
Beezer Clarkson
6.8K posts

Beezer Clarkson
@Beezer232
Looking to change the world for the better through technology, investing & partnerships. MD @ LGT Capital Partners. ✍️ at @Open_LP , Co-host Origins Podcast 🎤




What is your most encouraging “just wait” advice for young couples/new parents?

Flashback to chatting w/ @foundersfund's Luke Nosek when he led the first investment in @SpaceX. From old PE Week Wire newsletter in 2008:

I am going to piss off so many friends by saying this but if I could invest in one emerging manager sub $50M fund, it would be @Joshuabrowder. A few things you need to know about Josh: - He makes the founders he invests in live in his spare room at the Four Seasons until they raise their seed - He turned his $100K Thiel Fellowship grant into a $10M angel portfolio - He was one of the first cheques into Micro1, Yuzu and many more - When he found out his father had been taken by the Russians, he was playing poker… (legend!) I have never had founder references like the ones I got on Josh. I spoke to 12 founders. He averaged 9.2/10 across all 12. This is one of the best episodes we have done in a long time and my notes below: 1. Why I Believe Young Founders Make the Best Founders Young founders have no safety net and no option but to win. Corporate engineers often default to hiring big teams, while young founders stay focused on building the product. Their grit is much higher. Without that level of dedication, most people quit at the first real obstacle. 2. How I Test Founder Commitment Before Investing To filter out tourist founders, schedule a pitch meeting at 11:00 PM. Elite founders accept immediately. Mediocre ones push it out by weeks. During the interview, ask rapid-fire questions. If they claim a specific revenue number, have them pull up their live Stripe account on the spot. Look for tactical customer acquisition goals, not vague partnership promises. 3. Why I Make Founders Live With Me After Investing The best early investments come from deep day-one relationships. Living together creates a focused, one-person accelerator where founders get a three-week crash course and avoid years of mistakes. The rule is simple: co-founders share one room near the Four Seasons and cannot check out until they raise an institutional seed round. 4. Why Pre-Seed Companies Fail Startups usually fail for three reasons: they run out of money, they run out of hope, or the co-founders break up. Money problems usually come from weak pitching, which is why founders should drop the deck and show the product live. To maintain hope, ignore Silicon Valley vanity signals and focus on customer progress. To avoid team blowups, handle mechanics like vesting early. 5. What Founders Need to Know About Signing With a VC VCs will say almost anything to get you to sign on the spot. They reverse-engineer your desires and claim they know every customer you want to meet. Impressionable founders fall for it, but the promised intros often never happen. Never sign in the room. Take the night to think clearly. 6. My Biggest Lesson on Reserve Investing Holding back reserves for later rounds has a huge opportunity cost. The biggest value creation happens at pre-seed, so saving capital for a Series A follow-on can limit your upside. Deploying upfront into 20 to 30 pre-seed companies can produce far better long-term returns. Go all-in early. (links below)













