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644 posts
@patienceisking My original position is already sized quite big. But I am quite tempted to buy more at These levels
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@BenU427 Agree. This guy is moving funds from $APG to $TIC 😉
Rainman@patienceisking
A hedge fund that initiated a position in $APG in Q2 2020 has been unloading it. Since then, the stock has surged almost 600%. Now, they're aggressively building a position in $TIC, making it the #1 holding in their portfolio.
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@patienceisking Yeah, all good. I am not saying the thesis is not valid. I am in there in size and quaterly report was not bad. Inam actually surprised the stock went downhill so much.
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@BenU427 Let's give him a full year before any judgment on $TIC. $APG has generated sizable returns for investors (6x since Mar 2020), and it took 2–3 years before actually taking off. Martin E. Franklin, who acquired and took $APG to listing in 2020, is now sitting on the board of $TIC.
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@patienceisking Citrini did back when the thesis was laid out. I think entry then was around 11$
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@SJCapitalInvest Thanks mate. You made me aware of the stock and I sized quite well. AMPX is one of two stocks Lifting my Portfolio today/the last viel days. Much appreciated
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$AMPX
IF YOU TOOK THIS RIDE WITH ME LET ME KNOW!!
Do me a favor and drop me a good GIF on this post.
These are my favorite days because my comments are flooded with people making money.
Doesn’t always work this way so we gotta celebrate it!
I live for that.
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$AAOI just put up its strongest year ever. Up 13% AH
- Q4 revenue: $134.3M (+34% YoY)
- Gross margin: 31.2% vs 28.7% last year
- Non-GAAP loss: -$0.01/share. Essentially breakeven.
- Full year: $455.7M. That's double 2024's $249.4M.
- Q1 2026 guide is $150M–$165M. Margins holding.
Capacity being built out right now for next-gen datacenter products.
Both CATV and datacenter demand are accelerating simultaneously. That doesn't happen often.
$AAOI
KawzInvests 🦑@KawzInvests
GPUs do the thinking. Optical transceivers move the data between them. Without both, AI does not work. Everyone owns $NVDA. Almost nobody owns the company wiring it all together $AAOI $AAOI is one of the few shipping 800G transceivers at volume to hyperscalers right now. Not in qualification. Commercial shipments confirmed December 2025. The difference between $AAOI and names like $ALMU or $AXTI: vertical integration. $AAOI manufactures its own InP lasers in Sugar Land, Texas. Competitors source externally and face laser shortages. $AAOI does not. While China restricts Gallium and Germanium exports, $AAOI offers hyperscalers full supply chain sovereignty on US soil. Customers: $MSFT, $AMZN ($4B warrant agreement) ~$450M+ revenue run rate. Revenue nearly doubled YoY. Gross margins expanding from 25% to 31%. Capacity scaling to 200K units per month by mid 2026. CEO Chih-Hsiang Lin on the Q3 call: "Customers will invest AOI maybe $200 million under discussion... working very close with Texas State for support, including the U.S. government... net profit should be more than $150 million next year or even higher." $ALMU is pre-revenue. $AXTI is commodity substrates with China exposure. $AAOI is the deployed optical backbone of the GPU buildout.
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@LukeAne10 @monaco_biotech It was/is kind of both for me. The thesis seems to be right. Numbers are improving. So I dont see an issue having it as a longterm hold at all
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@BenU427 @monaco_biotech Ah thanks, only knew that it was i guess a higher conviction play at some time with interviews etc. Also got in recently, do you think it has longterm value or just a trade for you?
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$STIM +36% 📈 AH
Neuronetics Announces Selected Preliminary Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results
• BioPharmCatalyst biopharmcatalyst.com/company/STIM/n…
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@LukeAne10 @monaco_biotech The stock was one of the high conviction trades in the Citrini Substack. Then the guy covern it (and other healthcare/medtech picks) got fired. Stock was dumbed then. You can imagine what happens if the largest fintwit group dumbs small cap stocks (hint: end of october 25)
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@sparbuchfeinde Japp, ist auch der Fall bei mir. Auch wenn ich bestenfalls unregelmäßiger FDP Wähler war. Das Elterngeld zu streichen fühlt sich wie ein Schlag ins Gesicht an und meine Frau hat nahezu genauso reagiert
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Ich bin viel in der BWLer-Bubble unterwegs und manche Leute mögen sich über meine zahlreichen Bekannten amüsieren.
Was ich jedoch mit Sicherheit sagen kann:
2021 haben in dieser Bubble 90% FDP gewählt. Nichts hat diese Gruppe (~ 25-40 Jahre alt, einigermaßen gutes Gehalt) stärker von der FDP entfernt als die komplette Streichung des Elterngelds für Gutverdiener.
