Bardo Faraday

@hillery_dan Not enough Bitcoin is dead headlines yet. Maybe at $50k

When Bitcoin comes back it will come back with a roaring vengeance.

If you denominate US GDP in gold instead of dollars, the chart is wild.

@RyanDetrick @CiovaccoCapital @awealthofcs I don't like to dismiss data based on feels... But there is no fucking way this right.

The middle class is shrinking they keep saying. True, but it is because they are going to the upper middle class. That part conveniently gets left out. Also, poor and lower middle class are much lower than 45 years ago. Nice one from @awealthofcs on things getting better.

@Alpha_Ex_LLC @jam_croissant This was super helpful. Thank you.

You have to love this… $SPCX The “facts on $SPAX” The 2x daily ETF is coming tomorrow. Thank goodness, how would we have managed risk or generated return safely without it? Below, the table from the prospectus that you always want to look at in one of these products. It maps returns in the underlying versus modeled returns in the lev product based on a vol assumption. Geometric returns and “vol drag” mean that higher volatility in the underlying will cause the leveraged product to do worse than 2x the return of the underlying. It’s a consequence of the trading strategy getting long the underlying when it rises to an extent that no one conceivably would. The problem is that no one reads this table or really understands it. The table includes a 10% vol assumption in the table for your convenience. Wow. There aren’t many 10 vol assets in the world. The SPX is more like a 15 vol. But SPCX might be one? It would mean it was moving around 60bps a day. 25 vol? Still not even close. 50 vol? That’s 3% daily move. Closer, perhaps, over the course of a year, but I still buy that. 50 vol is where an honest table would start. And a 150 vol should be added as well. The results at 150 are shockingly bad. See the second pic below. Lastly, how does the third table look? Eliminates the ridiculous 10 and 25 vol assumptions. Please know what you are buying.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran just published all 14 clauses of the MoU. Read them carefully, because this is not the deal Trump described. The headline numbers: $300 billion in reconstruction commitments from the US and allies. $24 billion in released frozen funds, half before negotiations even start. Complete naval blockade lifted within 30 days. US forces withdrawn from around Iran. Here's the big one: Hormuz reopens under Iranian arrangements, meaning Iran keeps management of the strait. The nuclear clause is Clause 9: Iran reiterates its commitment not to produce nuclear weapons. That's it. No enrichment cap. No dismantlement. No inspector access beyond existing frameworks. The actual nuclear terms get negotiated in a separate 60-day window, and Clause 14 explicitly removes Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups from the agenda entirely. Permanently. Iran's Deputy FM called it a total victory this morning. He wasn't spinning. Source: Mehr News / Writer: Oliver

@hillery_dan Where STRC come from?

@dampedspring Andy over here arguing with nobody. Perps are stupid. So is the Mega Millions. Let's rant about that now.

Bucket shops 101 "In the first place, you didn't buy or sell stock. You didn't buy 100 shares of Erie to hold or to sell at a profit... You made a wager on the price, just as you might have done on the outcome of a football game." "You could buy on a margin of one per cent. That meant that if you had twenty dollars you could buy one hundred shares of a stock selling at twenty... If the price dropped to nineteen and seven-eighths you were wiped out automatically." "The margin was so small that the slightest wiggle against you wiped you out. The shop just took your money. It was a mathematical certainty that you'd lose." "The bucket shops... would see that there was a large (long ) interest in some stock. They would combine and (sell) a few thousand shares of that stock on the Real Exchange... and run the price (down) a point or two. That was enough to wipe out all the margins of the customers who were (long)" These quotes are from 1923. Perps are not innovative.

@qthomp That's your boy. You own this mess.

“Obama sent Iran pallets of cash” “We have destroyed Iran’s nuclear” “There will be no payments” “Iran’s military has been decimated” Trump’s two recent major policy blunders (tariff rollout and Iran War) have both 1) disproportionately hurt lower/middle income Americans and 2) given the world the playbook how to beat the US in a conflict (cause market volatility).

@Polymarket Homeboy is still butt hurt that his stupid XFL stunt was a flop.

JUST IN: Trump suggests the NFL should be renamed because “it’s not football.”

@qthomp @Strategy @JoshMandell6 thoughts from the resident mnav expert? Any insight is appreciated.

Absolutely mind boggling that @Strategy is still levering up. They're selling $MSTR shares that are worth 80 cents on the dollar to buy $1 dollar bills. Relative to its BTC holdings after accounting for debt and preferred equity liabilities, MSTR common trades at ~0.8x NAV. This behaviors tells me the market's message needs to get louder for it to be understood.

@unusual_whales The real fun is watching Magats try to spin this as a win :)

BREAKING: Iran says draft US deal includes oil sanctions waiver, nuclear limits and asset release, per Reuters

@MikeZaccardi Do they mention which scenario is more likely? Or all equally possible?

HSBC's Macro Scenarios... boom boom?

@LawrenceLepard @grok what is steins law as it relates to this post?

A reminder. The blue line is where the income is generated to service the red line. Stein's Law comes to mind.

@dampedspring Do VPNs not exist in this scenario?

If the US prohibited all US citizens from owning bitcoin similar to what they did with gold and ironically said the price that they'd exchange Fiat dollars for those who's bitcoin they were forcing to be sold to $3500 a coin where do you think bitcoin would trade globally in US dollars?

@Polymarket We all realize how stupid this is....right?

JUST IN: Trump says Obama's Iran deal would have let Iran get a nuclear weapon “six years ago.”

@brucefenton @CaitlinLong_ She makes it really hard to be a Democrat. If her and Shumer were tied to the tracks, and I was in the middle of a moral simulation, I would have a hard time deciding which lever to pull.

You paid for this limo. You paid for the driver. You paid for the person holding the camera. You paid for whoever wrote the script for her. Warren’s personal entourage costs taxpayers $5 million a year and she votes for spending 500 times that every year.

@dampedspring So you understand that hyperliquid is stepping into a wide open, untapped market with zero tradfi competition? Dumb money wants perps and they are willing to use a VPN to buy them.

@BardoFaraday Perps serve zero benefit for the big boys. Zero.

I get a kick out of the children describing the radical difference between hyperliquid and tradfi. The olds have seen at least a dozen versions of market structure evolution which were transformative over our lives. AND ones that made no differnence and stayed dark or peripheral. We have the perspective to know the import of a change. This one is a tweak at best.

@anistotle_ @JaredKubin I don't get it... would love to read. My brain struggles to find the links right now. Is amzn the abuser?

@JaredKubin Yes, well-put and this reminds me so much of literature on domestic violence it is crazy (I am so serious - the entire AI ecosystem is brimming with it as parallels. I've been pondering writing on this)

The real question is why would $AMZN nuke a company they own 20% of? Doesn’t make sense right? Well… Always follow the money… the timeline is ANT has recently filed to go public. Given then $SPCX ipo… mountains of cash, liquid currency… less reliance on AWS cash means independence. It means Anthropic can build its own data centers, buy its own silicon, and break away from total reliance on AWS What if AMZN did this to keep them reliant on the AWS ecosystem right at the finish line? compute lock in likely the most valuable part of the arrangement for next 5 years my best guess Maybe Jassy is finally getting some more gangster in him

@JaredKubin What did amzn do? I thought anthropic disabled the models?