Banting Court Capital

Big Tech is sitting on $1.65T in hidden AI debt. Instead of hitting their balance sheets, the risk is parked in SPVs financed by private credit and pension funds. It's the 2008 CDO playbook, rebuilt for GPUs (to fund AI data centers). Full breakdown below 🧵👇

NYC pays drug users 20¢ per returned used syringe to clear street litter. But a 120-pack of new syringes on Amazon is $19.99 (16.65¢ each). That’s an instant 20% arbitrage opportunity trading the spread on municipal buybacks. 📈💉 #Arbitrage #NYC What an interesting policy..

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The S&P 500 Will Finish 🔼 today.

@Kalshi Yes and it's all surrounding rate hikes!

BREAKING: 42% chance of a recession next year

@burrytracker He waited approx. 2 years for 2008.

Update: It's been 266 days since Michael Burry publicly went bearish on Nvidia $NVDA It's down ~4% since

The flat S&P 500 is a trap today. 🚨 Under the hood, it’s pure stealth distribution: 🩸 NYSE TICK bleeding past -1,000 📈 $VIX rising on a flat tape (funds buying puts) 📉 Volume completely dead Mega-caps are masking the rot. If they snap, the trapdoor opens. 📉

@TheTradingChamp Correct. This mentality is killing traders.

You work a job to make less than $200/day But you won’t take profits when you’re up $200+ on a position in less than an hour of trading $200 x 252 Trading Days = $50,400/year FIFTY THOUSAND A YEAR

@RoadOutOfSerfdm @mathlonning Circular financing is old news. The concerning item is private credit (PC) cajoling insurers & pension funds into funding AI data centers through SPVs (from hyperscalers). Now, these insurers also have billions in uncommitted liabilities that PC can call in at anytime. 👇

@mathlonning Market scared of Burry circular financing thesis?

Interesting price action

@BLKCandle @unusual_whales To be fair, he did predict 2008 and the market was so incredibly rigged it actually attempted to outlast him. Another 2 years and he would've been toast. What makes you think you're in a completely fair market right now? You think those are real gains that you're seeing?

@unusual_whales didnt this idiot predict a market crash years ago? he got the 2008 right and thinks he is a prophet lmao

Michael Burry has said that about private equity and private credit are using life and offshore insurance firms as a "state backstop" to socialize high-risk tech and infrastructure debt.

How it feels to hold $SPCX shares...

People on X will flat out refuse to pay $10-$20/month for advanced market data and trading tips, but will gladly pay that exact same amount just to write >280 characters and have more people see their replies. ​Which is actually a better return on capital? 📊

@Tradeify Prop firms encouraging people to continue buying evals and not worry so much about blown accounts. Preaching financial irresponsibility. Good Lord...

REMINDER: Your trading journey won't be defined by the accounts you blow. It'll be defined by the moments you choose not to quit.

Any takers?

@Mr_Derivatives *In a private placement.

Warren Buffett bought $10B worth of $GOOGL $GOOG stock last month. You can now tail the whale at 9% ish cheaper than his entry. Why not?

@bojan_ai That's not true at all. Reality labs had over $2B of revenue in 2025, OpenAI had approx. $25 billion. However, they had operating losses of $19 billion and approx. $20 billion respectively.

@BantingInc The comparison rhymes on spend size but breaks on revenue. Reality Labs generated basically nothing for seven years, cloud and inference billing from AI capex is showing up on income statements within quarters, not someday. Different bet even if the scale looks similar.

$META lost $90B over 7 years on Reality Labs (Metaverse), laid off 10% of the team, and pivoted as soon as AI became the new shiny thing. Now tech is spending hundreds of billions on AI capex. Who’s to say another shiny object won’t come along and leave AI in the rearview too?

@LEAPTRADER_ This is decent advice at best, nowhere near great advice. Some of the best things on the planet have been the worst investments.

Elon Musk saying it how it is. We complicate things too much.

@MyOnlyFarms @Kalshi They are running a cult, that user base is very sticky.

@Kalshi Apple’s days are numbered tbh. Haven’t developed anything new in over a decade.

JUST IN: Apple is outperforming the Nasdaq by the widest margin in 20 years

@FritzOptions @EinsteinoWallSt We believe so as well. Not manipulation, just misguided optimism.

@EinsteinoWallSt We will be red by morning cash open !

Futures are open 👀

@xfd_obama @SMB_Attorney Not quite the case. Buffett was conservative, that's why Abel is in charge now. With interest rates so high, Buffet just capitulated to T-bills. If $BRK.B has record cash, it means we're in a bull market, nothing more. bantingcourtcapital.com/berkshire-hath…

@SMB_Attorney All that cash ain't a flex—it's a hedge, innit. Buffett's not buying 'cos he knows the price is wrong

Insane fact: Berkshire cash generates roughly $12–17 billion in annualized risk-free interest income (from Treasury yields), which is more than the total net profits of most S&P 500 companies and roughly on par with Disney’s trailing earnings

@WinnerInvestor He's already on his way home, we're going to have to wait until September to learn more. Wildcard: Trump and Larry are close, maybe he kisses the ring and gets the bailout cash.

@BantingInc I don't see $ORCL slowing down. Larry wants to be the leader. Go big or go home.

$ORCL is down ~60% from ATH. Company took on a ton of debt, but they are not running a charity. They will pass on the costs and get their cut. I don't expect to see good companies trading at large discounts without any reason. Oracle is now having to pay ~8% to get loans and some think they will have to dilute significantly or cut their losses. I even see posts where people think $ORCL will go bankrupt. I say Larry Ellison still owns ~41% of $ORCL and he knows what he is doing. I am averaging down.