Patrick Sullivan

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Patrick Sullivan

Patrick Sullivan

@BasicMountain

Flagtown NJ and Denver CO Katılım Nisan 2013
498 Takip Edilen31.2K Takipçiler
Patrick Sullivan
Patrick Sullivan@BasicMountain·
@jakeformayor @scalias_boner @SaffronOlive To clarify: I could see them erring low because “selling out quickly” was something they’d prioritize over other factors, but “we’ll shoot so low that people will get mad, thus generating conversation” would get you kicked out of any meeting I’ve ever been in.
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Jake Browne
Jake Browne@jakeformayor·
@scalias_boner @SaffronOlive I thought the same thing but @BasicMountain had some good points: x.com/BasicMountain/… (also hey dude!)
Patrick Sullivan@BasicMountain

@jakeformayor Print to order is a pain in the ass and eats into margin. Given how niche the product may appear to be I could easily see publishing erring conservative when they came up with allocation months ago. “We’re going to underprint to juice up negative sentiment” just isn’t a thing.

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Saffron Olive
Saffron Olive@SaffronOlive·
I find the idea that the problem with the DanDan Secret Lair drop was that it was too cheap hilarious. The issue is players not being able to get the cards are a reasonable price, increasing the cost quite literally does the opposite.
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Patrick Sullivan
Patrick Sullivan@BasicMountain·
@drewlevin I’m not a huge Ruins fan but at least the decision isn’t being presented to you each turn unless you sign up for that.
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Drew Levin is on vacation (see pinned post)
Drew Levin is on vacation (see pinned post)@drewlevin·
An important game design lesson: do not create a button that, when pressed, gives someone a worse time. People will press it (because they think they want what it outputs) and then be upset that you gave them a worse time.
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Patrick Sullivan
Patrick Sullivan@BasicMountain·
@jakeformayor Print to order is a pain in the ass and eats into margin. Given how niche the product may appear to be I could easily see publishing erring conservative when they came up with allocation months ago. “We’re going to underprint to juice up negative sentiment” just isn’t a thing.
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Jake Browne
Jake Browne@jakeformayor·
Attention remains the most important currency. When major tournament winners struggle to get 20K views, why not buy discourse for $60,000? To put it another way, the product is not this Secret Lair, it's the conversation they'll generate with it.
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Jake Browne
Jake Browne@jakeformayor·
"This was a cash grab." Magic made $1.7 billion in 2025. That's $4.6m per DAY. 60k in DanDan was a ROUNDING ERROR to Hasbro. They hope that you talk about this. That it trends on here. And that you keep directing your rage at the resellers that make whole system work for them.
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Patrick Sullivan
Patrick Sullivan@BasicMountain·
@Vinncent 1) Just started reading The Jakarta Method, can’t wait for this. 2) I just tried subbing annually and it’s not clear the charge went through, is this common/expected?
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Vincent Bevins
Vincent Bevins@Vinncent·
Announcement — I am now seeking support to officially launch a little global affairs magazine. We plan to pay writers all around the world, and pay them well, to do our small part to save knowledge and human civilization. It's a Substack. Please join us
Vincent Bevins tweet media
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Patrick Sullivan
Patrick Sullivan@BasicMountain·
@zdch Wile E. Coyote struggles to build coalition to run through A Tunnel Painted on the Side of a Mountain
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Keith
Keith@KeithCapstick·
And the Dominican Republic is eliminated from the WBC on a missed ball 4 🤘
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Cassius Marsh Sr.
Cassius Marsh Sr.@KingCash_7191·
Biggest and most valuable magic the gathering original art collection I have ever seen and likely the biggest in the world! $15,000,000 worth of art going up for sale! All one collector. #magicthegathering #art #vegas
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Brian "BoshNRoll" Coval
Brian "BoshNRoll" Coval@BoshNRoll·
I had a dream I was recording a podcast with @BasicMountain and John Malkovich. It was during a power outage where the only thing that worked was my computer, and only in a certain position. Malkovich kept moving things and getting ballistically mad at me when it stopped working.
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Matt Bennett
Matt Bennett@ThirdWayMattB·
@adamjohnsonCHI At the time of the statement, the nominal objective was eliminating their nuclear stockpile. Obviously, Trump has now offered a dozen others. But we always hope American troops succeed in their mission when they are in harm's way.
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Nile (like the river)
Nile (like the river)@NileJoanRivers·
big work day tomorrow listening to the todo speech over and over to hype myself up
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Patrick Sullivan
Patrick Sullivan@BasicMountain·
@zdch Maybe on the margins, and presumably you have a lot of theories and data with that specifically. For those on the firmer parts of the range, I think being R or D is part of their identity and part of how they see themselves as a good person, closer to religion than anything else.
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Zac Hill
Zac Hill@zdch·
@BasicMountain Yeah and Woodard has done good research on this too, but again the causal variable isn’t the piece of paper with the data on it in 1860. There is a chain of cause and thereby an intervention within the chain of cause, since the chain of cause is itself an ‘intervention’.
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Zac Hill
Zac Hill@zdch·
Amazing how many people implicitly or even explicitly suggest the opposite: that right-wing media has mystical mind-control powers over *all* potential voters, but that *right-leaning* voters cannot be persuaded at all via any mechanic.
Lakshya Jain@lxeagle17

There remains this backwards, nihilistic sentiment from the left that "Trump's voters are immovable". They're movable. They just don't think like highly-educated liberals or online right-wing posters. But they move — like now, when 15% of Trump's 2024 voters disapprove of him.

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Patrick Sullivan
Patrick Sullivan@BasicMountain·
@TruedawnFm @zdch My current working theory is that the “average voter” isn’t a centrist as such but some incoherent, randomly assembled collection Sanders/Massie instincts and whoever can articulate some version of that the best will do well nationally.
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Frank Moon
Frank Moon@TruedawnFm·
@BasicMountain @zdch Politically invested voters in America have thier entire identity wrapped up in thier worldview and its corresponding champions. It takes ALOT to break that kind of dissonance loose, tho I do think Trump is flirting with that line.
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Patrick Sullivan
Patrick Sullivan@BasicMountain·
@zdch I don't think so--a former data person who I think you'd trust told me that, when trying to figure out why certain Southern counties voted more Red than others, the factor with the strongest correlation was "higher the % of the slave population was in 1860, the more they vote R."
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Zac Hill
Zac Hill@zdch·
@BasicMountain But who gets ‘baked in?’ The whole thing is a winning contest, right? Like if the answer is ‘well XYZ opinions get locked in at young age,’ that just shifts the arena of suasion to whatever happens at that age, right? And this idea is transferrable to whatever the postulate is?
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Patrick Sullivan
Patrick Sullivan@BasicMountain·
@zdch FWIW Trump 1&2, Obama, and Biden all had nearly identical lowest % WRT approval rating. That suggests to me something about the amount of support "baked in" and it takes something like the '08 crash to shake people in those camps loose.
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Zac Hill
Zac Hill@zdch·
@BasicMountain I agree that the model shouldn't be "oh these are regular voters with broadly similar qualities as the electorate writ large," but Trump isn't using magic or sorcery to lure and retain the loyalties of his supporters. Some mechanic for suasion by definition must exist.
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@jakeformayor @scalias_boner @SaffronOlive @drewlevin @Vinncent @zdch @TheResleevables @KeithCapstick