Viele Kommentierer verstehen nicht, dass es bei dieser Diskussion nicht um Geld, sondern um Wertschätzung geht.
Junge Menschen rutschen bereits mit dem 1,3-fachen des Durchschnittsgehalts in den Spitzensteuersatz. Zahlen absurd hohe Steuern & Abgaben. Zum Teil bereits mit dem ersten Job direkt nach dem Studium.
Und wenn es dann darum geht selbst eine staatliche Leistung in Anspruch zu nehmen, gibt es nichts. Während für alles andere Unmengen an Geld zur Verfügung gestellt wird. Das ist das Thema.
Deswegen ist es auch kein Paulaner Garten, sondern durchaus Realität, dass die FDP 2025 aus dem deutschen Bundestag geflogen ist und in aktuellen Umfragen lediglich 2-3% steht.
Der Umstand, dass die 175.000 Euro nicht an die Inflation angepasst werden, führt übrigens dazu, dass jedes Jahr mehr Familien von der Streichung betroffen sind.
sparbuchfeinde@sparbuchfeinde
Ehemalige Kommilitonin (32) von mir. Marketing bei DAX-Konzern, verdient 85.000 Euro brutto. Ihr Mann (37) hat Karriere in der Beratung gemacht, 160.000 Euro brutto. Die beiden erwarten jetzt ihr erstes Kind. Sie will ein Jahr Elternzeit nehmen. Elterngeld gibt es für das Paar nicht. Sie verdienen zu viel. Zitat der werdenden Mutter: „Das ist schon krass. Die Politik spricht immer von Frauen fördern. Und dann kriegst du ein Kind und stellst erstmal fest, dass du finanziell komplett abhängig von deinem Mann wirst.“
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*ASML POSTS NEW ORDERS/BOOKINGS AT €13.16 BILLION VS. €6.85 BILLION ESTIMATE $ASML
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Hard as it is to accept it, we in Europe must come to terms with the fact that this is precisely the kind of country a significant percentage of the US population wants to have.
Europe cannot be the ally or the partner of this.
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@mineralstocks @respeculator @ShowerCapAM Appreciate the insights. Looking for some mining exposure in commodities at the moment beside my 20% physical PM allocation. Looks promising
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So my $EQR.AX model got feedback from two very clever guys: @respeculator and @ShowerCapAM, both adding some good thoughts.
In short, if we assume fixed APT ~$1,350 (today) and a future rate of 300k mtu (I worked with ~280k), CF would reach $220M/ann., (~20% above my estimate).
Respeculator@respeculator
Comment seems fine. Realised pricing is around 75% of APT with a one month lag. Today APT is $1,350/mtu - so they would realise around $1,000/mtu. Costs are ~US$80m pa - to run both operations. Production is around 150,000mtu pa moving to 300,000mtu. Run 2 cases.. 1) APT $700, 75% ASP, $80m cost, 150,000mtu 2) APT $1,350, 75% ASP, $80m cost, 300,000mtu The first breaks even. The second generates US$220m (company trades ~US$500m)
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@mineralstocks The current market cap is already at 750 million according to Yahoo
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Hard-working, smart guy. Let's cross-reference his thoughts with the latest quarterly (31st of Dec):
APT low: quarter avg low US$698/mtu
Actual realised prices (what they really got paid):
- Group realised: US$478/mtu
- Barruecopardo: US$591/mtu
- Mt Carbine: US$456/mtu
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Bid Bird@BidBird10
Energy Fuels $UUUU at $1B was probably the most asymmetric r/r opportunity I have ever seen. Literally free money. That being said, I think EQ Resources $EQR at US$200M might be even better... Margin of safety, which is usually the most important metric to me, is so ridiculously high here, that even with subpar operational performance this should double or triple relatively easy. With top-notch operational performance we are talking about 6-10x returns. Tungsten price also have a lot of room to drop before I’m starting to getting worried. This play should work with $500/MTU upwards and we are currently at $800/MTU. Of course higher the better. Most important thing here is that this is not like Almonty $AII which is already priced to perfection. This is priced to depression and that is the key here which allows us to have a very high margin of safety regarding the equity performance in the next 12 months. Tungsten price: De-risked with a high margin. Market cap: De-risked with a high margin. Short term liquidity: De-risked with a margin. These are the exact setups you want to find from the market. For this trade to not work out? We need to witness a generational clusterfuck operational performance from EQR. Seriously impressed if they somehow can mess everything that badly, given they have two mines in production with commodity price well above breakeven. That is of course always possible and you never can’t get away from all the normal mining related risks. However, going into 2026 I’m comfortably long as EQR is now my second biggest position due the exceptional margin of safety levels. Kudos to @Alexsei88 for getting this baby on my radar.
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