Benoni
1.2K posts


@Midnight_Captl @MF_Camillus Market just fixated on market cap at the moment doesn’t matter how much better the PE or growth is
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@MF_Camillus They’re gonna put up mid to high 30% YoY rev growth, meanwhile NV gonna put up 80%, and people will continue saying AMD is taking market share
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For diehard $AMD fans, now holding up to the CPU shortage "thesis", remember Jensen's recent statements about CPUs...
“For the very first time, we're going to be offering Vera CPUs…we’re going to offer Vera CPUs as a standalone part of the infrastructure”
He added that customers would be able to run compute not only on Nvidia GPUs but also on Nvidia CPUs, and said Nvidia had not yet announced CPU design wins but that “there will be many”
Keep that in mind for now...
Hardik Shah@AIStockSavvy
$AMD | 𝐀𝐌𝐃: HSBC 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐝, raises 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟑𝟒𝟎 Analyst sees limited upside after sharp re-rating, with valuation stretched and capacity constraints capping earnings growth.
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@WhaleNoName @hussein_ah Difference is csco had a PE ratio of 190 at the time while NVDA is 40 pretty big difference
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@hussein_ah I will only look for what I consider truly real and probable
You should take a closer look at how overheated the stock market is right now
When the picture changes, my posts will clearly shift to a bullish stance
But the current reality is what it is
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🚨 NVIDIA IN 2026 LOOKS EXACTLY LIKE CISCO IN 2000
Cisco was the face of the dot-com era - everyone knew the internet would change everything, so everyone bought Cisco
They were right about the internet. But stocks still dropped 86% from its peak
Nvidia is the face of the AI era - same narrative, same euphoria, same crowded trade
Being right about the technology doesn't protect you from being wrong about the price
The chart on the right is following the same path as the chart on the left
You've been warned
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@13F_Pro @FirstSquawk Or Jeffries can’t justify a 12 month target 65% higher than it’s currently trading
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@FirstSquawk $675 to $575 is a 15% cut on valuation compression, not fundamentals rolling over. Jefferies is saying MSFT's trading at peak-cycle multiples while AI monetization still hasn't proven at scale. $MSFT
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@yoyowhyyolo @itsmichaelluu @fundstrat He’s a grifter trying to farm for a may or June crash. Tom lee has never given a timeline beyond testing the new Fed that could be I 30 days or might not be till September
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@itsmichaelluu @fundstrat Your post said May/June crash but the chart shows the decline in the fall??
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Tom Lee says the May/June SPY crash will feel like hell, but you just buy the dip for SPY target $770+
Here's exactly what's coming from @fundstrat:
1/ The Timeline
New Fed chair confirmation is starting NOW.
Kevin Warsh. Senate floor vote could come 50-70 days after committee. That puts a new Fed chair in place by June-July 2026.
2/ History doesn't lie and it's horrifying
"10 of 13 Fed chairs had a drawdown of more than 10% in the first year. So I think it's more the rule than the exception that we're going to get a drawdown." says Tom Lee
Since 1930, the SPY has logged average drawdowns of 5%, 12%, and 16% over the 1-, 3-, and 6-month periods after a new Fed chief took the helm all larger than the typical peak-to-trough drop in a randomly selected year, per Barclays.
This isn't a black swan. It's a pattern.
3/ The Road Map
"We originally said that the market could get towards 7,300. And it looks like we're on a path towards that. We're well over 7,000. And then we'll have a decline that will feel like a bear market. Perhaps it's because of the market testing new Fed chair." — Tom Lee
The data backing this: The median intra-year drawdown from an all-time high in the SPT since 1980 is 10.4%. Statistically, there's a 50% chance the index drops 10% or more at some point in 2026.
Feel like a bear market = -15% to -20% easily on the table.
4/ But Mag 7, crypto, and software are ALREADY bleeding
"Keep in mind, a lot of the markets have already had a drawdown in the Mag 7, crypto, and software."— Tom Lee
The broad index hasn't felt it yet. Rotation is a warning shot, not a safety net.
5/ Then… the rally of a lifetime
"I think a rally follows because fundamentals are strengthening maybe one of the strongest rallies we'll see in our lifetime."— Tom Lee
Since 1980, the average intra-year drawdown has been over 14% yet the SPY has still averaged 10.7% annual gains during that same period. Double-digit drops have historically come with double-digit annual gains.
The flush is the setup.
6/ His final warning:
"Just a reminder just don't time the market, even if you're tempted to." says Tom Lee
So this is the full sequence:SPY → 7,300 than New Fed chair → 10-16% drawdown then rally of our lifetime

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@Bones_Trader777 @Nebraskangooner Given enough time probably, dollars only worth 30% of what it was when I was born. If it continues devaluing good chance
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Is it realistic to think that one #Bitcoin will eventually be worth $1 million?
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@David_Tracey @Governorgamma Does it all the time brother if I’d seen your tweet earlier I would have said it’ll give back 40% of that move in the next few mins but it already has. Weekends BTC will pump 1-2k out of nowhere to wreck leverage traders
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@SplinterGoggles @P_Remarks No worries dude it’s pretty niche if you’re not following them
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@SplinterGoggles @P_Remarks GameStop is trying to acquire EBay. GME has a market cap of 12b eBay has a market cap of 46b the joke is that a company is trying to acquire a business 4x larger than it.
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@StockSavvyShay Cathy woods policy: Stock at all times high, buy some.
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@hstaater @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt You usually buy when it’s overly bearish and it works out which was the case in March
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@jimcramer I missed the part of the call where Satya said they were divesting cloud
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@thisisomid_tc @CyclesFan Technicals levels are basically ignored to the downside on Msft overhead resistance is real but it’s passed through the 20 50 and 5 without even pausing about 4 times in the last 2 months
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@CyclesFan honestly the 20 DMA call ignores that MSFT just beat on earnings and cloud reaccelerated technicals dont tell the whole story when fundamentals just repriced the stock
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@big_balla_walla $TEAM and $TWLO had big beats for software sector
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@Midnight_Captl Hyperscalers are also going to spend all the money and have zero benefit as well. Markets just very tunnel vision
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@The_AI_Investor Goog is fairly values Msft is grossly undervalued as is AMZN and meta
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Google is a great company, but:
In models, Gemini is behind Claude and GPT.
In compute, TPUs are behind NVIDIA GPUs.
Google Search growing 19% year over year was actually quite impressive. Are people still using search that much?
Does Google deserve a premium over companies like MSFT and NVDA?
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@codetocompound @Kalshi There’s a call wall at 445 market doesn’t want the stock there as it’ll push it into positive gamma
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@Kalshi Seems like market is not liking $MSFT
x.com/codetocompound…
Code to Compound@codetocompound
What is going on with $MSFT.... I don't see anything off with the report. Every key number beats estimates, only thing that might be slightly off is the revenue guidance deceleration to 13%-15%. Maybe market is not liking the rising capex, like what happened to $META. Tell me the reason of this sell off if you have any.
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