This podcast will make you smarter than Leopold Aschenbrenner at an AI investing conference. - Anthropic Raises $45BN but Falls Short on Compute - Are OpenAI Back in the Game with GPT5.5 & Codex? - Why Google is a Bigger Buy Than Ever Before - China Blocks Manus $2BN Deal to Meta - Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditor I sat down with @rodriscoll and @jasonlk and my notes below: 1. Why does Dario at Anthropic have such a hard job predicting the compute demands? The capital intensity of building an AI leader is unprecedented; every $1 of run-rate revenue requires approximately $4 to $5 of CapEx to support it. A CEO must forecast demand two years in advance, which is incredibly risky. Underestimating demand leaves you with insufficient compute to serve users, while overestimating it results in billions of dollars in "stranded capacity". 2. What the public markets are getting wrong about the SaaS-pocalypse The market currently believes specific coding vibes or models are the primary threat, but the true danger is what AI agents decide to pick. Agents will ultimately choose the vendors and LLMs for most workflows, rendering tools like project management software useless because agents have no need for them. Companies like OpenAI are racing to win the "agent wars" to ensure their APIs are the default choice for these autonomous systems. 3. Why Google is a mega-buy on the back of the Anthropic investment Google is positioned as a primary winner because it benefits whether users choose Gemini or Anthropic. They possess "infinite capacity" compared to other players, allowing them to route compute surplus between their own needs and their various customers. This massive cash flow and infrastructure flexibility make them a "win-win-win" in the current AI arms race. 4. Multi-year contracts don't matter. Deferred churn is still churn. Multi-year contracts are often a place where "mediocre" management hides to mask underlying business problems. While a customer might be locked into an eight-year cycle through standard upfront terms and renewals, they are essentially just taking that time to find a better enterprise solution. If a customer eventually leaves, the churn was merely deferred, and the terminal value of the company remains impacted. 5. What happens to the distributions from Manus? Do the investors have to give the money back? When a regulatory body like China attempts to "unwind" an acquisition like Meta's purchase of Manus, there is a near-zero chance that venture investors will return the capital already distributed. The real pressure point is on the acquiring corporation and the technology itself, rather than the VC funds. Such rulings are primarily designed to prevent similar deals from occurring in the future. 6. The two great wars that no one is talking about Two subtle but massive "battles" are currently unfolding: the US vs. China AI war and the resulting social dislocation. We are seeing a rise in "social unrest" expressed through billionaire taxes and penthouses taxes as layoffs from AI automation begin to impact the workforce. These themes of geopolitical competition and internal inequality will be the defining political stories of the decade. (links below)


Fred Wilson is one of the greatest VCs of all time. He is also my new partner at @USV and I'm lucky to say that. We've known each other for years, but becoming partners felt like a reason to get to know him even better. So a few weeks ago, we walked around Union Square and caught up about what @fredwilson has learned over nearly 40 years of VC, how AI may be making the profession obsolete, how to build an investment thesis, why he believes the Knicks will win the NBA title this year, and a few of his long held grudges. Here's a video of that conversation, set at Union Square, Madman Espresso, the USV office, and Leon's on Broadway. Chapters: 3:22 - That time Fred wrecked Mike on Twitter 6:01 - Pre-Internet VC in NYC 9:50 - Early Internet Investing and Raising for Flatiron Partners 11:59 - The Dot-com Crash Killed Fred’s First Firm 14:28 - Fred’s Grudge Against Coffee Shop 16:35 - How to Pick the Right Team at Right Time 18:28 - AVC blog, Gawker’s Nick Denton, TypePad.com 20:44 - Jim Kramer invented Tweeting 21:46 - Why Fred Bet on Twitter Early 23:39 - Building Agents on Claude Code and Tasklet 26:20 - Claude Mythos and Doomerism 27:27 - The Original USV Thesis 29:19 - Network Effects and Brad’s Thesis 31:29 - Coinbase: Thesis, Investment, Outcome 33:18 - Investing in Decentralized AI 34:59 - Open Source AI 36:55 - AI Kill Zone: Legal AI is Dead, Energy Investments 42:37 - USV Agents Will Replace Its Partners 47:00 - Are VC’s building themselves out of a job? 48:30 - Leon’s, NYC’s New Tech Watering Hole 50:52 - Generative Art 53:18 - SOLIENNE: AI Artist trained by Kristi Coronado 54:25 - What About AI Scares Fred 55:40 - Societal Backlash to AI 58:10 - Advice to Early Career VCs: There’s More Risk in Not Doing Deals 1:00:48 - Fred’s Biggest Regrets: Saying No Because of Price 1:04:17 - Fred’s Bold Prediction for the Knicks and the Mets

