Moist Burro

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Moist Burro

Moist Burro

@BefuddledBuddle

It’s time for the percolator | Balanced portfolio advocate

Katılım Mart 2013
187 Takip Edilen222 Takipçiler
Moist Burro
Moist Burro@BefuddledBuddle·
You can stand by your strategy; you can also stand by the fact that you, despite being an “AI & Semiconductor Researcher,” gave bad technology & investment advice 10 names, best result? +0.64% $MSFT Most names are a 20%+ loss You got it wrong, plain & simple I told you a month ago this was reckless investment advice and you dug your heels in, perhaps start off your conservative investment pivot by advocating for a balanced portfolio
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Paradis Labs
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs·
I stand by that post, and my principles. It also seems like you ignored the caveat I put out in that post? I also have the right to pivot on new information - do you think I have a crystal ball to forsee US/Iran tensions re-escalating? Or institutions going risk-off at the drop of a hat? Or any range of the other dozen macro events which have intensified over the past couple of weeks? E.g. tarriffs etc.
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Paradis Labs
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs·
If you're curious about my personal strategy right now: I'm currently doing nothing apart from sitting on, and accumulating cash. I would much rather average up into my core positions instead of attempting to call the market bottom, with the awareness that we're back in a risk-on market. No one has a crystal ball, so attempting to call when semis bottom in this current macro environment is a fool's game in my opinion. Ultimately, macro-wise, there's just too much going on for my liking: - US/Iran war - Inflation, rates, and Fed decisions - Mid terms - Earnings season - Leverage unwinds - Instutions broadly being risk-off All of these variables are intertwined and are dancing together in the eye of the storm - all are driving semis lower, which, as we know, are already very high beta names. That said, I agree that many names are currently at very compelling prices even compared to last week. Mainly because fundamentally, I strongly believe that many AI/semis related names have strengthened over Q2 vs. Q1. We've already seen that with a couple of earnings beats/raises such as $INTC and even $GOOGL. So if you *are* buying, I would strongly suggest a slow and steady DCA approach with the complete awareness that prices could certainly go lower from here. For me, in the short-term, there's really three things I want to see happen before my capital goes back to work: 1. Fed on the 29th - a hold w/ Warsh not talking us into more hikes, and those hike odds bleeding back down. 2. Oil price rolling over, or a genuine step-down in Iran tensions. That's ultimately the root cause of this semis downturn in my opinion. 3. Dispersion coming back where semis names react rationally to their own earnings again. The Intel sell-off today made no logical sense, fundamentally speaking. Things could turnaround quickly. But for now, I'm happy to sit on the sidelines and wait until we start to see some momentum return to the market. --- I am however still taking short-term swing trades into company earnings like last quarter. NFA, but for next week I am looking at potentially: - $SIMO - Kioxia - Phison - $COHU - $FORM - $RDDT Just for very quick swing trades with my "fun" money allocation.
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs

Macro uncertainty is what's driving semis equities right now. More than hyperscaler capex forecasts and other earnings releases. The Fed's policy meeting next week could lead to a hawkish surprise, which is resulting in institutional investors playing things cautiously at the moment. Ongoing US/Iran escalations -> rising oil prices -> prolonged inflation -> potential rate hike. - Brent crude up 35% in three weeks - US 10Y yield set for its biggest weekly increase since early May - Fed funds futures traders now price in a 36% chance of a rate hike decision next week by the Fed (up from just 13% last week) So ultimately, the prolonged war is having a negative second-order impact on semis. Which is why all your favourite names - from $NBIS to $SNDK to $AAOI - are all moving in lockstep regardless of their individual sub-sector or any sort of business fundamentals. Another example is $INTC erasing all it's post-market gains today after reporting solid earnings yesterday. That would not happen under any sort of clear/stable macro conditions. Business fundamentals for the semis will certainly superceed all macro uncertainty in the long-run.

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dnap
dnap@dnapway·
bubble boi says you should full port the CXMT IPO and he'll move to China if it IPOs at $130B "If you can get access to CXMT’s IPO, you should just full port that." "I was thinking of pawning everything I own to get more money to do this, because it’s extremely mispriced. It’s extremely low." "The thing about CXMT is, despite them being Chinese, they don’t really have an HBM product. The demand for just commodity DRAM is so high, and they still get to charge that premium. They’re mainly selling to Chinese companies, right?" "There’s been a lot of talk that CXMT is going to crash the DRAM market. I mean, it’s not in their incentive to do that either, because they don’t make good HBM, but they can sell to all the Chinese companies and make tons of money." "If you just look at what Micron trades at, what CXMT is going to IPO at, and then look at how many bits of DRAM they’re shipping, CXMT is extremely cheap. But that's partly because they're Chinese, right?" "Even at a $400B valuation, it’ll grow into it. I don’t think it’s the end of the world. But at $130B, I’m moving to China if I can get access."
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Kevin Xu
Kevin Xu@kevinxu·
It's only a winner if you actually realized gains.
Kevin Xu tweet media
Asymmetrical Bets@AsymmetricBets_

