there were no warnings ahead of the strike and no notifications sent to the Lebanese Army who allowed us to film As we have seen in Gaza they want to silence journalists who document and report their war crimes It is the western powers who provide political and military support for I$rael, arming it to the teeth to carry out genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing here in Lebanon. They are not simply complicit, but active participants and should be held accountable for their actions. But if I$rael thinks today’s strike will silence us and keep us out of the field they are very, very mistaken

There are a couple of countries directly benefiting from the Strait of Hormuz, closure, Russia and Algeria are among the main beneficiaries. Here is a way to play the latter. Executive Summary Eni S.p.A. (NYSE: E) is an integrated global energy major headquartered in Italy, operating across the entire hydrocarbon value chain—from exploration and production (E&P) to refining, chemicals, and power generation. The company makes money primarily by extracting crude oil and natural gas and selling it into global wholesale markets, with a highly strategic, dominant production footprint in Africa. Economically, Eni exhibits the classic cyclicality and capital intensity of a commodity producer, but it possesses a distinct geographic edge: it is the primary foreign partner of Algeria’s state-owned Sonatrach. In the event of a Strait of Hormuz closure, Eni represents the premier publicly traded proxy to monetize Algeria’s insulated, pipeline-connected energy exports to Europe. Its edge lies in this irreplaceable Mediterranean infrastructure, while its primary risks are European windfall taxes, volatile carbon regulatory shifts, and the inherent execution risk of offshore E&P. One-Line Business Description: Eni is a highly integrated European energy giant that leverages a dominant North African resource base to feed Europe’s structural gas deficit. 1. What They Sell and Who Buys • Main Products: Crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), refined petroleum products, petrochemicals, and renewable energy/biofuels (via its Plenitude and Enilive subsidiaries). • Target Customers: Wholesale energy markets, industrial manufacturers, European utilities, and retail consumers (fuel stations and gas/power distribution). • Why They Buy (Pain Point): Customers buy for base-load energy security. Europe’s structural pivot away from Russian piped gas has made Eni’s North African gas flows—specifically its Algerian pipeline imports—critical for continental energy survival. Furthermore, should a Middle Eastern maritime closure occur, Asian demand will aggressively seek replacement volumes. China, as the dominant Asian energy consumer, would be forced to bid up unconstrained Atlantic and Mediterranean LNG cargoes, driving intense global competition for Eni's integrated supply. 2. How They Make Money • Revenue Model & Pricing Logic: Eni operates a transaction-based model dictated by global commodity benchmarks (e.g., Brent crude and TTF natural gas). They extract resources at a base lifting cost and sell at prevailing spot or contract rates. • Revenue Type: Hybrid. Upstream (E&P) revenues are transaction-based and highly cyclical. The Global Gas & LNG Portfolio segment utilizes long-term, take-or-pay contracts that provide baseline recurring cash flows. • Key Segments: Upstream (E&P) generates the vast majority of operating profit and free cash flow. Global Gas & LNG, Refining, and Plenitude act as downstream integration channels and margin stabilizers. 3. Revenue Quality • Predictability & Diversification: Revenue predictability is historically low due to heavy exposure to commodity cycles, though volume delivery is highly predictable. Geographic risk is diversified but heavily weighted toward Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Angola, Ivory Coast). • Cyclical Exposure & The Hormuz Catalyst: A Hormuz closure would spike Brent and TTF prices. While Gulf-dependent producers would suffer force majeure, Eni's Algerian and Mediterranean revenues would experience an immediate quality and margin upgrade. Their physical delivery infrastructure (e.g., the TransMed pipeline to Italy) bypasses naval chokepoints entirely, virtually eliminating supply chain disruption risk while capturing panic-driven pricing. 4. Cost Structure • Major Cost Drivers: Lifting costs (extraction), exploration capital (seismic, drilling), refining COGS, host-government royalties, and logistics.

For the record, the president of the United States is now simultaneously claiming that he has won the war, is currently winning the war, needs help to win the war, and needs no help to win the war. All to destroy the nuclear program he claims to have already destroyed last year.