Fred Wilson is one of the greatest VCs of all time. He is also my new partner at @USV and I'm lucky to say that. We've known each other for years, but becoming partners felt like a reason to get to know him even better. So a few weeks ago, we walked around Union Square and caught up about what @fredwilson has learned over nearly 40 years of VC, how AI may be making the profession obsolete, how to build an investment thesis, why he believes the Knicks will win the NBA title this year, and a few of his long held grudges. Here's a video of that conversation, set at Union Square, Madman Espresso, the USV office, and Leon's on Broadway. Chapters: 3:22 - That time Fred wrecked Mike on Twitter 6:01 - Pre-Internet VC in NYC 9:50 - Early Internet Investing and Raising for Flatiron Partners 11:59 - The Dot-com Crash Killed Fred’s First Firm 14:28 - Fred’s Grudge Against Coffee Shop 16:35 - How to Pick the Right Team at Right Time 18:28 - AVC blog, Gawker’s Nick Denton, TypePad.com 20:44 - Jim Kramer invented Tweeting 21:46 - Why Fred Bet on Twitter Early 23:39 - Building Agents on Claude Code and Tasklet 26:20 - Claude Mythos and Doomerism 27:27 - The Original USV Thesis 29:19 - Network Effects and Brad’s Thesis 31:29 - Coinbase: Thesis, Investment, Outcome 33:18 - Investing in Decentralized AI 34:59 - Open Source AI 36:55 - AI Kill Zone: Legal AI is Dead, Energy Investments 42:37 - USV Agents Will Replace Its Partners 47:00 - Are VC’s building themselves out of a job? 48:30 - Leon’s, NYC’s New Tech Watering Hole 50:52 - Generative Art 53:18 - SOLIENNE: AI Artist trained by Kristi Coronado 54:25 - What About AI Scares Fred 55:40 - Societal Backlash to AI 58:10 - Advice to Early Career VCs: There’s More Risk in Not Doing Deals 1:00:48 - Fred’s Biggest Regrets: Saying No Because of Price 1:04:17 - Fred’s Bold Prediction for the Knicks and the Mets

Fred Wilson is one of the greatest VCs of all time. He is also my new partner at @USV and I'm lucky to say that. We've known each other for years, but becoming partners felt like a reason to get to know him even better. So a few weeks ago, we walked around Union Square and caught up about what @fredwilson has learned over nearly 40 years of VC, how AI may be making the profession obsolete, how to build an investment thesis, why he believes the Knicks will win the NBA title this year, and a few of his long held grudges. Here's a video of that conversation, set at Union Square, Madman Espresso, the USV office, and Leon's on Broadway. Chapters: 3:22 - That time Fred wrecked Mike on Twitter 6:01 - Pre-Internet VC in NYC 9:50 - Early Internet Investing and Raising for Flatiron Partners 11:59 - The Dot-com Crash Killed Fred’s First Firm 14:28 - Fred’s Grudge Against Coffee Shop 16:35 - How to Pick the Right Team at Right Time 18:28 - AVC blog, Gawker’s Nick Denton, TypePad.com 20:44 - Jim Kramer invented Tweeting 21:46 - Why Fred Bet on Twitter Early 23:39 - Building Agents on Claude Code and Tasklet 26:20 - Claude Mythos and Doomerism 27:27 - The Original USV Thesis 29:19 - Network Effects and Brad’s Thesis 31:29 - Coinbase: Thesis, Investment, Outcome 33:18 - Investing in Decentralized AI 34:59 - Open Source AI 36:55 - AI Kill Zone: Legal AI is Dead, Energy Investments 42:37 - USV Agents Will Replace Its Partners 47:00 - Are VC’s building themselves out of a job? 48:30 - Leon’s, NYC’s New Tech Watering Hole 50:52 - Generative Art 53:18 - SOLIENNE: AI Artist trained by Kristi Coronado 54:25 - What About AI Scares Fred 55:40 - Societal Backlash to AI 58:10 - Advice to Early Career VCs: There’s More Risk in Not Doing Deals 1:00:48 - Fred’s Biggest Regrets: Saying No Because of Price 1:04:17 - Fred’s Bold Prediction for the Knicks and the Mets