This past month has been particularly hard on the market, but it's important to follow the right people who will help you navigate through it all. Here at Asymmetrical Bets we've given plenty of winners throughout the month. Here are a few of our big movers. $NVEC +57% $AEHR +50% $CLSK +16% and over 25% from when we called it $PENG +14% and over 40% from when we called it

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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
Jim Cramer has said he is 'struggling to have reasons to buy' in this market
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Moist Burro
Moist Burro@BefuddledBuddle·
Chart not collaborating, out
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Moist Burro
Moist Burro@BefuddledBuddle·
Making a momentum play on $onds
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Moist Burro
Moist Burro@BefuddledBuddle·
@RJCcapital The first good money making idea you’ve had in a while
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Moist Burro
Moist Burro@BefuddledBuddle·
Unreal man lmao Genuinely don’t understand these pre-earnings bets, I did it on $peng only because I had 90% certainty they would beat and I was actually red previous to the announcement Responsibility is on both the trader and advocate for a stupid trade like a fresh long into tech earnings
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Fund.TBD $UMAC $LPTH 🐋
Fund.TBD $UMAC $LPTH 🐋@fundmyfund·
$MXL -17% post earnings report Old enough to remember when it was +6% yesterday morning while NASDAQ was -2.5% as degenerates piled into the stock thinking it would pull another 58% move post earnings That's gambling people - nothing else. Just go to Vegas if this is your 'strategy'; at least you get free drinks.
Fund.TBD $UMAC $LPTH 🐋 tweet media
Fund.TBD $UMAC $LPTH 🐋@fundmyfund

$MXL -9% in pre mkt to under $83 (pink arrow) Yesterday at the open a rush of lemmings decided to get in because last earnings report in April the stock surged 58% the next morning Simplistic thinking won't get you far in the stonk market

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Moist Burro
Moist Burro@BefuddledBuddle·
Forgot to mention, took a small position in $lkncy Most people who drink coffee can’t tell if it’s single-origin, sun-dried with the cherry intact or literally ground a year before you drink it The Chinese, I think, are well suited to capitalize on this market dynamic
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Moist Burro
Moist Burro@BefuddledBuddle·
Exiting $obe position for now for a small profit, may be back before the weekend
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Shams Charania
Shams Charania@ShamsCharania·
BREAKING: LeBron James is signing with the Philadelphia 76ers on a two-year, $8 million deal with a player option, Klutch Sports Group and Klutch CEO and Game Over show host Rich Paul tells ESPN.
Shams Charania tweet media
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Moist Burro
Moist Burro@BefuddledBuddle·
@DoomDotOrg Same, I was in too many names based on momentum tbh. Took down my names held by nearly 50%. Drawdown by about 10%, would have been more if I hadn’t been playing the $crak thesis for the last few months as a hedge.
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Cerberus
Cerberus@DoomDotOrg·
I was forced to trim, well really hacksaw a lot of my positions. Maybe not going to 2.5x leverage again lol. What's left, I'm just going to take the pain and remember that these companies will print money for the next three years. The selloff after Google blew up Cloud numbers and raised capex literally makes zero sense at all.
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Moist Burro
Moist Burro@BefuddledBuddle·
Man honestly hard to know, I actually think memory is putting up a good fight $dram was up 20% for the week yesterday. My guess is the sector is first to spring back along with $nbis types scaling compute I had a decent position in memory like you, trimmed a bit this week but I’m still a believer for the next 1.5 years I also like the software names here showing strength, if models are already out that improve efficiency, there is no reason they wouldn’t improve margins ($rop). Similarly, software to improve data center operations should be a unique play ($snow $ddog). I know software is not a fan favorite but medium term money is made swimming upstream IMO Only thing that will improve narrative rn is ending the Iran bullshit, I expect a few difficult weeks I believe Trump is pretty committed to big strikes this weekend
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: Intel, $INTC, erases its +15% post-earnings rally and falls -4% on the day. The stock has now erased -$90 billion in market cap since 4:20 PM ET yesterday.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Moist Burro
Moist Burro@BefuddledBuddle·
Saw that and had some hope, people are just losing sight of obvious trends though Nothing in the market is screaming strength, US is on the verge of war again and the tech pumpers are ignoring it Only tech I’m buying is stuff with deep moats or cheap high quality AI integration plays
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Cerberus
Cerberus@DoomDotOrg·
@BefuddledBuddle Yeah that one looked suspicious and I stayed away. Then again, everything is getting nuked today which doesn't help. They actually were recovering pre-market.
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⚽️📡
⚽️📡@pennycheck·
Highly suggest checking out yesterday's earnings call from $ROP Double beat and second consecutive raise and listen to the call they have the ai duality ive been mentioning and they arent even baking it into the guide yet
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Keşfet

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